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US Blog Roll
http://www.mercenarytrader.com/feed/

This is a feed from major US Blogs on Finance & Investment. If you find any new site that you feel is worth listing out here, please ping me either in the comments column or in the contact us form.



Abnormal Returns Forecast-free since 2005


Comments on: - | Adam H Grimes Musings on markets, risk, and life


    The Aleph Blog Helping Institutions and Ordinary People Invest Better by Focusing on Risk Control

    • Favorite Aleph Blog Post of 2017?
      by David Merkel on 9th December 2017 at 5:01 am

      As you might recall, I was invited to participate in The Best Investment Writing, Volume 1. Well, volume 2 is being discussed. This time, I thought I would let my readers offer their opinion on the matter. So, let me know, you can take this poll — oh, and can vote for as many as you […]

    • Classic: Wrecking Ball Looms for Big Housing Spec
      by David Merkel on 9th December 2017 at 3:59 am

      ==================== I thought this old post from RealMoney.com was lost, never to be found again.  This was the important post made on November 22, 2006 that forecast some of the troubles in the subprime residential mortgage backed securities market.  I favored the idea that there there would be a crash in residential housing prices, and […]

    • Estimating Future Stock Returns, September 2017 Update
      by David Merkel on 8th December 2017 at 9:33 am

      Another quarter goes by, the market rises further, and the the 10-year forward return falls again.  Here are the last eight values: 6.10%, 6.74%, 6.30%, 6.01%, 5.02%, 4.79%, and 4.30%, 3.99%.  At the end of September 2017, the figure would have been 4.49%, but the rally since the end of the quarter shaves future returns down […]

    • Notes from an Unwelcome Future, Part 1
      by David Merkel on 29th November 2017 at 1:11 am

      ============================================================== Dear Readers, this is another one of my occasional experiments, so please be measured in your comments.  The following was written as a ten-year retrospective article in 2042. ============================================================== It was indeed an ugly surprise to many when the payments from Social Security in February 2032 did not come.  Indeed, the phones in Congress […]

    • The Crisis Lending Fund
      by David Merkel on 18th November 2017 at 8:05 am

      =================== Last week, there was an article in Barron’s describing how many mutual fund families take advantage of a provision in the law allowing them to have funds lend to one another.  Quoting from the article: Under normal circumstances the Securities and Exchange Commission bars funds from making “affiliated transactions,” but there’s a loophole in […]


    All Star Charts Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets

    • Precious Metals Continue Their Downtrends
      by JC on 11th December 2017 at 10:00 pm

      One thing I feel has gotten lost in the whole “Stocks and Bitcoin make all-time highs every day” rhetoric is the overwhelming weakness in precious metals. Gold, Silver, Platinum and Gold Mining stocks are all making new lows, resuming their trend of lower lows and lower highs. We’ve been aggressively bearish Gold, Gold Mining Stocks and […] The post Precious Metals Continue Their Downtrends appeared first on All Star Charts. […]

    • [Chart Of The Week] Financials Making New Highs Is Not Bearish
      by JC on 8th December 2017 at 8:31 pm

      We look to Financials as a leader. We’ve never had a bull market in US Stocks without participation from the banks. They don’t necessarily need to be leading but they do need to participate. When we see the S&P Financials Index going out at new 10-year weekly closing highs, it’s hard to be bearish stocks […] The post [Chart Of The Week] Financials Making New Highs Is Not Bearish appeared first on All Star Charts. […]

    • [Premium] Members-Only Conference Call Wednesday December 13th at 7PM ET
      by JC on 7th December 2017 at 7:06 pm

      Every month I host a conference call for All Star Charts Premium Members where we discuss ongoing themes throughout the global marketplace as well as changes in trends where new positions would be most appropriate. This includes U.S. Stocks & Sectors, International Stock Indexes, Commodities, Currencies and Interest Rate Markets. We’ve been bullish towards US and Global […] The post [Premium] Members-Only Conference Call Wednesday December 13th at 7PM ET appeared first on All Star Charts. […]

    • [Premium] Dow Jones Transportation Stocks Are Breaking Out!
      by JC on 5th December 2017 at 7:58 pm

      There is a lot to be said for taking the time to analyze all of the stocks in an index. I find that process to be much more rewarding than obsessing over every 50 basis point move in the index itself. I’ve written in the past about how I think the Dow Jones Industrial Average […] The post [Premium] Dow Jones Transportation Stocks Are Breaking Out! appeared first on All Star Charts. […]

    • Podcast Season 1 – Ep 13 – James Bianco, President and Macro Strategist at Bianco Research
      by JC on 4th December 2017 at 8:29 pm

      James Bianco is someone who has definitely influenced my work throughout my career. If you’ve ever watched one of my presentations, you know I could rip through 150 charts in an hour without a problem. I’m pretty sure I got in this habit watching James Bianco. Also, his multiple timeframe approach to Interest Rates and […] The post Podcast Season 1 – Ep 13 – James Bianco, President and Macro Strategist at Bianco Research appeared first on All Star Charts. […]


    Alpha Architect Empowering Investors Through Education

    • Academic Research Insight: Beware of the Surprise Departure of Independent Directors!
      by Tommi Johnsen, PhD on 11th December 2017 at 4:27 pm

      Do Independent Director Departures Predict Future Bad Events? Rüdiger Fahlenbrach, Angie Low, and René M. Stulz The Review of Financial Studies A version of this paper can be found here Want to read our summaries of academic finance papers? Check out our Academic Research Insight category What are the research questions? What are the general circumstances [...] The post "Academic Research Insight: Beware of the Surprise Departure of Independent Directors!" appeared first on Alpha Architect. […]

    • Momentum and Market Anomalies
      by Larry Swedroe on 8th December 2017 at 4:29 pm

      Momentum is the tendency for assets that have performed well (poorly) in the recent past to continue to perform well (poorly) in the future, at least for a short period of time. Initial research on momentum was published by Narasimhan Jegadeesh and Sheridan Titman, authors of the 1993 study, “Returns to Buying Winners and Selling [...] The post "Momentum and Market Anomalies" appeared first on Alpha Architect. […]

    • Historical Finance Fight: Ben Graham versus H.M. Gartley
      by Wesley R. Gray, Ph.D. on 7th December 2017 at 4:41 pm

      Reading really old research is humbling. https://archive.org/ is an awesome place to start. One quickly recognizes that market participants were very savvy way back in the day. I've always assumed that investors today are more intelligent and armed with better capabilities. I question that assumption. We almost certainly don't have higher IQs, and I think our core understanding of [...] The post "Historical Finance Fight: Ben Graham versus H.M. Gartley" appeared first on Alpha Architect. […]

    • DIY Asset Allocation Weights: December 2017
      by Wesley R. Gray, Ph.D. on 6th December 2017 at 2:20 pm

      Do-It-Yourself tactical asset allocation weights for the Robust Asset Allocation Index are posted here.[ref] Create a free account here if you want to access the site directly. The link is here. [/ref] Exposure Highlights:[ref]The information contained herein is only as current as of the date indicated and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. [...] The post "DIY Asset Allocation Weights: December 2017" appeared first on Alpha Architect. […]

    • Academic Research Insight: Diverisification is Not Always a Free Lunch
      by Elisabetta Basilico, PhD, CFA on 4th December 2017 at 4:34 pm

      What Free Lunch? The Costs of Overdiversification Shawn McKay, Robert Shapiro, Ric Thomas A version of this paper can be found here Want to read our summaries of academic finance papers? Check out our Academic Research Insight category. What are the research questions? Diversification is often thought of as the only "free lunch" in finance and it is [...] The post "Academic Research Insight: Diverisification is Not Always a Free Lunch" appeared first on Alpha Architect. […]


    Andrew Thrasher – technical analysis

    • A Week In Review: Sector Analysis, Correlations, A Unique Price Movement, Money Mistakes, IPO Activity, & Wagyu Beef
      by Andrew Thrasher, CMT on 11th December 2017 at 11:31 am

