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US Blog Roll

This is a feed from major US Blogs on Finance & Investment. If you find any new site that you feel is worth listing out here, please ping me either in the comments column or in the contact us form.



Abnormal Returns Forecast-free since 2005


Comments on: - | Adam H Grimes Musings on markets, risk, and life


    The Aleph Blog Helping Institutions and Ordinary People Invest Better by Focusing on Risk Control

    • The Crisis at the Tipping Point
      by David Merkel on 9th August 2017 at 12:55 pm

      ================== Ten years ago, things were mostly quiet.  The crisis was staring us in the face, with a little more than a year before the effects of growing leverage and sloppy credit underwriting would hit in full.  But when there is a boom, almost no one wants to spoil the party.  Yes a few bears […]

    • The Best of the Aleph Blog, Part 33
      by David Merkel on 8th August 2017 at 7:47 am

      In my view, these were my best posts written between February 2015 and April 2015: One Dozen Reasons Why the Average Person Underperforms In Investing, Part 1 One Dozen Reasons Why the Average Person Underperforms In Investing, Part 2 Most of this boils down to chasing past performance, neglecting fundamentals, and neglecting basic risk control. […]

    • Why is the Stock Market So High?
      by David Merkel on 6th August 2017 at 4:33 am

      ========================== Assuming that you could throw stones on the financial internet, it would be hard to toss a stone and miss articles talking about how high the stock market is.  One good article from last week was Why Do U.S. Stocks Keep Hitting Records? Here Are Five Theories from the Wall Street Journal.  Here were the […]

    • Redacted Version of the July 2017 FOMC Statement
      by David Merkel on 26th July 2017 at 6:38 pm

      =========== June 2017 July 2017 Comments Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in May indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising moderately so far this year. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the labor market has […]

    • The Best of the Aleph Blog, Part 32
      by David Merkel on 25th July 2017 at 3:05 pm

      ============================== In my view, these were my best posts written between November 2014 and January 2015: Stay Calm Political changes rarely create the policy/legal changes that people fear or hope for, so relax. Problems in Simulating Investment Returns There are seven problem areas in investment return modeling that are rarely dealt with, and certainly never […]


    All Star Charts Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets

    • [Premium] Monthly Conference Call Video Recording August 2017
      by JC on 22nd August 2017 at 3:13 pm

      The post [Premium] Monthly Conference Call Video Recording August 2017 appeared first on All Star Charts. […]

    • [Premium] Should Stock Market Bulls Be Concerned About Credit Spreads?
      by JC on 17th August 2017 at 5:59 pm

      The way I learned it was that the Bond Market is smarter than the Stock Market. I’ve heard theories that it’s because the Bond Traders are smarter than stock jockeys. Maybe it’s because the Bond market is a lot bigger than the Stock Market. Maybe it’s all a bunch of nonsense. Who knows? The way […] The post [Premium] Should Stock Market Bulls Be Concerned About Credit Spreads? appeared first on All Star Charts. […]

    • The Two Most Important Charts In The World Right Now
      by JC on 16th August 2017 at 6:07 am

      Every market environment is different. It’s changing every day. What might give us insight into what’s happening during one period of time in the market doesn’t guarantee that it will help in the future, or ever again for that matter. Back in 2008-2009, correlations spiked all over the world and the US Dollar was moving […] The post The Two Most Important Charts In The World Right Now appeared first on All Star Charts. […]

    • [Premium] Members-Only Conference Call Monday August 21st at 7PM ET
      by JC on 15th August 2017 at 4:06 pm

      Every month I host a conference call for All Star Charts Premium Members where we discuss ongoing themes throughout the global marketplace as well as changes in trends where new positions would be most appropriate. This includes U.S. Stocks & Sectors, International Stock Indexes, Commodities, Currencies and Interest Rate Markets. We’ve been bullish towards US and Global […] The post [Premium] Members-Only Conference Call Monday August 21st at 7PM ET appeared first on All Star Charts. […]

    • [Premium] A Not So Random Walk Through The Entire S&P500
      by JC on 12th August 2017 at 6:10 pm

      It’s the middle of the summer and everything is quiet. Even the slightest bit of volatility brings in the panic. It’s pretty amazing to watch. There are two schools of thought here. First, the historic short positions in S&P500 Volatility Index Futures have their monthly unwind, and stocks get adjusted accordingly. It’s a volatility trade unwinding […] The post [Premium] A Not So Random Walk Through The Entire S&P500 appeared first on All Star Charts. […]


    Alpha Architect Empowering Investors Through Education

    • Portfolio Allocations using Enterprise Multiples (and others)
      by Jack Vogel, Ph.D. on 22nd August 2017 at 2:20 pm

      A common question asked in the factor investing field is the following -- "how much of the model's performance is driven by sector allocations, and how much is driven by security selection?" Our answer is to simply buy Value stocks or Momentum stocks, regardless of sector constraints. Why? Well a nice anecdote (but not data) is that investing in "cheap" technology stocks was not a great idea in the internet bubble crash. The post Portfolio Allocations using Enterprise Multiples (and others) appeared first on Alpha Architect. […]

    • Academic Research Insight: Abusing ETFs
      by Elisabetta Basilico, PhD, CFA on 21st August 2017 at 3:00 pm

      Title: ABUSING ETFs Authors: UTPAL BHATTACHARYA, BENJAMIN LOOS, STEFFEN MEYER, ANDREAS HACKETAL Publication: REVIEW OF FINANCE, VOL.21, 2017 (version here) What are the research questions? By studying the trading data (provided by a German brokerage house) of a large (6,949) group of individual self-directed investors over the period from 2005-2010, the authors attempt at answering:[ref]out [...] The post Academic Research Insight: Abusing ETFs appeared first on Alpha Architect. […]

    • MARCH FOR THE FALLEN WEEKLY TRAINING SERIES: UNIFORM/GEAR
      by Wesley R. Gray, Ph.D. on 19th August 2017 at 12:00 pm

      Team: This post is part four in the training series for those participants in this year's March for the Fallen event. We are about 4 weeks out from the event and Dave Babulak is helping educate March for the Fallen participants with tips/pointers each week leading up to the event. Dave's knowledge package will include the following: Training [...] The post MARCH FOR THE FALLEN WEEKLY TRAINING SERIES: UNIFORM/GEAR appeared first on Alpha Architect. […]

    • Trend-Following with Valeriy Zakamulin: Performance Measurement and Outperformance Tests (Part 5)
      by Valeriy Zakamulin on 18th August 2017 at 5:44 am

      We consider an investor and a financial market that consists of only two assets: one risky asset and one safe (or risk-fee) asset. An example of a risky asset is an investable stock market index. When it comes to the safe asset, even though financial theory assumes its existence, there are no completely risk-free assets [...] The post Trend-Following with Valeriy Zakamulin: Performance Measurement and Outperformance Tests (Part 5) appeared first on Alpha Architect. […]

    • Academic Research Insight: Can Bond Portfolios Be “Factorized”?
      by Tommi Johnsen, PhD on 14th August 2017 at 3:47 pm

      Title: Factor Investing in the Bond Market Authors: Patrick Houweling and Jeroen van Zundert Publication: Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 3 No. 2, 2017 (https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2516322) What are the research questions? Can the concepts contained in equity “factors” translate to the corporate bond market? Do single factor bond portfolios generate alpha? Do multifactor bond portfolios contribute additional [...] The post Academic Research Insight: Can Bond Portfolios Be “Factorized”? appeared first on Alpha Architect. […]


    Andrew Thrasher – technical analysis

    • Why August Could be One Bear of a Month
      by Andrew Thrasher, CMT on 1st August 2017 at 10:30 am

      Since my last blog post, titled “What I’m Seeing That Has Me Concerned About the Volatility Index” we saw a near 50% rise in the Volatility Index ($VIX) intraday nine days later on June 29th, which caught quite a few Continue reading Why August Could be One Bear of a Month→ The post Why August Could be One Bear of a Month appeared first on . […]

    • What I’m Seeing That Has Me Concerned About the Volatility Index
      by Andrew Thrasher, CMT on 20th June 2017 at 10:30 am

      I’ve had a great response to my Dow Award paper, Forecasting a Volatility Tsunami, with it being downloaded over 3,000 times since April. I really appreciate the support and the positive feedback I’ve received so far. Last week I had Continue reading What I’m Seeing That Has Me Concerned About the Volatility Index→ The post What I’m Seeing That Has Me Concerned About the Volatility Index appeared first on . […]

    • What’s In A Name?
      by Andrew Thrasher, CMT on 13th June 2017 at 10:30 am

      “What’s in a name? That which we call a rose By any other name would smell as sweet.” Romeo and Juliet One of my goals for 2017 was to read more. While I’m nowhere close to the Patrick O’Shaughnessy-level of Continue reading What’s In A Name?→ The post What’s In A Name? appeared first on . […]

    • What’s You’re Biggest Regret?
      by Andrew Thrasher, CMT on 1st June 2017 at 1:15 pm

      Dr. Travis Bradberry recently shared an article he wrote on LinkedIn titled, “Five Choices You Will Regret Forever.” With a title like that, it’s hard not to click. I’m a sucker for good clickbait. I had a personal connection to Continue reading What’s You’re Biggest Regret?→ The post What’s You’re Biggest Regret? appeared first on . […]

    • Price and Seasonal Weakness Plague Mid Cap Equities
      by Andrew Thrasher, CMT on 4th May 2017 at 10:30 am

      Last week I discussed the growing divergence within the S&P 500 as the largest components of the index were outperforming the smaller $SPX stocks. To continue on that topic, below we’re going to look at the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index. Continue reading Price and Seasonal Weakness Plague Mid Cap Equities→ The post Price and Seasonal Weakness Plague Mid Cap Equities appeared first on . […]


    A Wealth of Common Sense Personal Finance, Investments & Markets

    • Managing Sequence of Return Risk
      by Ben Carlson on 21st August 2017 at 12:37 am

      In the 30 years ended 2016, the S&P 500 returned just over 10% per year. Compounding at that rate, fifty grand invested at the start of 1987 would have grown to nearly $875,000 by the end of last year. Not bad. Besides the usual caveats — taxes, fees, behavior, diversification, etc. — the problem with...... […]

    • A La Carte Financial Advice
      by Ben Carlson on 18th August 2017 at 12:56 am

      Jason Zweig and Morgan Housel are two of my favorite writers and thinkers. They explain the complexities of business, markets and human behavior better than anyone. I’ve learned a lot from these two when it comes to writing, communicating and focusing on what matters. I don’t disagree with these guys very often but I’m going...... […]

    • The Canadian Housing Market is Bananas
      by Ben Carlson on 17th August 2017 at 1:20 am

      After seeing countless stories and statistics on the Canadian housing market I did some research to check things out for myself. The numbers I found are staggering. They make the U.S. housing bubble that led up to the financial crisis look like an amateur. I don’t throw around the word ‘bubble’ loosely but the Canadian housing...... […]

    • Investing in Yourself (Even When It Seems Irrational)
      by Ben Carlson on 15th August 2017 at 2:19 pm

      A couple years ago I read an article about a new online brokerage firm that was geared towards young people called Robinhood. It sounded intriguing so I opened up an account to give it a test run. The great thing about Robinhood is that all trades are commission free. I trade infrequently but I’m always...... […]

    • Your Brain on $
      by Ben Carlson on 14th August 2017 at 1:05 am

      “The single greatest challenge you face as an investor is handling the truth about yourself.” – Jason Zweig In a presentation I gave a couple weeks ago I used the following slide: Your Money & Your Brain by Jason Zweig is my favorite book on human behavior so I’m constantly sourcing, re-reading and using material from...... […]


    Behavior Gap Exploring human behavior with a Sharpie

    • Big Announcement: Doing Scary Things
      by Carl Richards on 14th August 2017 at 3:28 pm

      I'm starting a new project. There. I said it. In today’s episode, I’m taking the leap, and sharing the latest about the Do It Anyway Project. I hope you’ll join me. Listen time: 13:48 The post Big Announcement: Doing Scary Things appeared first on Behavior Gap. […]

