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Prashanth Krish | Portfolio Yoga - Part 74

Stock of the Day – MindTree

Mind Tree has been one of the stronger performers in the recent rally that was seen in IT stocks. The daily chart seems to show a classical pattern of a Cup. Now, this can evolve in two ways

1. We can see a reaction and if the reaction is not more than 50% of the size of the cup, the pattern will become a cup and handle formation

2. The stock can just brush across the high of the cup in which case, this will be a pure breakout of a Cup formation with target comign to around 2000.

Or it can just react from the current juncture and break the low of the cup which will be indicative (and not a clear case of ) double top formation.

Of the three, I currently favor the first option looking at the strength of the stock with the probability of this being a top being pretty low.

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Stock of the Day – Voltas

On the weekly charts, Voltas is still pretty much in bearish territory with the stock yet to cross above the highs it made in 2012. All time highs made in 2007 / 08 and 2011 remain pretty far away for even consideration.

But its on the daily charts, that we see some substantial action indicative of a change in trend. The stock is placed just below its short term resistance and a move above 130 should give a clear breakout on the medium term charts as well. Above 130, 155 is the next level of resistance for the stock.

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Stock of Day – Muthoot Finance

Muthoot Finance and Manapuram Finance are the two major NBFC companies that deal with loans backed with Gold. But RBI restrictions combined with falling gold price has had a impact on the stock price in recent months. The first sign of change of trend came about in January when RBI eased the norms for extendingloans against gold jewellery as collateral.

Today, once again, both gold companies have broken out of short term zones with good volumes. On the longer term charts though, the chart of Muthoot appears much better compared to Manapuram which is still very much in the bearish zone on the medium to long term.

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Stock of the Day – Godfrey Phillips

Godfrey Phillips is India’s second largest tobacco company and recent results have resulted in a strong upward trajectory for the stock though as the chart indicates, this is not the first time we have seen such huge gains over a single week. While ITC has since 2011 nearly doubled in price, Godfrey has moved nowhere ( a stagnation which if accompanied by good resuolts would mean that the stock is cheaper than it was in 2011.

The current move has been accompanied by volumes higher than when we last jumped up giving credence to the possibility of this rally continuing further. But with the stock already having risen by more than 25%, a ideal entry point will be when we see a correction unless this turns out to be a run away rally.

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Dummies Guide to becoming a Stock Expert on Twitter

Way back in time, when Yahoo had those Chat rooms, in the finance room, one could see a huge number of stock experts advising others of the virtues of buying / selling a company stock due to reasons that could not be listed on one’s fingers (use of toe fingers was very much recommended). 

In India, I have seen a similar trend on certain websites / forums where experts outnumber the number of investors in India giving advise all through the day (and even night as and when one suffers from periods of insomnia. I haven’t been a active participant in Facebook (nor was on Orkut during those times) and hence am not sure though based on hearsay, I would say that there are plenty of experts out there as well.

But the game changer for the experts has been the arrival of Twitter. Your omnipresence is no longer confined to the small set of persons who like you on Facebook or have stumbled onto your blog / forum. Here, not only can you recommend on your own time line but also tag others (who may or may not even want to know) to ensure that your calls aren’t wasted for the minute problem of not enough followers.

So, here is the dummies guide to becoming a Stock Expert on Twitter.

1. First have a plan – When I say a plan, its not about a plan on what stocks you want to see or what method you want to use. What I suggest is that you first define your end goal. Do you want to boost your ego with XXXX followers or do you really want to become rich by selling SMS plans / Newsletters, etc. If you aren’t sure, not to worry, you can make one up as we go.

2. Create a Twitter Account with a Quirky handle (remember, its always easy to remember small number of characters – We humans have a limit on that).

3. Decide as to how many calls you want to make per day. This is important since we want to track the winners and a very small sample size is not ideally suited to it.

4. Do not make enemies. And if you want to make, make sure that they are big enough to make them ignore you (you do not want people questioning your claims, do you?)