      The S&P 500 was able to squeak out a gain last week, finishing up 0.35% with the Dow closing up 0.40% but we saw a decline in small caps as the Russell 200 closed lower by 1.05% and international equities Continue reading A Week In Review: Sector Analysis, Correlations, A Unique Price Movement, Money Mistakes, IPO Activity, & Wagyu Beef→ The post A Week In Review: Sector Analysis, Correlations, A Unique Price Movement, Money Mistakes, IPO Activity, & Wagyu Beef appeared first on . […]

    • Beaten Up Internet Stocks Could Soon Recover
      by Andrew Thrasher, CMT on 6th December 2017 at 1:56 pm

      There’s been an assumed rotation out of some of the best performing internet stocks of 2017, seeing several decline by double digits over the past two weeks. And it is this selling that has given some traders a reason to Continue reading Beaten Up Internet Stocks Could Soon Recover→ The post Beaten Up Internet Stocks Could Soon Recover appeared first on . […]

    • A Week in Review: Record Volume, Yield Curve, Sectors, Japan, Cash Allocation, & Seasonality 12/4/2017
      by Andrew Thrasher, CMT on 4th December 2017 at 11:30 am

      While Friday made for some interesting trading, the major indices overall remain in up trends and above their short- and intermediate-trend moving average and trend lines. The S&P 500 finished the week up 1.53%, the Dow was up 2.86%, Small Continue reading A Week in Review: Record Volume, Yield Curve, Sectors, Japan, Cash Allocation, & Seasonality 12/4/2017→ The post A Week in Review: Record Volume, Yield Curve, Sectors, Japan, Cash Allocation, & Seasonality 12/4/2017 appeared first on . […]

    • Large Cap Stocks Versus Everything Else
      by Andrew Thrasher, CMT on 29th November 2017 at 11:30 am

      I’ve said it numerous times in the last few months, 2017 has been the year of setting records. No one said that trading or investing was supposed to be easy. Albeit some have had the false belief that it is Continue reading Large Cap Stocks Versus Everything Else→ The post Large Cap Stocks Versus Everything Else appeared first on . […]

    • A Week in Review: Volatility, Momentum, Breadth, Sectors, Taxes & Sentiment 11/20/2017
      by Andrew Thrasher, CMT on 20th November 2017 at 11:30 am

      As we move into a holiday-shortened week, here are the charts and articles I think worth sharing on this Monday morning. Hope you enjoy and have a Happy Thanksgiving! Volatility Index For only the third time this year, momentum for Continue reading A Week in Review: Volatility, Momentum, Breadth, Sectors, Taxes & Sentiment 11/20/2017→ The post A Week in Review: Volatility, Momentum, Breadth, Sectors, Taxes & Sentiment 11/20/2017 appeared first on . […]


    A Wealth of Common Sense Personal Finance, Investments & Markets

    • What a Complacent Investor Looks Like
      by Ben Carlson on 10th December 2017 at 8:36 pm

      During three separate interviews this week I was asked if I was seeing any signs of complacency among investors, markets, or clients. If anything, the people I talk to are more concerned with the high probability of lower market returns in the future but my view is surely clouded by the clientele and readers I...... […]

    • How Does Something Like Bitcoin Happen?
      by Ben Carlson on 7th December 2017 at 9:01 pm

      Bitcoin’s rise is a sight to behold. Just look at this chart: It seemed insane that the price went through $9,000 at Thanksgiving. Today it was over $19,000 at one point! It’s unreal. I honestly believe we have a front row seat to what could end up being one of the craziest manias of all-time....... […]

    • Animal Spirits Episode 7: A Random Walk Down Nowhere
      by Ben Carlson on 6th December 2017 at 1:17 pm

      On this week’s Animal Spirits with Michael & Ben we discuss: How having kids has changed our perspective on our finances The rising cost of childcare The great baby bust of 2017 Automation’s threat to the workforce Why market valuations are like NBA teams A slump in venture capital seed funding The holy grail of...... […]

    • When Small Caps Finally Joined the Party
      by Ben Carlson on 5th December 2017 at 7:19 pm

      While the markets have been rocking across the globe in 2017 without a hint of volatility, the current bull market hasn’t always been easy. The S&P 500 hasn’t hit the standard definition of a bear market (a drawdown of 20% or more) in many years but a number of other markets did in late-2015/early-2016. Small...... […]

    • Prosperity is a State of Mind
      by Ben Carlson on 4th December 2017 at 1:02 am

      A large contingent of investors has been perplexed by the resilience of the markets and the economy throughout this cycle. Volatility in both stocks and economic growth remain muted even though they’ve been given plenty of excuses to go berserk. Eventually this stability will come to an end (it always does) but it’s worth discussing why...... […]


    Behavior Gap Exploring human behavior with a Sharpie

    • Ouch, that fence was electric!
      by Carl Richards on 8th December 2017 at 2:53 am

      Dave has had some unexpected success over the past 12 months. Massive success. The only problem is that with that success comes a lot of fear, uncertainty, and anxiety. What do you do with that? My attempt to answer that question, today on BG Radio. Listen time: 7:12 The post Ouch, that fence was electric! appeared first on Behavior Gap. […]

    • Surfing Through Waves of Uncertainty
      by Carl Richards on 3rd October 2017 at 4:21 pm

      Dave has had some unexpected success over the past 12 months. Massive success. The only problem is that with that success comes a lot of fear, uncertainty, and anxiety. What do you do with that? My attempt to answer that question, today on BG Radio. Listen time: 7:12 The post Surfing Through Waves of Uncertainty appeared first on Behavior Gap. […]

    • Why Did I Wait So Long?
      by Carl Richards on 20th September 2017 at 6:46 pm

      Ryan's been working for other people for the last 15 years. He's been wanting to start his own company for almost as long. He finally started. Two months into the change, he can't imagine why he didn't do it sooner. So, listener, what do you think? Listen time: 4:07 The post Why Did I Wait So Long? appeared first on Behavior Gap. […]

    • Please Tell Me What You’re Up To
      by Carl Richards on 18th September 2017 at 4:20 pm

      People who are "up to something" are my favorite people. It doesn't even matter WHAT they are up to. Just so long as they have that special look in their eye. So what are YOU up to? Or better yet, what do you WANT to be up to? Listen time: 3:49 The post Please Tell Me What You’re Up To appeared first on Behavior Gap. […]

    • You Need to Play in Traffic – Trust Me
      by Carl Richards on 13th September 2017 at 2:05 pm

      Play in traffic. If you don't how are you ever going to get hit? If people don't know about your work, it's hard to get recognition for it. Whatever you do, do it in public. No more hiding - show your work. Today on BG Radio: Conditions for Success, 3 of 3. Listen time: 2:21 The post You Need to Play in Traffic – Trust Me appeared first on Behavior Gap. […]


    Behavior Gap Exploring human behavior with a Sharpie

    • Ouch, that fence was electric!
      by Carl Richards on 8th December 2017 at 2:53 am

      Dave has had some unexpected success over the past 12 months. Massive success. The only problem is that with that success comes a lot of fear, uncertainty, and anxiety. What do you do with that? My attempt to answer that question, today on BG Radio. Listen time: 7:12 The post Ouch, that fence was electric! appeared first on Behavior Gap. […]

    • Surfing Through Waves of Uncertainty
      by Carl Richards on 3rd October 2017 at 4:21 pm

      Dave has had some unexpected success over the past 12 months. Massive success. The only problem is that with that success comes a lot of fear, uncertainty, and anxiety. What do you do with that? My attempt to answer that question, today on BG Radio. Listen time: 7:12 The post Surfing Through Waves of Uncertainty appeared first on Behavior Gap. […]

    • Why Did I Wait So Long?
      by Carl Richards on 20th September 2017 at 6:46 pm

      Ryan's been working for other people for the last 15 years. He's been wanting to start his own company for almost as long. He finally started. Two months into the change, he can't imagine why he didn't do it sooner. So, listener, what do you think? Listen time: 4:07 The post Why Did I Wait So Long? appeared first on Behavior Gap. […]

    • Please Tell Me What You’re Up To
      by Carl Richards on 18th September 2017 at 4:20 pm

      People who are "up to something" are my favorite people. It doesn't even matter WHAT they are up to. Just so long as they have that special look in their eye. So what are YOU up to? Or better yet, what do you WANT to be up to? Listen time: 3:49 The post Please Tell Me What You’re Up To appeared first on Behavior Gap. […]

    • You Need to Play in Traffic – Trust Me
      by Carl Richards on 13th September 2017 at 2:05 pm

      Play in traffic. If you don't how are you ever going to get hit? If people don't know about your work, it's hard to get recognition for it. Whatever you do, do it in public. No more hiding - show your work. Today on BG Radio: Conditions for Success, 3 of 3. Listen time: 2:21 The post You Need to Play in Traffic – Trust Me appeared first on Behavior Gap. […]


    Collaborative Fund Collaborative Fund is a leading source of capital for entrepreneurs pushing the world forward.