    • A Nap Trumps Half-Working
      by Carl Richards on 8th August 2017 at 1:00 pm

      Last week, I gave myself a public beating over my recent discovery of how I actually use my time. One thoughtful reader sent me an email telling me not to be so hard on myself and suggested that if I try to maximize every second of my life, I would certainly wring the fun out of it. While this was kind, it made me realize I had failed to make one really important point about the way we spend our time. The post A Nap Trumps Half-Working appeared first on Behavior Gap. […]

    • It’s Personal: Handling Fear & Rejection in Business
      by Carl Richards on 11th July 2017 at 7:28 pm

      When you think of your business as incredibly personal, it becomes an expression of your opinion. And that's risky. If the business fails, it can feel like a rejection of who you are. So it should come as no surprise that doing this is scary. But what should we do with that fear? A question for all the entrepreneurs out there, today on BG Radio. Listen time: 4:33 The post It’s Personal: Handling Fear & Rejection in Business appeared first on Behavior Gap. […]

    • Been Cheated Lately? Have You Tried Letting Go?
      by Carl Richards on 10th July 2017 at 6:06 pm

      Today, on BG Radio, a story about Bob. Bob got taken advantage of. For a lot of money. Like, a TON of money. Money Bob couldn't afford to lose. But he did lose it. And now, he has to figure out what to do. What he decides may surprise you. Listen time: 7:17 The post Been Cheated Lately? Have You Tried Letting Go? appeared first on Behavior Gap. […]

    • Half Working or Real Working
      by Carl Richards on 7th July 2017 at 8:13 pm

      Finding time is hard. I often think about all the things I would do if I could just find the time. But really, what a crazy thing that is to say. Find the time? Where should I look? Did I hide it in the bushes outside the White House? Can I find it on Aisle 10 at Whole Foods next to the biodegradable toilet paper? I’ve let this question bounce around in my head for the last few months, and I think I figured out where the time went to hide. Let me explain with a small but painful story. The post Half Working or Real Working appeared first on Behavior Gap. […]


    Behavior Gap Exploring human behavior with a Sharpie

    • Big Announcement: Doing Scary Things
      by Carl Richards on 14th August 2017 at 3:28 pm

      I'm starting a new project. There. I said it. In today’s episode, I’m taking the leap, and sharing the latest about the Do It Anyway Project. I hope you’ll join me. Listen time: 13:48 The post Big Announcement: Doing Scary Things appeared first on Behavior Gap. […]

    • A Nap Trumps Half-Working
      by Carl Richards on 8th August 2017 at 1:00 pm

      Last week, I gave myself a public beating over my recent discovery of how I actually use my time. One thoughtful reader sent me an email telling me not to be so hard on myself and suggested that if I try to maximize every second of my life, I would certainly wring the fun out of it. While this was kind, it made me realize I had failed to make one really important point about the way we spend our time. The post A Nap Trumps Half-Working appeared first on Behavior Gap. […]

    • It’s Personal: Handling Fear & Rejection in Business
      by Carl Richards on 11th July 2017 at 7:28 pm

      When you think of your business as incredibly personal, it becomes an expression of your opinion. And that's risky. If the business fails, it can feel like a rejection of who you are. So it should come as no surprise that doing this is scary. But what should we do with that fear? A question for all the entrepreneurs out there, today on BG Radio. Listen time: 4:33 The post It’s Personal: Handling Fear & Rejection in Business appeared first on Behavior Gap. […]

    • Been Cheated Lately? Have You Tried Letting Go?
      by Carl Richards on 10th July 2017 at 6:06 pm

      Today, on BG Radio, a story about Bob. Bob got taken advantage of. For a lot of money. Like, a TON of money. Money Bob couldn't afford to lose. But he did lose it. And now, he has to figure out what to do. What he decides may surprise you. Listen time: 7:17 The post Been Cheated Lately? Have You Tried Letting Go? appeared first on Behavior Gap. […]

    • Half Working or Real Working
      by Carl Richards on 7th July 2017 at 8:13 pm

      Finding time is hard. I often think about all the things I would do if I could just find the time. But really, what a crazy thing that is to say. Find the time? Where should I look? Did I hide it in the bushes outside the White House? Can I find it on Aisle 10 at Whole Foods next to the biodegradable toilet paper? I’ve let this question bounce around in my head for the last few months, and I think I figured out where the time went to hide. Let me explain with a small but painful story. The post Half Working or Real Working appeared first on Behavior Gap. […]


    Collaborative Fund Collaborative Fund is a leading source of capital for entrepreneurs pushing the world forward.

    • The Unsolvable Puzzle
      on 18th August 2017 at 12:44 pm

      Leo Szilard was one of the smartest people of the 20th Century. He conceived the idea of nuclear energy, patented the process of using it in a power plant, and helped Albert Einstein write the letter that sparked the Manhattan Project. All in his 30s. Like any genius, Szilard’s curiosity was diverse. After World War II he became a biologist, attracted to a field that hadn’t been explored as deeply as physics. The new field didn’t just change what he learned, but how he learned. Szilard spent hours a day in the bathtub, solving physics problems in his head. Biology ruined that routine, because, as Szilard later said, he constantly had to get out of the tub to look up a fact. Physics is guided by rational laws that have never, and will never, change. A master like Szilard could reason his way through problems like nuclear energy with only his mind as a tool. If an idea in his head followed the laws and reason of physics, it would in real life, and would continue working forever. That’s how a guy designed a nuclear bomb in the bathtub. Biology is different. It’s guided by things like accident and mutation, so specific behaviors sometimes defy logic and can change entirely as evolution bulldozes the past. The flu virus has killed 731,000 Americans in the last 40 years – more than died in World War II – and not for lack of effort by the medical community. A virus that mutates and evolves means a vaccine that might work today won’t work tomorrow. And since the mutation itself is an accident, researchers are kept in perpetual scramble. Like an unsolvable puzzle. The physics vs. biology analogy is relevant in investing. Too many investors view their field like a physicist in the bathtub, searching for something that’s logical and permanent, while not enough view it like a virologist, needing to update their knowledge and tactics to evolve with the chaos of what happens to work now. *** Benjamin Graham’s book The Intelligent Investor was published almost 70 years ago, and is still one of the best-selling investment resources. It sells because so much of its message is timeless. But investing evolves, and Graham’s book did, too. It went through four editions before his death in 1976. Jason Zweig, who annotated Graham’s book, once wrote about using it as a practical guide in modern times: Graham was constantly experimenting and retesting his assumptions and seeking out what works — not what worked yesterday but what works today. In each revised edition of The Intelligent Investor, Graham discarded the formulas he presented in the previous edition and replaced them with new ones, declaring, in a sense, that “those do not work anymore, or they do not work as well as they used to; these are the formulas that seem to work better now.” One of the common criticisms made of Graham is that all the formulas in the 1972 edition are antiquated. The only proper response to this criticism is to say: “Of course they are! They are the ones he used to replace the formulas in the 1965 edition, which replaced the formulas in the 1954 edition, which, in turn, replaced the ones from the 1949 edition, which were used to augment the original formulas that he presented in Security Analysis in 1934.” Ben Graham’s brilliance was grasping what part of investing was timeless and what part required revision. His philosophy was rooted in principles of investor behavior that rarely change, but for tactical matters he wasn’t afraid to get out of the tub and look up new facts. Just before he died, Graham was asked whether detailed analysis of individual stocks – a tactic he became famous for – remained a strategy he favored. He answered: In general, no. I am no longer an advocate of elaborate techniques of security analysis in order to find superior value opportunities. This was a rewarding activity, say, 40 years ago, when our textbook was first published. But the situation has changed a great deal since then. What changed was: Competition grew as opportunities became well known; technology made information more accessible; and industries changed as the economy shifted from industrial to technology sectors, which have different business cycles and capital uses. Admitting this in real time is a hard skill. And it’s rare, because abandoning past strategies feels like defeat, and creates anxiety over what to do next. Obliviousness and denial are more common responses. But it’s a mandatory skill in any field where competition hacks away at the existence of outperformance, and social and regulatory forces evolve. Think about the investment factors that have changed in just the last 20 years. Private equity assets have gone from $600 billion to more than $5 trillion. The number of public companies has halved. Index funds have attracted effectively all public equity asset flows. Annual reports went from being sent in the mail to being scanned for keywords by supercomputers. The cost of storing industrial amounts of data went from millions of dollars on rack servers to thousands of dollars in the cloud. Social media connects what used to be walled off. Stocks went from being traded by humans to high-frequency traders, and now the HFTs have competed themselves down to zero profits. The Federal Funds rate averaged 6.5% from 1960 to 2000. Now it’s been below 1% for 105 of the last 188 months. Looks what’s changed just this year: ICOs have raised more money for startups than venture capital funds. SoftBank launched a fund that is larger than all U.S. IPO proceeds raised from 2010-2012. I’ve heard rumors that things are unusual in Washington. Buying stocks for less than hard book value worked, until it didn’t. A dividend yield below Treasury yields was a sign of an overvalued stock, until it wasn’t. Discounted cash flow models were an edge, until a spreadsheet could make one. Convertible bond arbitrage was profitable, until other investors realized just how profitable. This doesn’t happen in a field like physics. Gravity doesn’t get arbitraged away due to popularity. It’s hard to look at how much markets evolve and expect a successful investing strategy to remain stagnant over time. There’s an irony in the number of investors who expect the companies they invest in to adapt and keep up with competition, but they, themselves, expect to invest like a physicist in a bathtub. We solved the nuclear energy puzzle, the how-to-put-a-man-on-the-moon puzzle, and the send-information-around-the-world puzzle. But we will never permanently solve the investment puzzle, because solutions have shelf lives, and expiration dates that are usually only obviously in hindsight. *** There will come a day when investing strategies and norms that work today will grow old and expire. Two groups will form: Those who embrace the reality of the industry’s chaos and adapt, and those who stay in the tub, embracing a world that adheres to the logical rules stuck in their head. The hard part is that most of investing is stable over time. Most tactical changes are regretted. It’s difficult to tell, without hindsight, whether a strategy is expired or just temporarily out of favor. Long-term investing tends to work specifically because all strategies go out of favor from time to time, testing investors’ wills at the cost of returns. Distinguishing a paradigm shift from a temporary cycle is what separates good investors from momentarily lucky investors. The investing industry is filled with brilliant people and terrible results. The reason is that the field has less to do with the kind of knowledge that makes a good physicist, and more to do with the rare intellectual flexibility and nimbleness that makes a good flu vaccine researcher. Leo Szilard once said: “If you want to succeed in the world, you don’t have to be much cleverer than other people. You just have to be one day earlier.&rdquo […]