5. Keep a track of all recommendations you give – doesn’t matter if it was given a week or month or even a year back. After all, even a broken clock is right twice

6. Suckers are out there in plenty, unfortunately you need to attract them since there are just too many of your kind out there. One way would be to spend time answering their queries on what should I do. Don’t worry too much, just toss a coin and give a appropriate answer based on your current mood

7. While you are climbing up the ladder of destiny, there will be few who will be hell bent on pulling you down using what they call as quantifiable tests. Arguing with them leads to peril, hence keep a list of quotes which can be helpful in such situations. Do not engage with them unless your fame is being targeted

 8. Always and this is important, Always use a photo that looks appealing. Peoples belief in you is greater when there is a photo compared to a egg and best of all, it doesn’t even have to be your photo to start with (who really knows you, right?)

9. Track (in terms of ability to obtain charts / news) on as many markets as possible. Diversification is the key. Who knows which market follower suddenly find you the most knowledgeable analyst tracking their markets

 10. Finally, activity is the key. Since success is not guaranteed, you need to throw as many dices / darts as possible and hope some of them will stick (and random luck dictates they will). Also a large tweet line will ensure that tracking your calls is as tough as finding the needle in the hay-stick.

So, there you go. I hope these 10 commandments will help you in becoming a twitter expert in due course of time and help you find enough suckers who you can sell whatever you want to sell. 

Is the Pressure Cooker loosing steam

In 2010 / 2011, one sector outperformed every other sector in the Indian markets. While Pressure Cookers aren’t seen as a sector, all stocks in that sector saw a tremendous rally, a rally that is better displayed in the relative comparison chart below.

 

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As can be seen from the above chart, while Nifty has returned a minuscule return of 16.57% since 2010,  TTK Prestige which was the first to take off has given a return of 628%, Hawkins (BSE Code: 508486) returned 423.50% and Butterfly Gandhimathi Appliances (BSE Code: 517421) a return of 185%. 

But when one looks at the Year by Year returns, the momentum seems to be slipping. Here is a table of returns lodged by the stocks since 2009,

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For the first time in 6 years though, all three stocks are into negative territory. Lets look at the Individual charts to see whether we can find any opportunities at the current stage.

Butterfly Gandhimathi Appliances

Of the three stocks, this has given the least amount of returns . Due to the long period of range based trading, the daily chart of the stock shows not much of a signal. The stock is trading just below the 200 day EMA and MA but based on the number of times we have crisscrossed those levels, it makes little sense to read too much into it.

The weekly chart (chart below) though provides us with a much better reference points. 240 seems to be the long term support while 400 sees to the resistance level to be crossed.

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TTK Prestige

On the weekly charts, TTK Prestige shows a clear ascending triangle pattern. Right now though, we seem to be approaching the lower trend line (violation of which would make the entire pattern invalid). Major support below that level would suggest a move to the support levels indicated on the chart below.

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Hawkins Cookers Ltd

Compared to the previous two stocks, Hawkins has shown way greater volatility on both the rise and the fall. While I have drawn a channel on the weekly charts, the weight we can give to the pattern is low due to the number of touching points being just two in number.

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To conclude, while all stocks seem to have started to weaken on the short term, on the long term, the current fall is nothing more than a pause in the long term rally (if at all this evolves into one). If the lower trend line is not broken, TTK appears to the best bet as of now though Hawkins with its Higher High Higher Low formation also is a pretty good bet as long as it doesn’t break below 1630 

Stock of the Day – Selan Exploration Tech

After years of bearishness, this stock suddenly found the legs to do the 100 meters in 5 secs :). The rise in the stock in last 4 weeks has cleared the losses a investor saw in the last 3 years. Talk about speed.

Today though the stock made a Doji. While Doji’s generally indicate indecisiveness and aren’t something to track or crow about, the fact that this has happened at the junction of the previous all time high does bring into question the ability f the stock to continue to move higher. 

As a adage goes which says “Rome wasn’t build in a day” and while we shouldn’t overly focus on just this aspect, if you are already long or intending to go long on this stock, today’s high and low (give or take a couple of percentages since markets being dynamic, we cannot be static in our expectations) will provide us with teh next clue as in whether we need to go long the stock or shall we see some amount of profit booking.

But regardless of what happens, this stock is now firmly in the grip of the bulls (for now)

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