    • What We're Reading
      on 8th December 2017 at 1:28 pm

      A few good articles the Collab team came across this week … Shifts The VC market is concentrating: Since 2014, the number of VC rounds in technology companies worldwide has nearly halved, from 19,000 to 10,000, according to PitchBook. During that time, the drop in VC funding amount has been nowhere near as dramatic, highlighting that VCs are concentrating investment into fewer later-stage companies. Economics Good news for electric cars: Lithium-ion battery packs are selling at an average price of $209 a kilowatt-hour, down 24 percent from a year ago and about a fifth of what it was in 2010, a Bloomberg New Energy Finance survey shows. The rate has further to fall – reaching below $100 a kilowatt-hour by 2025, according to a report by BNEF analyst James Frith. That’s a magic number for the electric car business. According to Frith, $100 is widely seen as “a tipping point in the adoption of EVs.” Progress Where life is (and isn’t) getting better: Market share The big players: Imagine a world in which two asset managers call the shots, in which their wealth exceeds current U.S. GDP and where almost every hedge fund, government and retiree is a customer. It’s closer than you think. BlackRock Inc. and Vanguard Group — already the world’s largest money managers — are less than a decade from managing a total of $20 trillion, according to Bloomberg News calculations. Pricing power Unreal: Tolls in the high-occupancy toll lanes hit $34.50 — or close to $3.50 a mile — to drive the 10-mile stretch from the Beltway to Washington during the height of the morning commute. The toll reached $40 on Tuesday morning. Reliability This is amazing. 13 billion miles from earth: A set of thrusters aboard the Voyager 1 spacecraft successfully fired up Wednesday after 37 years without use. Voyager 1, NASA’s farthest and fastest spacecraft, is the only human-made object in interstellar space, the environment between the stars. The spacecraft, which has been flying for 40 years, relies on small devices called thrusters to orient itself so it can communicate with Earth. Have a good weekend. […]

    • How To Read Financial News
      on 6th December 2017 at 4:28 pm

      October 27th, 1929. It’s the day before the Great Depression begins. One of the most important days in market history. Let’s go back in a time. What would you find? Dig through the New York Times that day, and the entirety of stock market coverage is summarized on one page, a third of which is a Chanel shoe ad. That’s it. The difference in how much – and what kind of – financial information existed then vs. today is astronomical. And we don’t have to go back to 1929 to find a similar world. Twenty-five years ago the papers – and how most investors accessed market information – weren’t much different than they were in 1929. Or 1879. All of that changed in the last 25 years. And it exploded in the last 10 years. The advent of financial news TV mastered the art of saying a tremendous amount of something when nothing needs to be said. Blogs, Twitter, and podcasts have taken it to a new level. Here are a few things that help me make sense of the amount of content we have today. Bucket everything that catches your attention into a category of relevance. There’s a hierarchy of news and information that looks something like this: The takeaway here is that good, relevant content is extremely rare. You should have no tolerance for the lower half of categories in this chart, and asking yourself where something fits before reading it is vital. Giving yourself permission to move on quickly provides more time to find something relevant. Read stuff you disagree with, written by people you respect. Charlie Munger says a prerequisite to having an opinion is stating the opposing side’s view as well as they can. Modern financial media makes that hard, because no matter what you believe you can find a well-designed blog that agrees with you, and confirmation is more comfortable than opposition. Reading stuff you disagree with is not natural. You have to force yourself into it. But even that’s not good enough, because the most attractive opposing views are written by idiots, amateurs, quacks, and salesmen. They’re the easiest to shoot down, allowing yourself to say, “Ah-ha, the other side is wrong and therefore I am right.” You have to seek out opposing views from people whose thought process you respect. That probably means people who you agree with on other topics. If you can say, “I know you’re reasonable, because you and I agree on X. So why do we disagree on Y?” … boom! You’re a step closer to reasonably figuring out the opposing view. Figuring out how the world works. Which is what we’re all trying to do. Read more than pure finance. Investor Patrick O’Shaughnessy has a book club. An email he sent to his readers a few years ago began: “Consistent with my belief that it is more productive to read around one’s field than in one’s field, there are no investing books on this list.” This is so smart. Investing is not the study of finance. It’s the study of how humans behave with money. When you realize it’s the study of human behavior, you see that it incorporates the lessons and laws from all kinds of different fields. Psychology. Sociology. Statistics. Biology. History. Politics. Rule of thumb: If it looks into how people behave in groups and respond to incentives, it’ll teach you something about investing. My friend Nick Maggiulli wrote an article this week that begins: “It had been nine days since Volkert Evertszoon and his fellow shipmates had consumed anything other than their own urine.” He uses that story to frame a discussion around investment risk and valuation. This kind of stuff is not only more entertaining than pure finance; it gets you closer to understanding how people behave in the real world, which is what finance is all about. Old news is the best guide of how to treat current news. Old news is amazing. It is the most unfiltered historian, offering a view of the world that suffers from no historian’s subjective editing of what’s important. The historian of old news teaches a few things: That forecasting markets and economies is nearly impossible; that people will never stop believing in forecasts; and that the biggest news stories in hindsight are the ones no one was talking about with foresight. It’s an important framework to remember when reading today’s news. Old news also shows that most of what seemed like important news at the time was quickly forgotten. Take this August 2011 headline: “Dow falls 512 in steepest decline since ‘08 crisis.” That was a big deal at a the time. But how many people still care about it today? Few, if any. Every piece of financial news you read should be filtered by asking the question, “Will I still care about this in a year? Five years? Ten years?” The goal of information should be to help you make better decisions between now and the end of your ultimate goals. Read old news and you’ll quickly see that the life expectancy of your goals is higher than that of the vast majority of headlines. Understand that people play different games. A long-term investor sees a headline about selling stocks before earnings and shakes his head in disbelief. A trader reads an article about Stocks for the Long Run and thinks people are oblivious. Momentum investors think they’re both missing it. Bond investors think all three are crazy. It’s fine. There are all kinds of ways to invest. What’s important, as a reader, is that you don’t take your cues from someone writing about a different game. A perspective can be highly relevant to one person and irrelevant to another if those people have different time horizons or different goals. When you find yourself disagreeing with something, ask whether you’re actually just playing a different game than the person who wrote it. Actionable takeaways should be rare. Why read something if it doesn’t lead to an actionable takeaway? I’ll tell you why: Because the person writing the article has no idea who you are, what your goals are, what your situation is, or how it will affect you. The best kind of content is empathetic to this disconnect. It pushes readers in a general direction while leaving all actions up to the readers themselves. This is rare, especially in formal journalism. I worked with editors in the past who would basically say, “I like this article, but it doesn’t tell readers what button to push in their ETrade account.” Drove me crazy. As a writer, you add the most value acknowledging that you don’t know your reader. As a reader, you gain the most by remembering that the writer has no idea who you are. Now, what to read? A list of my favorites here. […]