    • What We're Reading
      on 18th August 2017 at 12:27 am

      Here are a few good articles the Collaborative Fund team came across this week. Brand Walmart tries to increase its influence, finds it’s hard: Wal-Mart hopes to leverage the popularity of these niche, trendy sites with subsets of consumers who wouldn’t be caught dead in a Wal-Mart store. And the kids are not having it. ModCloth and Bonobos are being cyberbullied by their fans online, who are making fun of the brands for what they see as selling out to the corporate machine. “The thing I loved about Modcloth is that I knew the clothes I bought there couldn’t be found at Macy’s and weren’t worn by the masses,” said Connie Warner, who started a Boycott ModCloth page on Facebook. “No more. I’ve unsubscribed from their emails. I refuse to shop at a store owned by Walmart.” Statistics Reader beware: When reading people like Mr. Gladwell, you’re probably thinking many of the studies’ conclusions sound right but don’t really reflect your own experience. That’s probably because you’re not a hung-over grad student. Andrew Ferguson of the Weekly Standard studied behavioral economic studies and discovered many are done by grad students observing their peers doing trivial tasks. Then researchers draw hard conclusions from this. Rather than a study of human nature, behavioral science is, Mr. Ferguson observes, “the study of college kids in psych labs.” Endurance A great post on the power of profitability: [Startup] profitability doesn’t represent failure; rather, it is an unmovable milestone that captures so many values those outside of the world of startups hold dear- self reliance, independence, ownership, control …Owning your destiny. It’s an incredibly powerful concept anywhere else but in the world of startups. Precision A very insightful post on the butterfly effect: Growth Lyft’s progress has been incredible: Lyft’s share of the ride-hailing market has hit record levels in nearly 30 major U.S. cities in the past month, by dollars spent, according to new data. In the top 10 markets, Lyft’s highest share is 39.5% in San Francisco, and 33.5% in Los Angeles, according to Second Measure, which tracks credit card transactions. Overall, Lyft has between 20% to 30% of the U.S. market, depending on who is counting, to Uber’s 70% to 80%. But the data show that Lyft has become a growing problem for Uber in some major cities, which could limit Uber’s ability to turn profitable. The U.S. is the world’s top market in terms of revenue per rider, and ride fares could reach more than $10 billion this year. Without profits in the U.S., Uber may not be able to continue investing in developing markets, such as India, Latin America and Southeast Asia. Management Hard to get around this: “The reason [for why great companies failed] is that good management itself was the root cause. Managers played the game the way it’s supposed to be played. The very decision-making and resource allocation processes that are key to the success of established companies are the very processes that reject disruptive technologies: listening to customers; tracking competitors actions carefully; and investing resources to design and build higher-performance, higher-quality products that will yield greater profit. These are the reasons why great firms stumbled or failed when confronted with disruptive technology change. Have a good weekend. […]

    • What We're Reading
      on 11th August 2017 at 12:40 pm

      Here are a few good articles the Collaborative Fund team came across this week. Rebound Detroit is on an upswing: Tech employment in Detroit is now at 78,510, a 40.7 percent increase from 2011. The non-tech sector only grew by 18.9 percent in that time …Detroit is more appealing now, and the Millennial population is growing. The city has seen a 9.2 percent increase in its 20-29-year-old population since 2010, ranking it sixth in millennial population growth in large U.S. cities, according to the study. Brand A good piece on Ritholtz Wealth Management: When you consistently show who you are, what you’re interested in, what you care about, and what you stand for on a daily basis, you engender trust. You can certainly attempt to do that with an end goal in mind, but as Buffett says, “it takes 20 years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it.” For these guys at RWM, it is just routine, unwavering authenticity. Every day I receive their blogs in my inbox. Every morning I get Ritholtz’s Morning Reads from Bloomberg. Every Friday afternoon I get Barry’s latest podcast in my podcast app. It’s just routine at this point. I have made it a part of my daily and weekly agenda because I place such high value on Barry and team’s work. Often times it’s also entertaining and pretty funny. Middlemen Amazon is investing heavily in its own brands: Amazon is selling products across a wide array of categories, using a host of brands that do not exist outside the confines of amazon.com and do not make it clear that they are Amazon-made products. Trawling through over 800 trademarks that Amazon has either been awarded or applied for through the US Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO), Quartz identified 19 brands that are owned by Amazon and sell products or have product pages on amazon.com. Communication The next billion internet users: Instead of typing searches and emails, a wave of newcomers—“the next billion,” the tech industry calls them—is avoiding text, using voice activation and communicating with images. They are a swath of the world’s less-educated, online for the first time thanks to low-end smartphones, cheap data plans and intuitive apps that let them navigate despite poor literacy. Complication Same as it ever was: Valuation The practice is not as egregious as it sounds, but is still important to understanding venture-backed valuations: About half of private companies with valuations exceeding $1 billion, known as unicorns, wouldn’t have earned the mythical title without the use of complex stock mechanics, according to a study by business professors at the University of British Columbia and Stanford University … One provision frequently afforded to investors is called a liquidation preference. It guarantees a minimum payout in the event of an acquisition or other exit. The study found that it can exaggerate a company’s valuation by as much as 94 percent. Researchers pointed to AppNexus, a digital advertising startup. The company sold shares with a liquidation preference that guaranteed new backers at least double the amount they put in if AppNexus is acquired. Have a good weekend. […]

    • Why Everyone Should Write
      on 9th August 2017 at 7:37 pm

      Everyone should write. You know why? Because everyone is full of ideas they’re not aware of. You don’t talk about these ideas, even in your own head, because you’ve never put them into words. They’re gut feelings. Intuitions. You use them a dozen times a day. But you’d shrug your shoulders if someone asked why. How you react to career risk. Why you invest the way you do. Why you like some people and question others. We’re all brimming with opinions on these topics that we may never discuss, even with ourselves. Like phantom intelligence. Intuition is strong enough to put these ideas into practice. But intuition isn’t a tool; it’s a safety net at best, and is more often the fuel of biased decisions. Turning gut feelings into tools means understanding their origin, limits, and how they interact with other ideas. Which requires turning them into words. And writing is the best way to do that. Writing crystallizes ideas in ways thinking on its own will never accomplish. The reason is simple: It’s hard to focus on a topic in your head for more than a few seconds without getting distracted by another thought, and distractions erase whatever you attempted to think about. But words on paper stick. They aren’t washed away by the agitator in your head who won’t shut up about the tone of an email someone just sent you. You might be able to hold focus just briefly in your head, but a sentence on paper has all the patience in the world, waiting for you to return whenever you’re ready. It’s hard to overemphasize how important this is. Putting ideas on paper is the best way to organize them in one place, and getting everything in one place is essential to understanding ideas as more than the gut reactions they often hide as. Take four questions: What is your edge over competitors? How do you react to unforeseen risk? What have you changed your mind about recently? What part of your job are you not good at? These are vital questions that most of us, if asked on the spot, couldn’t answer well. Not because we haven’t thought about them; we certainly have. But the thoughts are probably vague, unsubstantiated, or pure emotions. Many people’s response to the first question would be an uncomfortable pause, a ponder, and a lump in the throat. Which says a lot, just not in words. It’s not until you put thoughts on paper that everything from ignorance to denial to unfulfilled potential is viewed in the raw, ready to be analyzed. Sometimes writing is encouraging. You realize you understand a topic better than you thought. The process flushes out all kinds of other ideas you never knew you had hiding upstairs. Now you can apply those insights elsewhere. Other times it’s painful. Forcing the logic of your thoughts into words can uncover the madness of your ideas. The holes. The flaws. The biases. Thinking “I want this job because it pays a lot of money” is bearable. Seeing the words on paper looks ridiculous. Things the mind tends to gloss over the pen tends to highlight. Warren Buffett once said: Some of the things I think I think, I find don’t make any sense when I start trying to write them down. You ought to be able to explain why you’re taking the job you’re taking, why you’re making the investment you’re making, or whatever it may be. And if it can’t stand applying pencil to paper, you’d better think it through some more. A common question people ask professional writers is, “Where do you get your ideas?” A common answer is, “From writing.” Writers don’t know exactly what they’ll write about until they start writing, because the process crystallizes the fuzzy ideas we all have floating around. This chicken-and-egg problem is probably why writing is intimidating for some people. They don’t think they can write because – in their head, as this moment – they don’t know what they’d write about. But hardly anyone does. So, write. A journal. A business manifesto. An investment plan. You don’t have to publish it. It’s the process that matters. You’ll uncover so much you never knew. […]

    • What We're Reading
      on 4th August 2017 at 1:15 pm

      Here are a few good articles the Collaborative Fund team came across this week. Buying time This is important: As Nick Murray once said, “No matter how much money you have, if you’re still worried, you aren’t wealthy.” Yet people aren’t really any busier today than people were in the past. We now spend an average of 4 hours more per week engaging in leisure activities than people did in the 1960s while work hours have remained relatively constant. We constantly stress about work but it’s basically an illusion that we work more today than people did in the past (smart phones don’t help with this illusion). It’s almost like people are trying to look busy for the sake of saying they’re busy. It’s a form of signaling. Technology A frightening take on what smartphones are doing to a generation: Around 2012, I noticed abrupt shifts in teen behaviors and emotional states. The gentle slopes of the line graphs became steep mountains and sheer cliffs, and many of the distinctive characteristics of the Millennial generation began to disappear. In all my analyses of generational data—some reaching back to the 1930s—I had never seen anything like it. Evolution A great interview with Sir Ronald Cohen: My view about capitalism is that it has evolved greatly in the course of my career. We’ve seen, of course, the age of entrepreneurship. When I started in the firm in 1969, big companies were the thing. But it was obvious that small was going to be beautiful, because innovation was more easily and more successfully carried out by smaller organizations. I realized that the gap between rich and poor, which I thought would be helped by entrepreneurship, was actually being exacerbated—not that you didn’t create a lot of jobs and you didn’t make economies higher growth through entrepreneurship and innovation—but somehow, the way the capital was being allocated meant that the rewards to capital were much greater than the rewards to labor, and the gap between rich and poor got bigger and bigger. Advice A good profile of Betterment and its CEO Jon Stein: “The sticky relationship is your assets,” he says. “There’s a lot of configuration and setup that goes into that, a lot of ongoing guidance and advice. And then, [there are] all the peripheral things come through that advisor. They’ll refer you out to an estate planner, or a mortgage banker, or whatever you need, but that advisor is the hub. And that’s where I think we’re best positioned to the be financial institution for the next 100 years. Because we’re starting with advice and frankly I think banks are in this problem spot where they’re not really giving advice. And advice is ascendant.” Activism Changing times for founders looking to maintain control: The keepers of the S&P 500 took a stand against public companies with multiple classes of shares, saying they would bar newcomers with such setups from their flagship index. The policy change, announced by S&P Dow Jones Indices, rejects potential eligibility for Snap Inc.as well as Blue Apron Holdings Inc.,both of which went public this year. Turnaround A wonderful story about the brute-force turnaround of Domino’s Pizza: Here is the difference between the former busboy and the professor. I have never heard the pizza guy use the word ‘thus.’ He was too busy delivering with no time to pontificate. When he was brand new to the CEO job, Doyle said at that time, “We think that going out there and being this honest really breaks through to people in a way that most advertising does not.” Have a good weekend. […]



    CSSA new concepts in quantitative research

    • Risk Management and Dynamic Beta Podast
      by david varadi on 4th August 2017 at 3:52 pm

      I had the honor of speaking with Mebane Faber of Cambria Investment Management recently where I discussed the topic of risk management and also applying a dynamic beta approach on his widely popular podcast “The Mebane Faber Show”. The interview is almost an hour and covers a wide range of topics whether you are a quant geek like myself […]

    • Welcome QuantX!
      by david varadi on 27th January 2017 at 7:23 pm

      I am very proud to announce that readers can finally have access to products based on many of the quantitative ideas used in the blogosphere and published in academic research. Yesterday we launched five new ETFs through the QuantX Brand (linked to Blue Sky Asset Management).  They provide the building blocks to design customized portfolios […]

    • Tracking the Performance of Tactical Strategies
      by david varadi on 8th September 2016 at 9:03 pm

      There is a cool new website that tracks the performance of well-known tactical strategies. AllocateSmartly  has collected an extensive list of strategies from well-known hedge fund managers like Ray Dalio along with several other portfolio managers and financial bloggers. The backtests for these strategies use a very detailed and comprehensive method that is both conservative […]

    • Book Review: Adaptive Asset Allocation
      by david varadi on 29th February 2016 at 5:34 pm

                                    I recently read “Adaptive Asset Allocation” ( link to the book) by Butler, Philbrick and Gordillo of ReSolve Asset Management.  The book is the culmination of research  developed over the years by the ReSolve team towards the next generation approach of dynamic […]

    • Volatility Futures and S&P500 Performance
      by david varadi on 23rd February 2016 at 5:12 pm

        We wrote a more quant-friendly  article on volatility futures and their impact on S&P500 performance recently on our blog for Blue Sky Asset Management. We will be dedicating a section of the blog specifically for more technical articles. This is the first of many that we have planned in the coming months so stay tuned for […]


    Derek Hernquist Just another WordPress site

    • Why Active OR Passive?
      by Derek on 6th September 2014 at 3:23 pm

      “Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others” Winston Churchill Not sure if it’s me, or the bull market, but the passive>active […] The post Why Active OR Passive? appeared first on Derek Hernquist. […]

    • A New “Trend” For Me
      by Derek on 20th July 2014 at 3:22 pm

      “I believe that understanding what is good is obtained by looking at the way the world works and operating in harmony with it to help […] The post A New “Trend” For Me appeared first on Derek Hernquist. […]

    • Play Ball!
      by Derek on 10th May 2014 at 1:31 pm

      “Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains.”  Crash Davis Fridays are my son’s baseball practices. We need the field time, with last weekend’s […] The post Play Ball! appeared first on Derek Hernquist. […]

    • The Only Truth in Markets is Surprise
      by Derek on 26th April 2014 at 12:58 pm

      “Blessed is he who expects nothing, for he shall never be disappointed.” Alexander Pope That phrase has stuck since I was a kid, written under […] The post The Only Truth in Markets is Surprise appeared first on Derek Hernquist. […]

    • I Have No Idea What Tesla is Worth, Do You?
      by Derek on 5th March 2014 at 4:24 pm

      “Where can I get into this trend at a low risk spot?” Brian Shannon This is a little late, but having made some notes from […] The post I Have No Idea What Tesla is Worth, Do You? appeared first on Derek Hernquist. […]


    Dragonfly Capital What the Charts are Saying about the Market


    The Evidence-Based Investor Buffett and Bogle are right — the best way to invest is to buy and hold a low-cost and highly diversified portfolio of assets for a very long time.