    • What We're Reading
      on 1st December 2017 at 12:59 pm

      A few good articles the Collab team came across this week … Crypto Josh Brown on the surge: The first opposing thought you must hold is that Bitcoin has already crashed by 80% on five separate occasions over the last few years. But each crash has brought in a cavalcade of media attention, which in turn has brought in new interest from the public and, as a result, fresh record highs in the ensuing recoveries. Do you really think the sixth major crash is going to be the one that does the trick? The seventh? Business models The state of digital media: There have been numerous cases over the last six months to a year in which digital publishers have announced either major job cuts or in some cases literally fired their entire editorial teams in order to ‘pivot to video.’ The phrase has almost become a punchline since, as I’ve argued, there is basically no publisher in existence involved in any sort of news or political news coverage who says to themselves, my readers are demanding more of their news on video as opposed to text. Not a single one. The move to video is driven entirely by advertiser demand. Agriculture The new farmers: For only the second time in the last century, the number of farmers under 35 years old is increasing, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s latest Census of Agriculture. Sixty-nine percent of the surveyed young farmers had college degrees — significantly higher than the general population. Competition A wonderful story about learning: Magnus can look at the pieces of a chessboard and immediately recall what match it was, who was playing, when and where it took place and why it was worth his attention. It’s difficult to appreciate how amazing this is without seeing it for yourself. “I know how to play chess,” he said. “I don’t know much else.” Car hacking Well done: JJ has been renting cars full-time since 2012. His car at the time broke down, and after completing a few calculations, he realized renting cars and earning airline miles with each rental would make more financial sense than owning a car. He began visiting the Las Vegas McCarren Airport rental car center and quickly educated himself on the ins and outs of renting cars and finding the best prices. Since then, he’s completed 979 rentals. Information How nice: On 18 April 1930, the BBC’s news announcer had nothing to communicate. “There is no news,” was the script of the 20:45 news bulletin, before piano music was played for the rest of the 15-minute segment. The wireless service then returned to broadcasting from the Queen’s Hall in Langham Place, London, where the Wagner opera Parsifal was being performed. Have a nice weekend. […]

    • Conflicting Skill Sets
      on 30th November 2017 at 2:12 am

      F. Scott Fitzgerald said intelligence is “the ability to hold two opposing ideas in your head at the same time and still retain the ability to function.” It’s so hard to do. But there are all kinds of examples of when it’s necessary in investing. Getting rich requires the willingness to take big risks. Staying rich requires the paranoia to avoid big risks. Trusting your gut means there are true things that you can’t articulate. Being skeptical of your biases means knowing that you confidently articulate things that aren’t true. Being contrarian requires taking a stance most people don’t agree with. Being reasonable requires realizing that most people, as a group, are smarter than you. Being patient requires the ability to endure periods of loss. Raising money, in the investing industry, often requires avoiding periods of loss. Having confidence means staying with an idea when it’s not going well. Having humility means abandoning an idea when it’s been proven wrong. Managing employees requires giving them structure and oversight. Maintaining employees requires giving them freedom and autonomy. Being competitive requires giving work 100% of your effort. Being sustainability competitive requires enough rest and variety in your life to avoid burnout. Being focused requires tuning out the noise. Being informed requires reading as much as you can to ensure you don’t miss something important. Discipline requires following a strategy when you’re tempted to break the rules. Adaptability requires realizing when your rules have lost relevance. These all have a common denominator: They require you to be open-minded, question assumptions, and never become too comfortable. […]

    • Great Products vs. Great Businesses
      on 29th November 2017 at 1:37 pm

      In January 2004, when Facebook was a days-old dorm room project, Mark Zuckerberg was asked by a friend whether he thought his social network would make money. “Well I don’t know business stuff,” Zuckerberg responded over IM. “I’m content to make something cool.” From that moment through today, Facebook’s market cap has increased by $964 per second. So the business stuff worked itself out. But we have to acknowledge how rare this is. Because the business world is increasingly filled with something that makes me nervous: Great products with little to no sustainable business model backing them, driven by the expectation that, like Facebook, if users enjoy the product enough, sufficient money will follow. Something that should be more obvious than it is is that the gap between a great product and a great business can be ten miles wide. Often times that gap is correlated: The reason some products become popular is because users aren’t paying a sustainable price for them. They’re getting investor-subsidized services, and of course they like that. Start with some loose definitions: A product is something that solves someone’s problem. A business is a product that works so well that people will pay more than it costs to produce. Just separating those out as two different things is important, because while every great business is backed by a great product, not every great product turns into a great business. Making a business work requires mastering a series of steps, each one harder than the one before it. I call it the hierarchy of profit: Great products live in the top few bars of this pyramid. Getting from there to the bottom is incredibly hard. Brent Beshore says building a company is like getting punched in the face while eating glass. It doesn’t happen overnight, and figuring out how to make it work means running losses for a period of time. But losses come in different flavors. There is a difference between a company that loses money because it’s investing in the infrastructure needed to become a profitable company, and a company that loses money because it can’t charge customers a price that reflects what it costs to run the business. But we often conflate the two, treating all loss-making startups with a sense of, “It’s OK, they’re growing.” (Fred Wilson has a great post on how much burn is reasonable). When Stitch Fix announced it was going public last month, people were shocked at how strong its financials were. Stitch Fix had profits. It actually asked customers for more money than it cost to run the business. People who study young tech companies were floored: “Stitch Fix files for IPO… and miraculously, they’re almost profitable.” “$1B IPO and Profitable…a word rarely seen in any tech company overview.” “Stitch Fix’s IPO Showcases the Rarest of Unicorn Traits—Profit.” Stitch Fix should be praised because it’s built an awesome business. Several other startups have done the same: Sweetgreen and Simply Gum come to mind. But it’s disheartening how unusual this financial success is treated, particularly at companies that are five or more years old. It’s treated as rare because we – investors, entrepreneurs, journalists – have become too comfortable with companies that make awesome products but don’t have an awesome business. Or any business. Part of this has to do with how the venture capital industry has evolved in recent years. Companies are staying private longer than they used to. So venture investors that specialize in the early phase of big-losses-because-we’re-investing-in-what-it-takes-to-build-a-profitable-business have found themselves holding mature companies that in a different era would have been passed onto investors who demanded a sustainable business model with profits. In any other era, Uber, Airbnb, Pinterest, and others all would have been public companies by now. And public markets almost certainly wouldn’t let losses pile up for as long as they have. We’ve seen this with Blue Apron and Snap, whose shares have fallen between 50% and 70% since going public just months ago. Both make amazing products that attracted armies of users, which VC investors oogled over. But public investors took one look at their business models and said, “What the hell is this?!” Who knows what that means for their future as standalone companies. Facebook probably set a bad precedent, giving founders and investors the impression that you should just focus on product and when the time comes all you have to do is flip the advertising switch and poof, you’ll create a money machine. It rarely happens that way. Or anything even close to it. One of my fears is that we’ll look back at the last decade of innovation and realize we were good at making awesome products, but didn’t realize the full potential of those products because we didn’t focus enough on sustaining them with viable businesses. A common phrase I hear from founders is, “I want to build a company that lasts a generation.” I love it – it’s the perfect attitude. But the best way to fulfill that vision has to be building a great business with the same passion that’s given to building a great product. And that strategy should be implemented early on, ingrained in the company’s culture and viewed as an integral part of controlling your company’s destiny. This doesn’t have anything to do with appeasing greedy investors. And it doesn’t have anything to do with taking away focus from your product. It’s almost the opposite. Zuckerberg, to his credit, figured this out. When Facebook went public, its S-1 said, “Simply put: we don’t build services to make money; we make money to build better services.&rdquo […]



    CSSA new concepts in quantitative research

    • Adaptive Volatility: A Robustness Test Using Global Risk Parity
      by david varadi on 29th November 2017 at 8:37 pm