    • Oh for more gadflies
      by Robin Powell on 17th August 2017 at 5:57 pm

      If we really are going to change investing for the better, the media has a huge part to play. I’ve written before about the FT and the excellent work it’s done to explain how asset management really works. But it’s time to applaud another media outlet that’s not afraid to speak its mind; that doesn’t […] The post Oh for more gadflies appeared first on The Evidence-Based Investor. […]

    • Meir Statman: Why I index (and you should too)
      by Robin Powell on 15th August 2017 at 12:59 pm

      I recently had the pleasure of interviewing one of the world’s leading authorities on behavioural finance. Here are some of the highlights:   On the rationale for using index funds “It is right not just for me personally; it is right for most people. One thing that people don’t understand is that the stock market […] The post Meir Statman: Why I index (and you should too) appeared first on The Evidence-Based Investor. […]

    • Evidence-based investing, the poster
      by Robin Powell on 10th August 2017 at 11:20 am

      I’m a strong believer in the power of visual communication. It has far more impact than the written word alone — especially when dealing with subject matter that is complex, technical and potentially dull and boring. Let’s face it, the finer points of academic finance can be all of those things! That’s why I love […] The post Evidence-based investing, the poster appeared first on The Evidence-Based Investor. […]

    • Transparency Task Force comes to Boston
      by Robin Powell on 7th August 2017 at 4:05 pm

      It’s been a huge privilege to serve, for the past year or so, as an ambassador for the Transparency Task Force. We’re a group of volunteers working to drive up levels of transparency, truthfulness and trustworthiness in financial services. So far our focus has been on the UK, but lack of transparency is a global […] The post Transparency Task Force comes to Boston appeared first on The Evidence-Based Investor. […]

    • Evidence-based TAMP targets £10 billion AUM within 10 years
      by Robin Powell on 3rd August 2017 at 4:26 pm

      Craig Burgess runs EBI Portfolios, a firm based in the English Midlands that provides low-cost investment solutions to 85 advice firms in the UK and the rest of the world. He also has his own advice firm, Blackstone Wealth Management. In this interview he explains how, after many years of steady progress, evidence-based investing is […] The post Evidence-based TAMP targets £10 billion AUM within 10 years appeared first on The Evidence-Based Investor. […]


    • The Summer Heats Up
      by sidoxia on 1st August 2017 at 7:16 pm

      This article is an excerpt from a previously released Sidoxia Capital Management complimentary newsletter (August 1, 2017). Subscribe on the right side of the page for the complete text. The temperature in the stock market heated up again this month. Like a hot day at the beach, the Dow Jones Industrial Average stock index burned […]

    • Stirring the Sentiment Tea Leaves Redux
      by sidoxia on 24th July 2017 at 7:10 pm

      Despite the Volatility Index (VIX) currently operating at the low end of historical ranges (9.36), the equity markets operate on a perpetual volatility rollercoaster. This period of relative calm has not stopped participants from searching for the Holy Grail of indicators in hopes of determining whether the next large move in the markets is upwards or […]

    • A Recipe for Disaster
      by sidoxia on 15th July 2017 at 6:54 am

      Justice does not always get served in the stock market because financial markets are not always efficient in the short-run (see Black-Eyes to Classic Economists). However, over the long-run, financial markets usually get it right. And when the laws of economics and physics are functioning properly, I must admit it, I do find it especially […]

    • Keeping the Economy Afloat
      by sidoxia on 9th July 2017 at 7:19 am

      There have been plenty of concerns about rising interest rates, flattening yield curves, and potential recessions, but we all know that consumer spending accounts for roughly two-thirds of our country’s economy. Well, I certainly met my personal economic duty this summer by putting my consumer spending responsibilities to work. Not only did my family vacation […]

    • Hot Dogs, Political Fireworks, and Our Nation’s Birthday
      by sidoxia on 3rd July 2017 at 7:24 pm

      This article is an excerpt from a previously released Sidoxia Capital Management complimentary newsletter (July 3, 2017). Subscribe on the right side of the page for the complete text. The 4th of July has arrived once again as we celebrate our country’s 241st birthday of independence. Besides being a time to binge on hot dogs, […]


    The Investor's Field Guide A Journey Through the Stock Market Jungle


    • Better To Be Lucky Than Good, Right?
      by Ivanhoff on 20th August 2017 at 1:44 am

      Extremely successful people like to play humble and say they have been very lucky in so many aspects of life. But how much of the so-called luck is actually self-made and how much is a random occurrence, a destiny, if you will? Yes, there are people who hit the lottery. There are people who are … Continue reading "Better To Be Lucky Than Good, Right?" […]

    • The Future of Tesla
      by Ivanhoff on 16th August 2017 at 5:40 pm

        Toyota averages about $2,700 earnings per car by making 10.2 million vehicles per year. Ford earns about $1000 per car by producing about 6.4 million vehicles per year. Porsche earns about 17,000 by making about 225k cars per year Tesla made 84k vehicles in 2016. The price tag of most of them is 80-120k. … Continue reading "The Future of Tesla" […]

    • The Best-Performing Hedge Fund
      by Ivanhoff on 10th August 2017 at 6:18 pm

      If there has ever been a money-making machine on Wall Street, it is the Medallion fund. Between 1989 and 2000, it returned 36% after fees. Between 2000 and 2013, it returned 21% after fees, including a 98% return in 2008 when the S&P 500 lost 38%. The fund has managed to extract more than 60 billion … Continue reading "The Best-Performing Hedge Fund" […]

    • 10 Insights from the Book ‘Angel’
      by Ivanhoff on 20th July 2017 at 10:07 pm

      This book is brutally honest and a must read for wanna-be angel investors and founders. Jason might sound a little condescending at times, but he is sharing valuable insights earned the hard way.   Here are ten of my favourite insights from the book: What angel investing and the lottery have in common. I buy … Continue reading "10 Insights from the Book ‘Angel’" […]

    • The Secrets Behind Profitable Trading
      by Ivanhoff on 13th July 2017 at 11:07 pm

      There are two main concepts one needs to understand and maybe learn the hard way, before becoming consistently profitable: Different setups work in different markets. The same setup that can deliver outsized profits on one trading environment might lose you money in a different market. For example, buying strong stocks in hot industries in anticipation of … Continue reading "The Secrets Behind Profitable Trading" […]


    Blog | Jason Zweig A safe haven for investors by Jason Zweig of The Wall Street Journal.


    Joe Fahmy The Next Big Move

    • WEEKEND VIDEO: 8/20/17
      by jfahmy on 21st August 2017 at 12:20 am

      The purpose of this video is to share some of my experiences from 20 years of trading, provide education and market commentary. If you have any questions, you can email me directly at jfahmy@zorcapital.com. Thank you for watching and good luck trading! Charts are provided by MarketSmith. To learn more or for a trial, click [...] The post WEEKEND VIDEO: 8/20/17 appeared first on Joe Fahmy. […]

    • Paul Tudor Jones on Jesse Livermore
      by jfahmy on 15th August 2017 at 4:21 pm

      One of the greatest trading books ever written is Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. The original book was published in 1923, but in 2010, an Annotated Edition was produced by Jon Markman. This edition reveals the truth about Jesse Livermore and provides colorful, historically accurate commentary on the characters, places, and events that have made [...] The post Paul Tudor Jones on Jesse Livermore appeared first on Joe Fahmy. […]

    • A Few Warning Signs
      by jfahmy on 10th August 2017 at 10:11 pm

      Legendary fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller once said: “Probably one of my greatest assets is that I’m open-minded and I can change my mind very quickly.” Although I’ve been very bullish on the markets the past few months, a few warning signs have shown up that have turned me cautious over the near-term: 1) The Nasdaq [...] The post A Few Warning Signs appeared first on Joe Fahmy. […]

    • Go Ask 10 People
      by jfahmy on 6th August 2017 at 11:15 pm

      There is an area of the stock market that very few people talk about: Psychology. While fundamentals and technicals are important, one could argue that psychology is even more important because the market tends to fool the majority. In other words, it is important to know what the majority of people are thinking and to [...] The post Go Ask 10 People appeared first on Joe Fahmy. […]

    • 2017 Second Half Outlook
      by jfahmy on 25th July 2017 at 12:20 am

      We will continue to see more upside into year-end for the following reasons: 1) Strength leads to more strength. Traditionally, when the early parts of the year are strong, the strength continues into year-end. For example, since 1945, January and February have both been positive 27 times (as it was this year). The market finished [...] The post 2017 Second Half Outlook appeared first on Joe Fahmy. […]


    QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH AND TRADING The latest theories, models and investment strategies in quantitative research and trading

    • Modeling Volatility and Correlation
      by Jonathan on 21st August 2017 at 4:45 pm

      In a previous blog post I mentioned the VVIX/VIX Ratio, which is measured as the ratio of the CBOE VVIX Index to the VIX Index. The former measures the volatility of the VIX, or the volatility of volatility. Market Stress Test Signals Danger Ahead A follow-up article in ZeroHedge shortly afterwards pointed out that the... The post Modeling Volatility and Correlation appeared first on QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH AND TRADING. […]

    • Tactical Mutual Fund Strategies
      by Jonathan on 14th August 2017 at 9:43 am

      A recent blog post of mine was posted on Seeking Alpha (see summary below if you missed it). The essence of the idea is simply that one can design long-only, tactical market timing strategies that perform robustly during market downturns, or which may even be positively correlated with volatility.  I used the example of a LOMT (“Long-Only Market-Timing”)... The post Tactical Mutual Fund Strategies appeared first on QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH AND TRADING. […]

    • Capitalizing on the Coming Market Crash
      by Jonathan on 7th August 2017 at 3:06 pm

      Long-Only Equity Investors Recently I have been discussing possible areas of collaboration with an RIA contact on LinkedIn, who also happens to be very familiar with the hedge fund world.  He outlined the case of a high net worth investor in equities (long only), who wanted to remain invested, but was becoming increasingly concerned about the... The post Capitalizing on the Coming Market Crash appeared first on QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH AND TRADING. […]

    • Protected: Systematic Strategies Fund July 2017
      by Jonathan on 2nd August 2017 at 12:23 pm

      There is no excerpt because this is a protected post. The post Protected: Systematic Strategies Fund July 2017 appeared first on QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH AND TRADING. […]

    • Market Stress Test Signals Danger Ahead
      by Jonathan on 17th July 2017 at 8:48 am