      In the last post we introduced the concept of using adaptive volatility in order to have a flexible lookback as a function of market conditions. We used the R-squared of price as a proxy for the strength of the trend in the underlying market in order to vary the half-life in an exponential moving average […]

    • Adaptive Volatility
      by david varadi on 16th November 2017 at 2:42 am

      One of the inherent challenges in designing strategies is the need to specify certain parameters. Volatility parameters tend to work fairly well regardless of lookback, but there are inherent trade-offs to using short-term versus longer-term volatility. The former is more responsive to current market conditions while the latter is more stable. One approach is to […]

    • Risk Management and Dynamic Beta Podast
      by david varadi on 4th August 2017 at 3:52 pm

      I had the honor of speaking with Mebane Faber of Cambria Investment Management recently where I discussed the topic of risk management and also applying a dynamic beta approach on his widely popular podcast “The Mebane Faber Show”. The interview is almost an hour and covers a wide range of topics whether you are a quant geek like myself […]

    • Welcome QuantX!
      by david varadi on 27th January 2017 at 7:23 pm

      I am very proud to announce that readers can finally have access to products based on many of the quantitative ideas used in the blogosphere and published in academic research. Yesterday we launched five new ETFs through the QuantX Brand (linked to Blue Sky Asset Management).  They provide the building blocks to design customized portfolios […]

    • Tracking the Performance of Tactical Strategies
      by david varadi on 8th September 2016 at 9:03 pm

      There is a cool new website that tracks the performance of well-known tactical strategies. AllocateSmartly  has collected an extensive list of strategies from well-known hedge fund managers like Ray Dalio along with several other portfolio managers and financial bloggers. The backtests for these strategies use a very detailed and comprehensive method that is both conservative […]


    Derek Hernquist Just another WordPress site

    • Why Active OR Passive?
      by Derek on 6th September 2014 at 3:23 pm

      “Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others” Winston Churchill Not sure if it’s me, or the bull market, but the passive>active […] The post Why Active OR Passive? appeared first on Derek Hernquist. […]

    • A New “Trend” For Me
      by Derek on 20th July 2014 at 3:22 pm

      “I believe that understanding what is good is obtained by looking at the way the world works and operating in harmony with it to help […] The post A New “Trend” For Me appeared first on Derek Hernquist. […]

    • Play Ball!
      by Derek on 10th May 2014 at 1:31 pm

      “Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains.”  Crash Davis Fridays are my son’s baseball practices. We need the field time, with last weekend’s […] The post Play Ball! appeared first on Derek Hernquist. […]

    • The Only Truth in Markets is Surprise
      by Derek on 26th April 2014 at 12:58 pm

      “Blessed is he who expects nothing, for he shall never be disappointed.” Alexander Pope That phrase has stuck since I was a kid, written under […] The post The Only Truth in Markets is Surprise appeared first on Derek Hernquist. […]

    • I Have No Idea What Tesla is Worth, Do You?
      by Derek on 5th March 2014 at 4:24 pm

      “Where can I get into this trend at a low risk spot?” Brian Shannon This is a little late, but having made some notes from […] The post I Have No Idea What Tesla is Worth, Do You? appeared first on Derek Hernquist. […]


    Dragonfly Capital What the Charts are Saying about the Market


    The Evidence-Based Investor Buffett and Bogle are right — the best way to invest is to buy and hold a low-cost and highly diversified portfolio of assets for a very long time.

    • Putting an actual value on advice is impossible
      by Robin Powell on 11th December 2017 at 4:18 pm

      These days we’re obsessed by value — not just businesses, but individuals too. We all want to make the most of the limited financial resources at our disposal, and quite right too. There is however a danger in constantly looking at value in purely monetary terms. In other words, how much will it save me, in […] The post Putting an actual value on advice is impossible appeared first on The Evidence-Based Investor. […]

    • Is factor investing worth it?
      by Robin Powell on 8th December 2017 at 2:04 pm

      Broadly speaking, evidence-based investors fall into three categories when it comes to the type of funds they prefer to use. First there are traditional indexers — the Bogleheads, if you like — who love the simplicity of market-cap weighting. Second, there are those who prefer factor-based investing — in other words, tilting their portfolios to risk factors which […] The post Is factor investing worth it? appeared first on The Evidence-Based Investor. […]

    • Metis Ireland: No blarney, just the evidence
      by Robin Powell on 6th December 2017 at 2:35 pm

      Evidence-based investing truly is growing around the world. Take my own company, which began producing content for a solitary financial advice firm in Birmingham, England, five years ago. Today we have clients in ten different countries. In fact, make that eleven, because we’re now working with Metis Ireland, an evidence-based financial planning firm with offices […] The post Metis Ireland: No blarney, just the evidence appeared first on The Evidence-Based Investor. […]

    • Passive investing? Smart investing is a better description
      by Robin Powell on 5th December 2017 at 5:46 pm

      I’ve never liked the term passive investing. For a start, there’s no such thing; all investing involves making active decisions to some extent. Nor is it always a helpful distinction. Take Dimensional Fund Advisors, for example, whose funds actively seek exposure to specific sections of the market but do so in a broadly passive way. […] The post Passive investing? Smart investing is a better description appeared first on The Evidence-Based Investor. […]

    • Share this film and help change investing for good
      by Robin Powell on 2nd December 2017 at 6:05 pm

      “First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.”   I remember someone tweeting me that quote (often credited, rightly or wrongly, to Mahatma Ghandi), when I released my first documentary about evidence-based investing five years ago. The film’s basic argument went like this. There’s a shedload of […] The post Share this film and help change investing for good appeared first on The Evidence-Based Investor. […]


    • ‘Tis the Season for Giving
      by sidoxia on 2nd December 2017 at 1:30 pm

      This article is an excerpt from a previously released Sidoxia Capital Management complimentary newsletter (December 1, 2017). Subscribe on the right side of the page for the complete text. Holiday season is in full swing, and that means it’s the primetime period for giving. The stock market has provided its fair share of giving to […]

    • Markets Fly as Media Noise Goes By
      by sidoxia on 1st November 2017 at 11:57 pm

      This article is an excerpt from a previously released Sidoxia Capital Management complimentary newsletter (November 1, 2017). Subscribe on the right side of the page for the complete text. That loud pitched noise is not a frightening scream from Halloween, but rather what you are likely hearing is the deafening noise coming from Washington D.C […]

    • The September to Remember
      by sidoxia on 2nd October 2017 at 8:08 pm

      This article is an excerpt from a previously released Sidoxia Capital Management complimentary newsletter (October 2, 2017). Subscribe on the right side of the page for the complete text. Given the volume of recent memorable events, it appears September will become a month to remember. Not only did we witness horrific natural disasters in Texas, […]

    • Hurricane & Political Surprises as Dow Rises
      by sidoxia on 1st September 2017 at 8:59 pm

      This article is an excerpt from a previously released Sidoxia Capital Management complimentary newsletter (September 1, 2017). Subscribe on the right side of the page for the complete text. It was a tumultuous month politically, economically, and meteorologically. The devastating destruction left in the wake of Hurricane Harvey’s 130 mile per hour winds and 50+ […]

    • The Summer Heats Up
      by sidoxia on 1st August 2017 at 7:16 pm

      This article is an excerpt from a previously released Sidoxia Capital Management complimentary newsletter (August 1, 2017). Subscribe on the right side of the page for the complete text. The temperature in the stock market heated up again this month. Like a hot day at the beach, the Dow Jones Industrial Average stock index burned […]


    The Investor's Field Guide A Journey Through the Stock Market Jungle


    • 9 Long-term Setups To Consider – POWI, PLXS, SPXC, TTEK, MEOH
      by Ivanhoff on 22nd November 2017 at 5:28 pm

      I haven’t done due diligence on any of those names.  The only things they have in common is a constructive weekly chart and a decent risk/reward setup. They are within 10% of their 52-week highs and they have outperformed the S&P 500 in the past six months. […]

    • Why and how buying pullbacks in momentum stocks work?
      by Ivanhoff on 21st November 2017 at 6:45 pm

      Most market edges come and go and don’t last long. One of the few market edges that have survived the test of time is momentum. The momentum phenomenon has been tested on multiple asset classes in various geographic markets. Hundreds of white papers have been written on it. They all conclude the same thing – … Continue reading "Why and how buying pullbacks in momentum stocks work?" […]

    • Is Using Incomplete Weekly Charts A Chart Crime?
      by Ivanhoff on 18th November 2017 at 3:26 pm

      Some technical purists claim it is wrong to look at a weekly chart before the week has been completed. For example, you should not be looking at weekly charts on a Tuesday and make your decision based on them because the week isn’t over yet. I understand that perspective but I don’t agree with it. … Continue reading "Is Using Incomplete Weekly Charts A Chart Crime?" […]

    • Are All Analysts Useless?
      by Ivanhoff on 30th October 2017 at 4:19 pm

      “You don’t need analysts in a bull market, and you don’t want them in a bear market.” – Gerald Loeb People like to mock sell-side analysts and point out how little value they add. Their calls are often too late, biased, and sometimes – contrarian signs. Macy’s shares have fallen 72% since the summer of … Continue reading "Are All Analysts Useless?" […]

    • The Best Performing ETFs Year-To-Date
      by Ivanhoff on 6th October 2017 at 2:21 pm

      Contrary to the popular opinion, the best performing ETF year-to-date is not the inverse short-term VIX ETN, XIV. A brief glance at the best performing ETFs so far this year doesn’t only tell you what has been working – in this case, biotech, China, emerging markets, and semiconductors. It also gives you a hint of … Continue reading "The Best Performing ETFs Year-To-Date" […]


    Blog | Jason Zweig A safe haven for investors by Jason Zweig of The Wall Street Journal.


    Joe Fahmy The Next Big Move

    • Three Growth Stocks For 2018
      by jfahmy on 11th December 2017 at 1:09 am

      As an active money manager, I pride myself in finding stocks that I feel can outperform the market and in turn help me outperform for clients. The following are three growth stocks from three different market caps that have strong potential in 2018. 1) LARGE CAP IDEA: Amazon (Symbol: AMZN, current price $1162) – Of [...] The post Three Growth Stocks For 2018 appeared first on Joe Fahmy. […]

    • WEEKEND VIDEO: Index Review and More 12/9/17
      by jfahmy on 10th December 2017 at 1:23 am

      The purpose of this video is to share some of my experiences from 20 years of trading, provide education and market commentary. If you have any questions, you can email me directly at jfahmy@zorcapital.com. Thank you for watching and good luck trading! Charts are provided by MarketSmith. To learn more or for a trial, click [...] The post WEEKEND VIDEO: Index Review and More 12/9/17 appeared first on Joe Fahmy. […]

    • WEEKEND VIDEO: When Do You Sell?
      by jfahmy on 3rd December 2017 at 3:13 am

      The purpose of this video is to share some of my experiences from 20 years of trading, provide education and market commentary. If you have any questions, you can email me directly at jfahmy@zorcapital.com. Thank you for watching and good luck trading! Charts are provided by MarketSmith. To learn more or for a trial, click [...] The post WEEKEND VIDEO: When Do You Sell? appeared first on Joe Fahmy. […]

    • VIDEO: Yahoo Finance Final Round Show 11/28/17
      by jfahmy on 1st December 2017 at 4:29 am

      Here is the video clip from my appearance on Yahoo Finance's Final Round show on 11/28/17. I joined host Jen Rogers to discuss the factors that could keep this Bull Market moving higher. I can be reached at: jfahmy@zorcapital.com The post VIDEO: Yahoo Finance Final Round Show 11/28/17 appeared first on Joe Fahmy. […]

    • Real Vision Interview – September 2016
      by jfahmy on 22nd November 2017 at 1:50 am

      The following Real Vision interview was filmed on September 28, 2016, before the Presidential election. Prior to posting it here, it was only available through Real Vision's paid subscription site. They allowed me to post it because of its accuracy and they invited me back for another interview soon. I am grateful that many of [...] The post Real Vision Interview – September 2016 appeared first on Joe Fahmy. […]


    QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH AND TRADING The latest theories, models and investment strategies in quantitative research and trading

    • Trading Bitcoin
      by Jonathan on 8th December 2017 at 1:09 pm

      At Systematic Strategies we have developed a brilliant, new investment strategy.  We call it buying Bitcoin.  It works like this:  you take some of your hard-earned fiat and use it to buy Bitcoin.  Then, a week or two later, you do the same thing all over again.   So far the strategy is up around 400% YTD. ... The post Trading Bitcoin appeared first on QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH AND TRADING. […]

    • Protected: Systematic Strategies Fund – Nov 2017
      by Jonathan on 3rd December 2017 at 2:26 pm

      There is no excerpt because this is a protected post. The post Protected: Systematic Strategies Fund – Nov 2017 appeared first on QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH AND TRADING. […]

    • Protected: Systematic Strategies Fund – Oct 2017
      by Jonathan on 6th November 2017 at 9:33 am

      There is no excerpt because this is a protected post. The post Protected: Systematic Strategies Fund – Oct 2017 appeared first on QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH AND TRADING. […]

    • Systematic Futures Trading
      by Jonathan on 16th October 2017 at 3:34 pm

      In its proprietary trading, Systematic Strategies primary focus in on equity and volatility strategies, both low and high frequency. In futures, the emphasis is on high frequency trading, although we also run one or two lower frequency strategies that have higher capacity, such as the Futures WealthBuilder. The version of WealthBuilder running on the Collective... The post Systematic Futures Trading appeared first on QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH AND TRADING. […]

    • Protected: Systematic Strategies Fund – Sept 2017
      by Jonathan on 2nd October 2017 at 6:22 pm

      There is no excerpt because this is a protected post. The post Protected: Systematic Strategies Fund – Sept 2017 appeared first on QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH AND TRADING. […]


    Marginal REVOLUTION Small Steps Toward A Much Better World

    • Monday assorted links
      by Tyler Cowen on 11th December 2017 at 7:46 pm

      1. Another Alpha Zero masterpiece, this video is nine minutes long. 2. Is serialism one of the hot genres of 2017? 3. Was Goethe basically a pain? 4. Could the Mayans predict meteor showers? 5. Are Bitcoin options what we really need?  And, how Bitcoin futures are going. The post Monday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. […]

    • Are corporate jets a waste of money?
      by Tyler Cowen on 11th December 2017 at 4:14 pm

      Almost certainly not: While shareholders have strong incentives to limit value-destroying perquisite consumption, it is challenging to identify such perquisites. Many corporate assets that enable forms of perquisite consumption also provide operational benefits. Corporate jets represent a potent example. We find business-related flights increase firm performance. Our results also highlight the channels through which jet […] The post Are corporate jets a waste of money? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. […]

    • Occupational licensing is a barrier to interstate migration
      by Tyler Cowen on 11th December 2017 at 2:35 pm

      …we find that the between-state migration rate for individuals in occupations with state-specific licensing exam requirements is 36 percent lower relative to members of other occupations. Members of licensed occupations with national licensing exams show no evidence of limited interstate migration. That is from Janna E. Johnson and Morris E. Kleiner in the NBER working […] The post Occupational licensing is a barrier to interstate migration appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. […]

    • New Zealand fact of the day
      by Tyler Cowen on 11th December 2017 at 7:37 am

      …a recent report by Yale University concluded the country is suffering the highest rate of homelessness in the developed world with 40,000 people, nearly 1 per cent of the population, living on the streets or in emergency housing or substandard shelters. …“The big change in homelessness is the number of working families struggling to find […] The post New Zealand fact of the day appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. […]

    • What is up with the new Brexit deal?
      by Tyler Cowen on 11th December 2017 at 5:28 am