      One metric of market stress is the VX Ratio, defined as the ratio of the CBOE VVIX Index to the VIX Index. The former measures the volatility of the VIX, or the volatility of volatility.  When markets are very quiet and the VIX Index is low the ratio moves to higher levels. During periods of... The post Market Stress Test Signals Danger Ahead appeared first on QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH AND TRADING. […]


    Marginal REVOLUTION Small Steps Toward A Much Better World

    • Eleanor Rigby auction markets in everything
      by Tyler Cowen on 22nd August 2017 at 12:17 pm

      Certificate of purchase and receipt for grave space to be sold with miniature bible belonging to woman whose name was immortalised by McCartney They are expected to sell for between £2,000 and £4,000. They will go under the hammer alongside the original handwritten score for the song, which is expected to fetch £20,000. The jar […] The post Eleanor Rigby auction markets in everything appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. […]

    • 16 ways QR codes are used in China
      by Tyler Cowen on 22nd August 2017 at 5:45 am

      Yes the Chinese are ahead of us in many ways, here is one bit from an excellent article by Connie Chan: #11 QR code as call box and information kiosk Remember those emergency call boxes on the side of freeways? In Nanjing, China, smart street signs with QR codes provide the names and contact info […] The post 16 ways QR codes are used in China appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. […]

    • Greater gender parity in economics suggests we should reform tenure systems
      by Tyler Cowen on 22nd August 2017 at 4:53 am

      That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column, the set-up is that the tenure clock and child-bearing plans do not exactly mesh well.  Here is my primary recommendation: Imagine a greater variety of academic jobs, in areas that are not always valued highly by peer review. They might include jobs devoted to producing policy […] The post Greater gender parity in economics suggests we should reform tenure systems appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. […]

    • *The Dawn of Eurasia*
      by Tyler Cowen on 21st August 2017 at 9:34 pm

      By Bruno Maçães, due out in January.  I was asked to blurb it, I’m going to go “off the reservation” and call it so far the best and most important book I’ve read so far this year.  From Amazon: In this original and timely book, Bruno Maçães argues that the best word for the emerging […] The post *The Dawn of Eurasia* appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. […]

    • Russia fact of the day
      by Tyler Cowen on 21st August 2017 at 7:13 pm

      …the wealth held offshore by rich Russians is about three times larger than official net foreign reserves, and is comparable in magnitude to total household financial assets held in Russia. That is from Novokmet, Piketty, and Zucman. The post Russia fact of the day appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. […]


    Behavioral Macro Mark Dow’s microblog, analyzing global macroeconomic and market issues, often through the prism of our cognitive shortcomings

    • Sorry for Being the Bearer of Good News
      on 8th August 2017 at 3:27 pm

      I have a childhood friend who loves to rant and complain so much that I jokingly preface giving him good news with an apology. The market feels very much like this right now. The overwhelming sentiment is “cautious”, “we are due”, “valuations are unsustainably high”.But the truth is our collective memory of the GFC has made sentiment a countercyclical stabilizer, stretching out both the financial risk cycle and the economic cycle. Every time we get a little confident or frothy, the scolds come out and remind us of our ‘irresponsibility’ and we all slow our roll for a little while and digest gains. When you think the rest of the world is now going thru the same, drawn out, semi-deleveraging lower-for-longer recovery we experienced–which keeps a damper on our speed limit as well–begrudging good news could go on for a long, long tim […]

    • Credit Spreads and Sticker Shock
      on 31st July 2017 at 3:48 pm

      Credit managers have been suffering for years now. Yeah, I know that sounds strange given the run credit markets have had. But the truth is they’ve been suffering from sticker shock since 2011. “But what can I buy at these levels?” has been their constant refrain. Many have been underperforming their benchmarks and bogeys for years.How did they fall into this trap? Start with the chart of the BBB spread over the last 15 years. Credit managers have anchored on spread levels and yields from the strong phase of the last risk cycle, 2004-2007. Spreads then were 110-130bps. Today they are 138bps. Five-year BBB yields then were 5-6%, whereas today they are 3-3.5%. Credit managers have been forced into chasing yields lower and lower for the last 5 years.What they’ve been overlooking is the risk free rate. The 5 year risk free rate averaged around 4% from 2004-2007, and now we are at 1.8%. If you look at how much risk-free yield (opportunity cost) you are giving up to collect extra spread, it becomes obvious that a spread of 138bps is far, far cheaper when the risk free rate is at 1.8% than when it is 4%. Spread-to-spread comparisons just don’t make sense. Yet that’s what we keep hearing. It’s kind of shocking, really, how many professional managers–especially those with a lot of experience, paradoxically–have been blinded to this simple but powerful consideration.The TL;DR: Credit markets aren’t as rich as you might have thought, and in any event, the credit cycle is likely to end around the time the economic cycle in the US turns, irrespective of valuations. […]

    • Mexican Peso, Brazilian Real, and the EM risk Cycle
      on 31st July 2017 at 12:24 pm

      The forward points on BRL and MXN show, approximately, a 6% breakeven depreciation over the next 12 months. Or, in other word, 6% carry. If you believe emerging markets are in the early phases of the same kind of slow, muddle-through recovery we have seen in the US and increasingly Europe, it is hard to imagine spot underperforming the forwards as a longer-term investment proposition. This is the phase of the global risk cycle where the desire for returns is very high but the forward-looking scope for returns in the US market appears limited.It also looks to me as though there is still tons of scope for further “normalization” from the unwind of the EM bear market. NB: This blog is currently unlocked. It will convert to locked, accessible to @BehavioralMacro subscribers through PremoSocial, in the near future. […]

    • Quick Thought on Oil Stocks
      on 31st July 2017 at 12:15 pm

      Up until recently oil stocks have been about playing/gaming some type of normalization from the 2014-15 crash. Mostly, repeated attempts at knife catching. Over this past month or two it seems investors are finally looking a little beyond this and starting to price in the secular challenges facing global oil supply & demand. 1.       Electric car dominance is no longer a question of “if”.2.       The fuel intensity of global growth continues to decline, as emerging economies catch up with the well-established trends in the advanced ones.3.       Extraction technologies have become vastly more productive and less expansive. From an investment standpoint, this is a headwind—whether the price of oil is rising or not. If the price of oil were to rise, no doubt oil stocks would also, just probably with a lower beta to it. It makes the sector a much less attractive risk-reward proposition, despite how beaten up it has been. NB: This blog is currently unlocked. It will convert to locked, accessible to @BehavioralMacro subscribers through PremoSocial, in the near future.&nbs […]

    • Going All Macro, All the Time
      on 24th July 2017 at 8:00 pm

      I’m trying something new. I’ve been looking for months for a better way to share my core competency: global macro investing and trading. My public twitter account and blog no longer reward my effort the way they did when I started tweeting, disincentivizing thoughtful output. And I’ve got tons to say about patterns, narratives, correlations, investor reaction functions, position sizing tricks, portfolio construction, managing mental capital, fundamentals, etc. I live for this game.So, I was pretty happy when I stumbled onto Premo, the brainchild of the folks at the Bespoke Investment Group. Through Premo’s new platform, I have set up a private, subscription-based Twitter account, @BehavioralMacro, and expect to add to it a locked blog in the near future. It will be all global macro, all the time. And for those of you who’ve followed me on my public Twitter feed, @mark_dow, you know what I mean when I say all the time. There will be no dog pics, no cat pics, no politics, and no puns, either. The focus will be exclusively on reading market trends, patterns and sharing my macro trading/investing processes.Becoming a follower is easy. Once you subscribe at my @BehavorialMacro profile page on Premo, it’s done. You’re immediately added as a new follower. You can cancel the subscription at any time on Premo as well. Couldn’t be easier. I’ve already been posting to the new feed for over a week, so you should be able to get a sense of what I want to accomplish right away. Most of it will be about process. Some of it will be actionable, but the focus will not be on specific trade recommendations or a blow-by-blow of what I am doing with my portfolios. It will be about sharing my tricks, techniques and frameworks for reading markets and managing global macro risk.DMs will be open, and I’m going to use the feed to engage as much as possible.The subscription will be set at $30 a month—at least at the outset. Targeting institutional investors would allow me to charge considerably more, but it would then not be accessible to motivated individuals who want to piggyback on my experience to get up the learning curve faster. If I were to price it too low, I would be basically giving it away to a market segment that could and should pay more. From preliminary discussions, I suspect the price is more likely to be adjusted up rather than down, and, at some point, I may want to cap the number of followers, but it’s really too early to say for sure. I want to be responsive to how things unfold. I hope you bear with me through the trial and error. I’m excited about this new experiment. It should allow me to better share my skill set. The platform looks cool. I hope you’ll give it a try. To join, you can subscribe below: https://premosocial.com/BehavioralMacro […]


    market folly Tracking top hedge funds since 2008

    • Brand New Hedge Fund Wisdom Issue Now Available
      by marketfolly@gmail.com (Market Folly) on 21st August 2017 at 4:45 pm

      Want to find out what stocks top hedge funds have been buying, selling, and shorting?  Our 86-page quarterly newsletter summarizes the latest 13F filings of 25 top funds.  The brand new Q2 issue is now available.  Subscribers please login at www.hedgefundwisdom.com to download.Inside The New Issue- Investment Thesis Summaries on O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) and Energy Transfer Partners (ETP).  Quickly get up to speed on the bull thesis and bear thesis.- New Consensus Buy / Sell Lists: See the most popular stocks among top hedge funds- Reveals Latest Portfolios of 25 Top Managers: Appaloosa, Lone Pine, Baupost Group, Viking, SPO Advisory and 20 other top funds (full list here). Includes European short sale positions where applicable.Subscribe Below For Immediate AccessYou'll get immediate access to the brand new issue as well as the full archive of past issues.1-year Subscription (4 Issues): $299.99 per year (save $60 with this option)Quarterly Subscription: $89.99 per quarterly issueWant to pay by check or soft dollar?  Please email us:  info (at) hedgefundwisdom (dot) com […]

    • ValueAct Capital Boosts Seagate Position
      by marketfolly@gmail.com (Market Folly) on 11th August 2017 at 5:53 pm

      Jeff Ubben's activist investment firm ValueAct Capital has filed a 13D with the SEC regarding its stake in Seagate Technology (STX).  Per the filing, ValueAct now owns 7.2% of the company with 21 million shares.The filing notes they've had talks with officers and directors of the company and will continue to do so.  ValueAct was buying on July 29th, 31st as well as August 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 7th, 8th, and 9th.  In total, they purchased 7,184,235 shares in a range between $32.19 and $33.50.  We've highlighted how recently ValueAct has been trimming numerous positions, and it looks like this is where some of the proceeds ended up. Per Google Finance, Seagate is "a provider of electronic data storage technology and solutions. The Company's principal products are hard disk drives (HDDs). In addition to HDDs, it produces a range of electronic data storage products, including solid state hybrid drives, solid state drives, peripheral component interconnect express (PCIe) cards and serial advanced technology architecture (SATA) controllers. Its storage technology portfolio also includes storage subsystems and high performance computing solutions. Its products are designed for applications in enterprise servers and storage systems, client compute applications and client non-compute applications. It designs, fabricates and assembles various components found in its disk drives, including read/write heads and recording media. Its design and manufacturing operations are based on technology platforms that are used to produce various disk drive products that serve multiple data storage applications and markets." […]

    • Hedge Fund Links ~ 8/11/17
      by marketfolly@gmail.com (Market Folly) on 11th August 2017 at 5:23 pm

      Risks are rising while low risks are discounted [Ray Dalio]Activist hedge funds target bigger and bigger US companies [CNBC]Sustainability of hedge fund reinsurers questioned [Business Insurance]Mega hedge funds are reporting big gains [Bloomberg]A look at Michael Hintze of CQS [AFR]Lessons from a trading great: Stanley Druckenmiller [Macro Ops […]

    • Fairholme Capital Reduces Sears Canada Position
      by marketfolly@gmail.com (Market Folly) on 10th August 2017 at 4:17 pm

      Bruce Berkowitz's investment firm Fairholme Capital has filed an amended 13D regarding shares of Sears Canada (SRSC).  Per the filing, Berkowitz now owns 18.7% of SRSC with just over 19 million shares.This is a decrease of over 2.39 million shares since the end of July when Fairholme reported owning over 21.43 million SRSC shares.  The latest portfolio activity comes in late July and early August as Fairholme sold shares as high as $0.61 and as low as $0.25.  After this round of sales, Fairholme still owns 19 million SRSC shares.We've covered other recent portfolio activity from Fairholme Capital here. […]

    • Paulson & Co Trims Valeant Pharmaceuticals Stake
      by marketfolly@gmail.com (Market Folly) on 10th August 2017 at 3:52 pm

      John Paulson's hedge fund firm Paulson & Co has filed a 13D with the SEC regarding its stake in Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX).  Per the filing, Paulson & Co now owns 6% of VRX with 20.83 million shares (but note this excludes cash-settled swaps representing economic exposure comparable to 259,500 additional shares of common stock).This means they reduced their position size by just under one million shares since June when they previously disclosed a prior sale as well.  The latest filing was made due to portfolio activity on August 9th and they sold at $14.6595.We've highlighted other recent portfolio activity from Paulson & Co here.Per Google Finance, Valeant Pharmaceuticals is "a pharmaceutical and medical device company. The Company is engaged in developing and marketing a range of branded, generic and branded generic pharmaceuticals, over-the-counter (OTC) products, and medical devices (contact lenses, intraocular lenses, ophthalmic surgical equipment, and aesthetics devices). It operates through two segments: Developed markets and Emerging markets. In the Developed Markets segment, it focuses on the areas of dermatology, neurology, gastrointestinal disorders, and eye health therapeutic classes. In the Emerging Markets segment, it focuses on primarily on branded generics, OTC products and medical devices. Its pharmaceutical products include Xifaxan, Solodyn and Glumetza. Its OTC products include PreserVision, Biotrue and Boston. Its other generic products include Latanoprost and Metronidazole. Its ophthalmic surgical products include intraocular lenses, such as Akreos, enVista, Crystalens and Trulign." […]


    Meb Faber Research – Stock Market and Investing Blog Stock Market and Investing Blog of Meb Faber

    • Tweets of the Week
      by Meb Faber on 22nd August 2017 at 3:21 pm

      [View the story “Tweets of the Week” on Storify] The post Tweets of the Week appeared first on Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog. […]

    • Episode #67: “I See a Lot of Red Flags”
      by Meb Faber on 16th August 2017 at 6:02 pm

      Episode #67: “I See a Lot of Red Flags”     Guest: Simon Black. Simon is an international investor, entrepreneur, founder of Sovereign Man and the editor of its flagship international diversification service, Sovereign Man: Confidential. He has started his own private investment bank, founded one of the largest agricultural production companies in South America, and … Continued The post Episode #67: “I See a Lot of Red Flags” appeared first on Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog. […]

    • Tweets of the Week
      by Meb Faber on 13th August 2017 at 10:26 pm

      [View the story “Tweets of the Week” on Storify] The post Tweets of the Week appeared first on Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog. […]

    • Episode #66: Radio Show: U.S. Equities: At What Valuation To Sell?
      by Meb Faber on 10th August 2017 at 4:04 pm

      Episode #66: Radio Show: U.S. Equities: At What Valuation To Sell? Guest: Episode #66 has no guest, but is co-hosted by Jeff Remsburg. Date Recorded: 8/7/17 Run-Time: 57:03 To listen to Episode #66 on iTunes, click here To listen to Episode #66 on Stitcher, click here To listen to Episode #66 on Pocket Casts, click … Continued The post Episode #66: Radio Show: U.S. Equities: At What Valuation To Sell? appeared first on Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog. […]

    • Episode #65: Emil van Essen, “The Days of $80 Oil – That’s a Long Way Away”
      by Meb Faber on 9th August 2017 at 10:58 pm

      Episode #65: “The Days of $80 Oil – That’s a Long Way Away”   Guest: Emil van Essen. Emil is the CEO and CIO of Emil van Essen Managed Futures. He’s a commodity trading advisor with more than 25 years of investment experience. He has also won awards for achievement in mathematics, and has written … Continued The post Episode #65: Emil van Essen, “The Days of $80 Oil – That’s a Long Way Away” appeared first on Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog. […]


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    Monevator Make more money, invest profitably, retire early


    Blog – PensionPartners.com The ATAC Rotation Manager

    • “Markets Don’t Crash From All-Time Highs” – August 2017 Markets Webinar Replay & Slides
      by Charlie Bilello on 17th August 2017 at 4:12 pm

      Click link below for slides: Pension Partners – Markets Webinar – August 2017   This webinar is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation regarding any securities transaction, or as an offer to provide advisory or other services by Pension Partners, LLC in […]

    • Will the Fed Get to 3% before the Cycle Turns?
      by Charlie Bilello on 14th August 2017 at 8:02 pm

      The Federal Reserve is currently forecasting a “longer-term” Fed Funds Rate of 3.0%. Will they get there before the end of the current expansion? Let’s take look… Back in December 2008, the Fed cut rates down to a range of 0% to 0.25%, the lowest level in history. For 7 years they held rates at […]

    • The Constants
      by Charlie Bilello on 9th August 2017 at 7:38 pm

      Investing is not mathematics. Investing is not physics. There are no fundamental laws that govern the markets and dictate their every move. There are no constants, universal in nature, to help you solve for the perfect portfolio. 3.14159… Archimedes’ constant, also known as Pi (π), is the ratio between the circumference and the diameter of […]

    • Markets Don’t Crash from All-Time Highs
      by Charlie Bilello on 5th August 2017 at 1:47 pm

       “Markets don’t crash from all-time highs.” This old saying is making the rounds again. Why? The Dow just closed at an all-time high for the 8th consecutive trading day and 34th time in 2017. That’s a lot of all-time highs, and it comes after the 122 all-time highs in 2013-2016. We haven’t seen this many […]

    • The Best of Times
      by Charlie Bilello on 1st August 2017 at 8:01 pm

      It is the best of times. The age of wisdom. The epoch of belief. The season of Light. The spring of hope. We have everything before us. Source: Drudgereport.com The financial markets have become a tale of one city, a utopia in which the streets are paved with risk-free reward. Try to remember the air […]


    Price Action Lab Blog Premium Market Analysis

    • What Is Idiosyncratic Alpha?
      by Michael Harris on 22nd August 2017 at 3:02 pm

      A reference to idiosyncratic trading strategies was made in a market commentary by Neal Berger, the President of Eagle’s View Asset Management. In this article we attempt to clarify what these idiosyncratic strategies are. Below is an excerpt from Neal Berger’s … Continue reading →What Is Idiosyncratic Alpha? was originally published on Price Action Lab Blog […]

    • DLPAL Software: What You Can Do With It
      by Price Action Lab on 21st August 2017 at 4:56 pm

      There are three versions of DLPAL software: DLPAL S, DLPAL PRO and DLPAL LS. Below is a brief account of what you can do with the three different versions of DLPAL Deep Learning Price Action Lab™ (DLPAL) is based on … Continue reading →DLPAL Software: What You Can Do With It was originally published on Price Action Lab Blog […]

    • Weekly Market Analysis – August 21, 2017 [Premium Articles]
      by Price Action Lab on 20th August 2017 at 4:06 pm

      Weekly premium reports include a market recap with commentary, performance of selected large cap stocks and ETFs, technical analysis with unique indicators and directional probabilities based on machine learning. For access to premium content, you must be a subscriber. Please … Continue reading →Weekly Market Analysis – August 21, 2017 [Premium Articles] was originally published on Price Action Lab Blog […]

    • Two Facts About Hedge Funds Everyone Should Know
      by Michael Harris on 20th August 2017 at 11:08 am

      Managing a hedge fund, or even a managed accounts operation, nowadays is far from trivial given the market timing challenges and regulatory requirements. But there are also some other facts that are not so widely understood. I would like to … Continue reading →Two Facts About Hedge Funds Everyone Should Know was originally published on Price Action Lab Blog […]

    • DJIA Long/Short Market Neutral Results For August 18, 2017
      by Price Action Lab on 19th August 2017 at 2:30 pm

      The long/short market neutral strategy gained 0.42% from the open to the close of Friday, August 18, 2017. This long/short market neutral strategy is based on features engineered by DLPAL software. The score for ranking the Dow stocks is Pdelta*Significance … Continue reading →DJIA Long/Short Market Neutral Results For August 18, 2017 was originally published on Price Action Lab Blog […]


    Quantifiable Edges » Blog Assessing Market Action With Indicators & History

    • Why Today’s Fed Day Setup May Not Be As Bullish As Most
      by Rob Hanna on 26th July 2017 at 12:01 pm

      Wednesday is a Fed Day. Fed Days have historically shown an upside tendency. I have documented this tendency in great detail over the years, with the most complete documentation coming in The Quantifiable Edges Guide to Fed Days. Based on what the market did Tuesday, this does not seem to be the most favorable Fed […]

    • Worldwide Generosity from Quantifiable Edges Readers
      by Rob Hanna on 23rd June 2017 at 4:12 pm

      As many readers of this blog are aware, on Saturday I will be doing a 175 mile bike ride from Boston, MA around Cape Cod to its tip in Provincetown for the Multiple Sclerosis Society. I have offered anyone that donates any amount of money a copy of the QE Fed Day MS Ride package, […]

    • Historical Performance of Fed Days Broken Down by Sector
      by Rob Hanna on 13th June 2017 at 12:53 pm

      Last night I ran a study that I have never published before with regards to Fed Days. It looked at the performance of each Sector ETF on Fed Days to see which ones performed the best and which ones disappointed. The study can be found below.   First, I did find it interesting that every […]

    • This Study Suggests Intermediate-Term Momentum Is Strong Enough To Persist A While Longer
      by Rob Hanna on 2nd June 2017 at 12:52 pm

      One study from the Quantifinder that triggered last has some potential intermediate-term implications, and it is fairly interesting, so I figured I would share it. This study looked at the SPX closing price in relation to its 50-day Bollinger Bands, and the fact that we are now extended upwards. I used 2 standard deviations in […]

    • Bullish History of Thursday After Memorial Day (updated)
      by Rob Hanna on 1st June 2017 at 11:05 am

      Thursday after Memorial Day has been a day that has exhibited a bullish bias for many years. I last showed this on the blog about 3 years ago. The chart below shows updated results.   Single-day seasonality can certainly be overrun by other forces, but the Thursday after Memorial Day has been a good one […]


    • Lost Lessons
      by Roger Nusbaum on 21st August 2017 at 4:06 pm

      A few weeks ago I started recording a very brief pod cast type of commentary for Alpha Baskets that I’ve not been real good about posting here. Please click here. Playing around with an app that makes pictures look like paintings Sunset in Seatt […]

    • Don’t Look Directly At The VIX
      by Roger Nusbaum on 21st August 2017 at 2:29 pm

      The weekly Market Update is posted and includes the following; There are divergent forces at play with how consumers engage the economy to, well, consume. On the one hand the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey came in on Friday at its highest reading since January of this year. On the other hand there has […]

    • 8 Brutally Honest Truths You Need To Hear If You Want To Get Your Portfolio Together
      by Roger Nusbaum on 16th August 2017 at 2:25 pm

      My latest post for Alpha Baskets is posted and includes the following; Blaming only makes you weaker Blaming others for investing mistakes is a huge and a common behavioral flaw. You’ve read it here at least a hundred times; the market goes up most of the time, occasionally it goes down a lot and scares […]

    • Dalio Likes Gold
      by Roger Nusbaum on 14th August 2017 at 2:30 pm

      The weekly Market Update is posted at Alpha Baskets and includes the following; Gold rallied a little better than 2% last week and is up a sneaky 11% year to date. Part of the lift last week may have been attributable to the sabre rattling with North Korea but perhaps also from Ray Dalio at […]

    • Big Gains (Five Basis Points At A Time)
      by Roger Nusbaum on 10th August 2017 at 7:02 pm