      Most of the Tories are happy they found a semi-workable version of the deal.  They pay a big divorce bill to the EU, have a long transition period, opt for “regulatory standardization with the EU” for the whole UK, as enforced by the need to avoid a hard border in Ireland, and over the longer […] The post What is up with the new Brexit deal? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. […]


    Behavioral Macro Mark Dow’s microblog, analyzing global macroeconomic and market issues, often through the prism of our cognitive shortcomings

    • Emerging Market Currencies: Size it Right, Sit Tight
      on 4th September 2017 at 3:58 pm

      We are probably still in the sweet spot for the emerging market cycle. This doesn’t exempt us from the risk of corrections. It doesn’t eliminate geopolitical flare ups, trade war rhetoric, or the macro scare du jour. And it doesn’t make September/October calendar effects any less scary. But it does mean if you are an investor the wise choice is to stay in, stay the course.(Pro memoria: the dominant error in professional investing is over-forecasting corrections and then chasing bull markets from a position of weakness.)I’ve given the reasoning for this view here, here, and here. And my broader views on central banks and currency markets are laid out here. Basically, it all boils down to:1.       At this point in the global risk cycle the US looks mature and investors go abroad2.       The Fed is closer to its terminal policy rate than expected; other CBs are at the front end of their normalization processes3.       Investors desperately need yield, and emerging market currencies have it4.       Country differentiation is less important than asset allocation  And demand is strong. I continue to hear of managers wanting to get into the space and/or increase their allocation, while, as PIMCO points out, local markets deepen.Technically, the picture is strong. USDTRY and USDCLP have already broken down. It is likely that currency pairs like USDMXN, USDBRL and USDINR are to follow. Here are the charts:Turkish LiraChilean PesoMexican PesoBrazilian RealIndian Ru […]

    • Sorry for Being the Bearer of Good News
      on 8th August 2017 at 3:27 pm

      I have a childhood friend who loves to rant and complain so much that I jokingly preface giving him good news with an apology. The market feels very much like this right now. The overwhelming sentiment is “cautious”, “we are due”, “valuations are unsustainably high”.But the truth is our collective memory of the GFC has made sentiment a countercyclical stabilizer, stretching out both the financial risk cycle and the economic cycle. Every time we get a little confident or frothy, the scolds come out and remind us of our ‘irresponsibility’ and we all slow our roll for a little while and digest gains. When you think the rest of the world is now going thru the same, drawn out, semi-deleveraging lower-for-longer recovery we experienced–which keeps a damper on our speed limit as well–begrudging good news could go on for a long, long tim […]

    • Credit Spreads and Sticker Shock
      on 31st July 2017 at 3:48 pm

      Credit managers have been suffering for years now. Yeah, I know that sounds strange given the run credit markets have had. But the truth is they’ve been suffering from sticker shock since 2011. “But what can I buy at these levels?” has been their constant refrain. Many have been underperforming their benchmarks and bogeys for years.How did they fall into this trap? Start with the chart of the BBB spread over the last 15 years. Credit managers have anchored on spread levels and yields from the strong phase of the last risk cycle, 2004-2007. Spreads then were 110-130bps. Today they are 138bps. Five-year BBB yields then were 5-6%, whereas today they are 3-3.5%. Credit managers have been forced into chasing yields lower and lower for the last 5 years.What they’ve been overlooking is the risk free rate. The 5 year risk free rate averaged around 4% from 2004-2007, and now we are at 1.8%. If you look at how much risk-free yield (opportunity cost) you are giving up to collect extra spread, it becomes obvious that a spread of 138bps is far, far cheaper when the risk free rate is at 1.8% than when it is 4%. Spread-to-spread comparisons just don’t make sense. Yet that’s what we keep hearing. It’s kind of shocking, really, how many professional managers–especially those with a lot of experience, paradoxically–have been blinded to this simple but powerful consideration.The TL;DR: Credit markets aren’t as rich as you might have thought, and in any event, the credit cycle is likely to end around the time the economic cycle in the US turns, irrespective of valuations. […]

    • Mexican Peso, Brazilian Real, and the EM risk Cycle
      on 31st July 2017 at 12:24 pm

      The forward points on BRL and MXN show, approximately, a 6% breakeven depreciation over the next 12 months. Or, in other word, 6% carry. If you believe emerging markets are in the early phases of the same kind of slow, muddle-through recovery we have seen in the US and increasingly Europe, it is hard to imagine spot underperforming the forwards as a longer-term investment proposition. This is the phase of the global risk cycle where the desire for returns is very high but the forward-looking scope for returns in the US market appears limited.It also looks to me as though there is still tons of scope for further “normalization” from the unwind of the EM bear market. NB: This blog is currently unlocked. It will convert to locked, accessible to @BehavioralMacro subscribers through PremoSocial, in the near future. […]

    • Quick Thought on Oil Stocks
      on 31st July 2017 at 12:15 pm

      Up until recently oil stocks have been about playing/gaming some type of normalization from the 2014-15 crash. Mostly, repeated attempts at knife catching. Over this past month or two it seems investors are finally looking a little beyond this and starting to price in the secular challenges facing global oil supply & demand. 1.       Electric car dominance is no longer a question of “if”.2.       The fuel intensity of global growth continues to decline, as emerging economies catch up with the well-established trends in the advanced ones.3.       Extraction technologies have become vastly more productive and less expansive. From an investment standpoint, this is a headwind—whether the price of oil is rising or not. If the price of oil were to rise, no doubt oil stocks would also, just probably with a lower beta to it. It makes the sector a much less attractive risk-reward proposition, despite how beaten up it has been. NB: This blog is currently unlocked. It will convert to locked, accessible to @BehavioralMacro subscribers through PremoSocial, in the near future.&nbs […]


    market folly Tracking top hedge funds since 2008

    • Holiday Gift Ideas For Investors 2017
      by marketfolly@gmail.com (Market Folly) on 11th December 2017 at 7:52 pm

      Each year we highlight some gifts for investors and financial professionals.  Besides the typical money and booze, here's some other ideas for clients, partners, employees or even yourself. Recommended BooksMargin of Safety - A physical copy of Seth Klarman's book is sure to impress.  They're rare since the book hasn't been in print for yearsPrinciples - The new book from Bridgewater's Ray Dalio Black Edge: Inside Information, Dirty Money and the Quest to Bring Down the Most Wanted Man on Wall Street: Financial thriller about Steve Cohen / SAC CapitalAgainst the Gods: A book about understanding risk and probability by Peter Bernstein Algorithms To Live By: The Computer Science of Human Decisions - Book by Brian Christian and Tom GriffithsThe Industries of the Future - Book by Alec Ross on artificial intelligence, robotics, cybersecurity, commercialization of genomics and much moreTribe of Mentors - Tim Ferriss' collection of advice from hundreds of experts in their fieldsKindle Unlimited - Get unlimited ebooks and audiobooks at Amazon Publications33% discount on Hedge Fund Wisdom - Save on our newsletter that summarizes 13F filings50% off The Wall Street Journal - Sale ends soon so take advantageThe Economist - Always a good optionTechBose QuietComfort Wireless Headphones - Great for flights or in the office.  Listen to earnings calls, audio books, or the latest Katy Perry album, whatever floats your boat Amazon Kindle Paperwhite - On sale.  Great for reading SEC filings and books on the go, even in bright sunlight Amazon Echo - Also on sale.  New version of the famous Alexa assistantTVBillions (Season 2) - The first major television show about a hedge fund manager, starring Paul Giamatti and Damian Lewis.  Catch up before Season 3 starts or get someone else hooked on the seriesMiscellaneousPatagonia Fleece Vest - To fully blend in with hedge fund brosWagyu Beef - Or really any type of high quality meat from Snake River FarmsHedge Funds For Dummies - Give it to someone underperforming this yearHappy Holidays! […]

    • Hedge Fund Links ~ 12/8/17
      by marketfolly@gmail.com (Market Folly) on 8th December 2017 at 5:20 pm