      My latest post for Alpha Baskets is posted and includes the following; Doing nothing (or very little) is sometimes the best thing an investor can do. Not always of course, but at times, nothing is the best thing. Whether now is one of those times is reasonably debated, I think now is a time for […]


    the research puzzle a blog by tom brakke

    • maps of the world
      by tom brakke on 16th August 2017 at 8:39 pm

      Investment organizations are facing a quickening pace of change, but using old constructs to analyze the environment and to make strategic decisions. New perspectives are needed. […]

    • into the workshop
      by tom brakke on 6th July 2017 at 5:09 pm

      Getting away from the normal routine is critical if you are to think about the challenges of the future. Four days with interesting investment people from around the world does the trick. […]

    • precision farming
      by tom brakke on 1st June 2017 at 6:03 pm

      There has been a restoration of faith in risk management and the modeling of market behavior since the financial crisis. Will those methods serve us well when the weather changes? […]

    • surprisingly popular
      by tom brakke on 2nd May 2017 at 9:21 pm

      For the first four years of this century, I taught at the University of Minnesota’s Carlson School of Management.  The classes were made up of MBA students who managed real-money equity and fixed income funds that had been established by the school (now totaling around $35 millionCarlson School of Management | The students working on [... […]

    • site visits
      by tom brakke on 25th April 2017 at 8:31 pm

      The worth of due diligence visits to companies or asset managers depends greatly on the structure of the interactions and your willingness to surface the flaws in the stories you hear. […]


    RiskReversal RiskReversal with Dan Nathan

    • XHB – Leaky Foundation
      by Dan on 22nd August 2017 at 3:22 pm

      This morning high-end homebuilder Toll Brothers (TOL) reported fQ3 earnings that beat but offered guidance that was slightly below expectations. Shares of TOL are down 4% this morning, approaching near term technical support after just last ... […]

    • Alcoa (AA) – Metal Music
      by Dan on 21st August 2017 at 6:19 pm

      Copper is trading at levels it has not seen since May 2015, up more than 50% from its 2016 lows, which at the time were seven-year lows: Investors keep an eye on industrial commodity prices ... […]

    • AT&T(T): Buy it Write
      by Dan on 18th August 2017 at 7:13 pm

      Back in July, I took a look at AT&T (T) after a sharp selloff in the shares to a new 52 week low, which marked a nearly 17% decline from its 2017 highs made in ... […]

    • Bank Shot (XLF)
      by Dan on 17th August 2017 at 7:28 pm

      Back in early June we took at a look at the relative underperformance of the prior few months of bank stocks to the broad market (read here) and leaned bearish based on the conclusion: the relative ... […]

    • Update – Target (TGT) Practice
      by CC on 17th August 2017 at 5:08 pm

      Target reported earnings on Tuesday that beat on most estimates including same store sales. The stock is higher this week as a lot of other retail stocks are taking it on the chin. Before earnings ... […]


    The Big Picture Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media

    • MiB: Ellen Zentner on being “the calm voice in the room.”
      by Barry Ritholtz on 22nd August 2017 at 4:00 pm

      Ellen Zentner, the chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley, discusses how the US presidential election has impacted the firm’s global clients. “You must remain the calm voice in the room, coming back to the fundamentals, fundamentals, fundamentals. Let’s keep emotions and feelings out of it.”  She says that has been extraordinarily difficult post election, with emotions running so… Read More The post MiB: Ellen Zentner on being “the calm voice in the room.” appeared first on The Big Picture. […]

    • Value of $100 in Metropolitan Areas
      by Barry Ritholtz on 22nd August 2017 at 1:00 pm

      The Tax Foundation has an interesting graphic, showing purchasing power differences at the metropolitan level, i.e., how far $100 dollar goes city by city. Two caveats: Everything you buy at retail is indirectly a function of local real estate prices. This is why buying food in a Manhattan supermarket is not very much cheaper than going out… Read More The post Value of $100 in Metropolitan Areas appeared first on The Big Picture. […]

    • 10 Tuesday AM Reads
      by Barry Ritholtz on 22nd August 2017 at 11:49 am

      My two-fer Tuesday morning train reads: • Did ancient peoples really predict solar eclipses? (NASA) see also Learning From the First Eclipse Media Event (BloombergView) • Are Long-Term Investors the Market’s True Gamblers? New study challenges traditional thought on how value and momentum investors make money (Wall Street Journal) • Paul Tudor Jones Wants to Crowdsource “Good” Companies (Institutional… Read More The post 10 Tuesday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture. […]

    • The Death and Life of Helicopter Commuting
      by Barry Ritholtz on 22nd August 2017 at 10:30 am

      Fifty years ago, a helicopter company called New York Airways whisked passengers from the rooftop of the iconic Pan Am Building in midtown Manhattan to any city airport in just 10 minutes. A fatal accident in 1977 brought that era to an end. 40 years later, new technology could open a new chapter in short-distance… Read More The post The Death and Life of Helicopter Commuting appeared first on The Big Picture. […]

    • Has the Dollar Become More Sensitive to Interest Rates?
      by Guest Author on 22nd August 2017 at 9:00 am

      The post Has the Dollar Become More Sensitive to Interest Rates? appeared first on The Big Picture. […]


    Above the Market Perspectives on capital markets and personal finance

    • Always Invert
      by Bob Seawright on 13th August 2017 at 7:25 am

      Larry Walters always wanted to fly. When he was old enough, he joined the Air Force, but he could not see well enough to become a pilot. After he was discharged from the military, he would often sit in his backyard … Continue reading &rarr […]

    • Quote for our Age
      by Bob Seawright on 8th August 2017 at 7:34 pm

      Carl Sagan saw the future pretty well more than 20 years ago. Carl Sagan, The Demon-Haunted World, pp. 25-26 (1996). H/T: @KStreetHipster […]

    • The Prediction Game
      by Bob Seawright on 7th August 2017 at 6:15 pm

      In chess, there are 400 different possible positions after the opening two moves. There are 72,084 move combinations after each player has made two moves and over 288 billion scenarios after four moves each. The Shannon Number, which represents a conservative lower bound of … Continue reading &rarr […]

    • The Apocalypse is (Always) Nigh
      by Bob Seawright on 7th August 2017 at 12:23 am

      A Christian radio network called Family Radio began spreading “​the word of God to the world” in 1958 in a mundane way, featuring hymns and conventional – albeit very conservative – Bible teaching. Despite many years of growth and financial … Continue reading &rarr […]

    • Market Monitor (2Q 2017)
      by Bob Seawright on 4th July 2017 at 10:58 am

      […]


    Epsilon Theory – Salient Think beyond convention.

    • Mailbag: Life in Trumpland
      by Ben Hunt on 6th March 2017 at 5:17 pm

      The best part about this job, other than being recognized in random bars by 50-year old financial advisors who are always good to buy me a drink (hey, you take your celebrity where you can), is the correspondence with readers. I began writing Epsilon Theory 3+ years ago and from the outset I started getting emails from really smart people, truth-seekers all, making their way in this world of mendacity and inauthenticity without succumbing to it, and it’s given me — if not an optimism — then at least the occasional absence of despair about the world my daughters will inherit. I’m going to make a regular habit of what I always found to be the most enjoyable part of Bill Simmons’ Sports Guy blog — the reader Mailbag. I got more than the usual quota of great emails from my most recent note “The Evolution of Competition,” my take on the political and social polarization running rampant in Trumpworld. So without further ado... The post Mailbag: Life in Trumpland appeared first on Salient. […]

    • I’m Not Predicting, I’m Observing
      by Ben Hunt on 1st March 2017 at 11:33 pm

      George Soros has a great line, one that I’ve stolen many times: “I’m not predicting. I’m observing.” We really don’t have a crystal ball, and it really is a dumb idea to pretend that we do. But what’s not dumb is to keep your eyes and ears open, observing both what the world is telling you (playing the cards) and what other market participants are telling you (playing the players), and reacting accordingly. That’s the heart of tactical investing. The post I’m Not Predicting, I’m Observing appeared first on Salient. […]

    • The Evolution of Competition
      by Ben Hunt on 7th February 2017 at 1:38 am

      The Trump presidency is breaking us. Not because of the specifics of his policies or whether they’re right or wrong or anything like that. It’s breaking us because we now routinely talk past or yell at our friends, family, and fellow citizens, despite vast common ground on the really big ideas of what it means to be Americans or, more fundamentally still, a good human being. Game theory can’t solve this growing discordance or reverse the evolution of competition, but it can identify the issue and maybe, just maybe, show us ways to mitigate the damage. The post The Evolution of Competition appeared first on Salient. […]

    • Fiat Money, Fiat News
      by Ben Hunt on 4th January 2017 at 12:53 am

      The history of money provides instructive lessons for the dominant social issue of the past few months: fake news. There’s an important distinction to be made between politically slanted news, like when the Washington Post writes a silly article about Russians hacking the U.S. electric grid, and outright fakery. The former is fiat news, which is to “real news” what fiat currencies like dollars and euros and yen are to “real money” like a gold coin. Fake news is something different. Fake news is counterfeit news, which is to fiat news what counterfeit bank notes are to fiat currencies. The fiat news business is booming. As a result, the counterfeit news business is booming, too. And if the history of fiat money and counterfeit money is any guide, we ain’t seen nothing yet. The post Fiat Money, Fiat News appeared first on Salient. […]

    • The Art of the Probe
      by Ben Hunt on 8th December 2016 at 11:48 pm

      I’ve written a lot about The Common Knowledge Game – here, here, and here – because it’s the game of markets, i.e., it’s the central contribution of game theory to understanding how markets work. I’ve also written a lot about new technologies and new perspectives – here, here, and here – that help us see The Common Knowledge Game in action. But until today I’ve never written on a basic question: how can you be a better player in the game of markets? This is my first cut at an answer, and along the way I’ll pull examples from the game of poker and the game of nations. I think it’s a fun paper and hope you find it useful. The post The Art of the Probe appeared first on Salient. […]


    Slope of Hope Technical Analysis, SlopeCharts, and Bear Markets

    • Eclipse Sample Pack
      by Tim Knight on 22nd August 2017 at 4:11 pm

      I thought you might enjoy a trio from the shots I took yesterday in rural Oregon: […]

    • Longer-Term Weakness Ahead for Equities?
      by Strawberry Blonde on 22nd August 2017 at 1:02 pm

      Note from Tim: I’m back, safe and sound! I’ll be doing a final “eclipse post” when I have gone through the photos from my camera’s memory card. In the meanwhile, I’ll just say that the ES appears to be simply bouncing back toward its broken trendline. And now, let’s here from Strawberry Blonde!……… Most Major U.S. […]

    • Seeking Confirmations – US Stock Market
      by NFTRH on 21st August 2017 at 11:24 pm

      Below are the opening segment and an excerpt (on the headline indexes and the Healthcare sector) from the first regular segment of this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 461… Seeking Confirmations We have several inputs forecasting change (market pivots) ranging from seasonal tendencies to an expected US dollar rally, Fed monetary […]

    • Enveloped in Darkness
      by Tim Knight on 21st August 2017 at 6:58 pm

      I trekked into the wilderness with the hope of seeing something transcendent………and my expectations were completely blown away. I am so grateful I got to experience this, particularly with my beloved children. The picture below is a stock photo of an eclipse; I’ll post some of my own later this week. I was literally trembling […]

    • Triple-Bottom Bounce in Store for US Dollar?
      by Strawberry Blonde on 21st August 2017 at 7:26 am

      The US Dollar ($USD) has dropped to a triple-bottom major support level of 92.00 and is attempting to stabilize, as shown on the following Daily chart. Fairly major resistance lies overhead at 94.00. All three technical indicators are still in downtrend and the RSI is still below the 50 level, although the MACD and PMO have recently crossed over […]


    SMB Training Blog Lessons from the trading desk

    • [Recording] Mentoring with Bella (Webinar August 18)
      by smbcapital on 18th August 2017 at 3:17 pm

      Mike Bellafiore helped an improving trader from our community decide where to focus to get to the next level in his trading. […]

    • SMBU’s Options Tribe Webinar: How to Diversify Your Portfolio through Directional Options Trading
      by smbcapital on 16th August 2017 at 8:11 pm

      This week, Options Tribe member Robert Esposito makes his debut appearance on the Options Tribe, discussing how a trader’s investment portfolio can be diversified through the use of directional options. […]

    • Why SMB is putting millions behind this market neutral options system
      by smbcapital on 15th August 2017 at 3:24 pm

      Over the past five years, we have built out a successful options trading desk at our firm. The options strategy that SMB originally backed still represents the highest capital allocation with the highest percentage of traders implementing it. That strategy is John Locke’s M3 Options Trading System. Here are some key reasons why we believe in the M3. It has been successfully replicated ... Read Mor […]

    • [Recording] Team Trading with Bella (Webinar August 10)
      by admin on 11th August 2017 at 4:36 pm

      Last Thursday, Mike Bellafiore shared information about how traders at SMB use team trading to help them perform better—and how you can apply these principles from home.. […]

    • What is working for YOU
      by admin on 9th August 2017 at 2:29 pm

      When I receive emails from new and developing traders they often dwell on what is not working with their trading.  They recite with precision exactly what they are doing poorly and with thoughtful reasons for this.  Inevitably, they ask for help with these issues. My first response generally is to ask them what they do well.  And we then build ... Read Mor […]



    The Irrelevant Investor Just another WordPress site

    • These Are the Goods
      by Michael Batnick on 20th August 2017 at 11:44 am

      Articles Don’t ask big companies who sell annuities if you should own one. By Tony Isola From a surface-level standpoint, it looks like we’re either too selective, or complacent. Neither could be further from the truth. By Brent Beshore A virus that mutates and evolves means a vaccine that might work today won’t work tomorrow....... […]

    • Only a Market of Stocks
      by Michael Batnick on 13th August 2017 at 9:27 pm

      It’s hard to believe that the S&P 500 has been within 5% of its all-time high for the last 284 trading days, going all the way back to June, 2016. It would surprise no one if that streak ended sooner, rather than later. On Friday, The S&P 500 closed 1.99% below its all-time high. The...... […]

    • These Are the Goods
      by Michael Batnick on 13th August 2017 at 12:12 pm

      Articles Over-diversification can create a false sense of confidence whereby we believe we are well diversified, but in reality, a large number of investments actually share a common risk. By Corey Hoffstein An advisor who isn’t counting on some percentage of their clientele needing more than just emailed assurances probably isn’t being realistic. By Josh...... […]

    • 在庫バブル
      by Michael Batnick on 10th August 2017 at 1:59 pm

      Meb Faber recently asked three very interesting questions on Twitter. Do you currently own U.S. stocks? 87% Yes, 13% No (1,401 votes) Would you continue to hold U.S. stocks if valuations hit a 10-year PE (CAPE) of 50? 55% Yes, 45% No (1,282 votes) Would you continue to hold U.S. stocks if valuations hit a...... […]

    • If This is 1929…
      by Michael Batnick on 8th August 2017 at 12:54 am

      Eight days before the market bottomed in July 1932, Ben Graham wrote an article in Forbes, Should Rich But Losing Corporations Be Liquidated? In it he wrote, “More than one industrial company in three selling for less than its net current assets, with a large number quoted at less than their unencumbered cash.” At a time...... […]


    The Reformed Broker I help people invest and manage portfolios for them.


    Newfound Research Investing at the intersection of quantitative and behavioral finance


    A Teachable Moment Just another WordPress site

    • Chaos, Incompetence and Confusion
      by Anthony Isola on 21st August 2017 at 2:48 pm

      “Why do we love the idea that people might be secretly working together to control and organise the world? Because we do not like to face the fact that our world runs on a combination of chaos, incompetence, and confusion.” – Jonathan Cainer Investing success or failure may be determined by something you never noticed...... […]

    • It’s Monday Again…..When Is My Retirement?
      by Anthony Isola on 21st August 2017 at 11:52 am

      Good Morning! Here are this week’s retirement links. Have a great day. Here’s What To Expect If You Sell Annuities – Insurancenewsnet 6 Ways To Survive Retirement Income Shocks –  Forbes Read This Before You Get An Annuity – The Motley Fool For Workers Without Retirement Plans, States Step In – Wall Street Journal In Defense...... […]

    • Undying Courage
      by Anthony Isola on 15th August 2017 at 12:11 pm

        Courage is timeless; living forever, even after those who have displayed it are long gone. While Warren Buffet is fortunately still with us, he is closer to the end of his journey than the beginning. Not only is he an extraordinary quantitative investor, he understood when it was time to take a fearless stand....... […]

    • Worrying About Risk Can Very Risky
      by Anthony Isola on 14th August 2017 at 12:08 pm

      There is a huge bubble in unnecessary worry. Our greatest risk is choosing the wrong thing to worry about. Probability blindness is our enemy. For example, we vastly overstate the potential for cataclysmic markets events. “We pay close attention to some risks while ignoring others, which very often causes the dilemma of choosing between risks to vanish,” according to...... […]

    • It’s Monday Again….When Is My Retirement?
      by Anthony Isola on 14th August 2017 at 11:47 am

      Good Morning! Here are this weeks retirement links. Have a great week. Don’t Think Retirement Plans Are Safe From Tax Reform – BenefitsPro Vanguard Outsources Some 403(b) Record Keeping To Newport Group – InvestmentNews How An IRA Could Help The Average American Save For Retirement – The Motley Fool What Are Required Minimum Distributions? –...... […]


    Turing Finance Computer Science meets Quantitative Finance

    • Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis with R, Part One
      by StuartReid on 20th November 2016 at 12:00 pm

      Whilst working on some code for my Masters I kept thinking, "it would be really awesome if there was an R package which just consumed a price series and produced a data.frame of results from multiple randomness tests at multiple frequencies". ... Read More The post Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis with R, Part One appeared first on Turing Finance. […]

    • The Promise of Computing
      by StuartReid on 19th September 2016 at 9:00 pm

      You would be forgiven for thinking that Moore's law is a law like Newton's laws. It really does seem that as surely as an apple will fall to the ground, so too shall our computers, phones, tablets, and (now) watches capacity increase year-after-year ... Read More The post The Promise of Computing appeared first on Turing Finance. […]

    • Lossless Compression Algorithms and Market Efficiency?
      by StuartReid on 18th April 2016 at 3:00 pm

      In Hacking The Random Walk Hypothesis we applied the NIST suite of cryptographic tests for randomness to binarized daily market returns. Overall the NIST suite failed on the data. This result was taken to mean that markets are not quite the ... Read More The post Lossless Compression Algorithms and Market Efficiency? appeared first on Turing Finance. […]

    • Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks
      by StuartReid on 8th February 2016 at 8:00 am

      Because volatility seems to cluster in real life as well as the markets, it has been a while since my last article. Sorry about that. Today we will be taking our first giant leap along A Non-Random Walk down Wall Street. Read More The post Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks appeared first on Turing Finance. […]

    • How to be a Quant
      by StuartReid on 6th October 2015 at 10:00 pm

      Since writing about my experience writing the CFA Level I exam in June, I have received many emails from people interested in finding out how to become a quant. To some extent this post will answer that question. That said, this post is actually not ... Read More The post How to be a Quant appeared first on Turing Finance. […]


    UpsideTrader My Macro Visions, technicals, and The Long and Short Of It

    • Barcelona Terrorist Attack-Worst Day Since May
      by Joe Donohue on 18th August 2017 at 1:05 am

      The market finally came in hard today. - 1.5% for the S&P, -1.2 for the Dow, a big -2% for the Nazzy and -1.8% for the Russell 2000. The market gapped down today, moved lower from there, caught a little bounce in the pre lunch hour, then proceed to go lower all day. The SPX... The post Barcelona Terrorist Attack-Worst Day Since May appeared first on UpsideTrader. […]

    • A Decent Start To the Week
      by Joe Donohue on 14th August 2017 at 11:48 pm

      The weekend came and went without any major developments on the North Korean front, allowing investors to breathe a sigh of relief and launch another 'buy-the-dip' campaign on Monday.  U.S. Treasuries began the week on a lower note, giving back a portion of their gains from the end of last week. The retreat took place... The post A Decent Start To the Week appeared first on UpsideTrader. […]

    • Only Dennis Rodman Can Save Us Now
      by Joe Donohue on 8th August 2017 at 11:28 pm

      As Trump threatens to go full Daenerys Targaryen on North Korea, it has become evident to me that only Dennis Rodman can save us now. The Donald was quoted as saying today that if NK doesn't get its act together, "they will be met with fire and fury the likes of which the world has... The post Only Dennis Rodman Can Save Us Now appeared first on UpsideTrader. […]

    • Flat Day
      by Joe Donohue on 4th August 2017 at 1:20 am

      Dow: +9.86... Nasdaq: -22.30... S&P: -5.41... Equities ticked down today, and the energy sector tumbled 1.3% in its worst one-day performance since July 6. Just about all energy components finished in negative territory. XLE closed down 1.4% and XOP ( exploration & production) was down 3.5%. It's still hard to trust energy at this point and seems like they would... The post Flat Day appeared first on UpsideTrader. […]

    • Biotech Continues to Percolate
      by Joe Donohue on 25th July 2017 at 12:47 am

      Dow: -66.90... Nasdaq: +23.05... S&P: -2.63... It was a down day with the exception of the Nasdaq which rose about a half percent.  Biotech was the leader and there were some nice poppers in the sector.  If you ask me, XBI looks like it getting ready for a move to all time highs. If that does become a reality, then... The post Biotech Continues to Percolate appeared first on UpsideTrader. […]


    • Why Invest in Certified Pre-Owned (CPO) Vehicles
      by jeff pierce on 22nd August 2017 at 8:30 am

      By Charlie Brown A used car is the preferred option for many people and for many good reasons. These cars don’t experience the infamous first year depreciation hit that comes with new models from the showroom. What’s more, you can still get a relatively new model at a bargain and you will avoid potential car fees […]

    • Real Estate- A Worthwhile Investment Option
      by jeff pierce on 4th August 2017 at 6:20 am

      By Jackie Ross Many people wonder about whether or not real estate is among the good investments that they can make. With lower mortgage rates and accessible loans more investors are opting for real estate, especially when they seek long-term investment options and the potential for high returns. Value Appreciation – As time goes on, the […]

    • 4 Important Considerations to Make Before Buying a Shipping Container
      by jeff pierce on 4th August 2017 at 6:15 am

      By Charlie Brown Getting a high quality shipping container is vital to ensuring safe carriage of valuable goods across seas and lands when you’re in business. It is important to build yourself a fleet of reliable containers so that you can move large product quantities with ease. Beyond just knowing whether a container is new […]

    • Finance – Understanding the Basic Aspects of Shares
      by jeff pierce on 29th July 2017 at 3:35 am

      By Charlie Brown Owning shares or stock refers to having partial ownership of companies. Several people continue to invest and become shareholders. While shareholders do not personally own physical assets, they can invest in running the company. Shareholdings indicate the percentage of ownership in a company according to the amount a person has. Annual general […]

    • Canadian Trading Trends: What Makes Markets Tick
      by Luis Aureliano on 24th July 2017 at 2:13 pm

      Everybody wants to make a buck on the markets. The problem for so many of us is that the financial markets can be confusing and intimidating at times. The S&P/TSX is the premier stock exchange for Canadians. It lists a large selection public companies and the market capitalization was reported at $2.2841 trillion as at […]



    Above list excludes a few well known blogs but hosted on Blogspot that seems to not gel with the plugin I am using to extract the blog posts. Listing them in Alphabetical Order below

    Musings on Markets – Aswath Damodaran

    The Brooklyn Investor

    Econompic Data

    Jesse’s Cafe Americain

    Jonathan Clements

    Severian Asset Management

    StockBee

    The Chart Pattern Trader

    The Art of Trading

    VIX and more