      Inside Elliott Management: how Paul Singer's hedge fund always wins [Fortune]On the lack of women in the hedge fund industry [Bloomberg]Ratan Capital founder and an ex-Brahman employee shared confidential info [SEC]Neil Woodford thinks we're in a bubble [Woodford]Tudor to shutter discretionary macro fund in restructuring [Bloomberg] Hutchin Hill shutting down [Bloomberg]Leon Cooperman loves Navient, but thinks it'd be better off dead [Bloomberg]The fastest way to wreck your hedge fund career [Institutional Investor […]

    • Selvan Masil Long Criteo, Short Cineworld: Sohn London Conference
      by marketfolly@gmail.com (Market Folly) on 4th December 2017 at 6:34 pm

      We're posting up notes from the Sohn London conference 2017.  Next up is Selvan Masil of Westray Capital Management who pitched a long of Criteo (NAS:CRTO) and a short of Cineworld (LON:CINE).Selvan Masil's Sohn London PresentationLong Criteo (NAS:CRTO) Criteo is a French technology company with a market cap of $2.1bn that is listed on the Nasdaq.What does Criteo do? It helps retailers to covert online shoppers using browsing behaviour to deliver targeted advertising. It does this by being directly integrated into the advertiser’s website. Criteo learns our preferences as we browse. More than two-thirds of its revenue is generated on mobile devices. It can link people’s identities across devices and it can send advertising to mobile, laptop, via Facebook as well as in-app.What makes Criteo a good investment? It has a very strong position in a fast-growing market. Digital’s share of the advertising budget is projected to grow from 29% in 2015 to 43% in 2020. The fastest growing segment in digital advertising is programmatic. This segment, where Criteo operates, is growing at 25% CAGR 2015-2020.It is the largest independent player in the programmatic space, third overall behind Facebook and Google. It’s 5x the size of the next independent competitor. Having an independent player is important for all sides. Many e-commerce retailers and web publishers don’t want to give Google and Facebook full access to their sensitive customer data. Facebook and Google value automated and scalable solutions and prefer to deal directly with advertisers.Criteo has recently started integrating offline CRM data by using data from loyalty cards, credit cards and other unique indentifiers. That level of integration between off-line and on-line shopping is the holy grail for most retailers and will increase the value of Criteo’s database.Every time internet users browse a website of one of its clients, Criteo tracks the entire purchasing and browsing activity regardless of how the user ended up on that website. Critieo sees more than twice the number of transactions than Amazon. In addition, it tracked users browsing and purchasing activity on 4bn products – more than each of Amazon, Alibaba and Ebay. This unparalleled scale should allow Criteo to send the right ads to the right person at the right time. It creates self-reinforcing network effects. The more clients you have the more data you collect. The more data you have the better the performance of your apps. That in turn helps you attract more clients and generate more data.The value of the data can be seen in the click-through rates – the proportion of ads that generate a click - that are 4x higher than the industry average. They are second to Facebook on click-through and only just.Criteo is virtually alone in the industry in charging advertisers based on post click sales. Most digital advertising companies still charge a fee every time the ad is displayed regardless of whether the consumer interreacts with it or not. As a result, many clients have given Criteo an unlimited budget as they only pay for advertising when they make a sale. More than 75% of Criteo’s revenues come from such clients. On average it generates 18x return on investment for clients.Westray’s interviews with clients, competitors and publishers find that Criteo is consistently ranked best for performance, superior to even Google.Criteo’s stock has de-rated recently on fears that a new version of Apple’s Safari browser will contain something called Intelligent Tracking Prevention that may disrupt digital advertising players. Masil believes that Criteo has the tech knowhow to be able to deal with this.The company is undervalued on nearly all metrics. It will continue to grow revenue at a CAGR of 20% between 2016 and 2020 with even higher growth rates for EBITDA. Criteo is unusual among tech companies in that it is highly cash generative. At the end of 2017 the company will have 17-18% of its market cap in cash.Short Cineworld (LON: CINE)Cineworld is a cinema operator. Last week Cineworld announced its intentions to buy Regal, the second largest cinema operator in the US. The shares sold off 20%. Masil said that was not part of their original thesis but that the potential purchase of Regal reinforces their negative stance.Cineworld is one of Europe’s largest operators with 226 cinemas and 2100 screens. It generates 55% of its EBITDA in the UK and Ireland. Most of the rest comes from eastern European countries. Two-thirds of revenue comes from ticket sales and one-third from selling food and drink.-    The UK cinema market is mature and ex-growth.-    The company has been expanding aggressively in the UK which is a flawed strategy.-    Younger people go to the cinema less and instead consume content online.-    It will be hard to put ticket prices up further. They have already been put up well ahead of inflation.-    Cineworld is suffering a downturn in admissions per screen. A 5% decline in admissions per screen leads to a 15% decline in EBITDA-    The structural pressure on the cinema industry is intensifying.-    The period in which cinemas can show new films exclusively without them being shown online is reducing.-    Amazon and Netflix are making their own content and growing their customer base rapidly-    The performance of Cineworld shares has outperformed the sector for no good reason.-    Cineworld trades at a forward P/E 18x 2018. Capex is high as the cinemas require constant refurbishing.Be sure to check out the rest of the presentations from Sohn London 2017. […]

    • Adrian Croxson Long Pirelli: Sohn London Conference
      by marketfolly@gmail.com (Market Folly) on 4th December 2017 at 6:33 pm

      We're posting up notes from the Sohn London conference 2017.  Next up is Adrian Croxson of Oz Management who pitched a long of Pirelli (BIT:PIRC).Adrian Croxson's Sohn London PresentationPirelli was IPOed two months ago. It used to be a sprawling conglomerate involved in real estate, cable and football clubs but today it’s a pure play premium tire company. Croxson particularly likes Pirelli because the end demand is predictable. Why is the tire market predictable?-    There are 1.2bn cars in the world which need 1bn replacement tires every year. Car owners must buy new tyres or face a fine from the police or a potential accident.-    The total number of cars is growing with about 500m new tyre required each year.-    The global tyre market consistently grows at about 3% per year.-    If there is an acceleration of new car sales, there will be an acceleration of replacement tyre sales in 3 to 4 years.-    The tyre companies make most of their money from replacement tyres not from suppling tyres for new cars. They sell the original tyres at a reduced rate to car manufacturers in the hope of getting the replacement tyre sales later.-    Demand growth has been steady for the last 16 years with barely a drop in the credit crunch.-    EVs and autonomous cars will still require tires.The premium tyre market is a small subsection of the tyre market. Premium is defined as high performance tyres of over 18 Inches. It’s a 200m unit market in a total tire market of 1.2bn a year, about 15% of the overall market.There are only six scale players who compete in the premium market: Pirelli, Nokian, Michelin, Continental, Goodyear and Bridgestone. Their positions are protected by large R&D budgets which help them to stay ahead on grip, safety and efficiency.The global premium market is growing at around 9% per annum. Customers want larger cars, particularly more luxurious SUVs. This trend will continue. VW is trying to go from 15% SUVs to 40% in the next 5 years. As the rich become richer they want more expensive vehicles. In China in 2006 50,000 luxury cars were sold and today that has reached 2.5m. The Chinese market is now the largest car market in the world. The penetration of luxury tyres is still only about half of what it is in the west.Pirelli can grow their business at 13% per year. In addition, Pirelli has been able to hold prices above its peer group for the last 5 years.Pirelli does have a leveraged balance sheet at around 3.5x net debt to EBITDA. The stability of the cash flows should see it de-lever to around 2x by 2020.Benchmarked against the peer group, the stock could trade up by 60%. As the only pure play premium tyre manufacturer, Pirelli is a higher-quality asset and should command a higher multiple than the peer group.Be sure to check out the rest of the presentations from Sohn London 2017. […]

    • Christian Vogel-Claussen Long United Internet: Sohn London Conference
      by marketfolly@gmail.com (Market Folly) on 4th December 2017 at 6:25 pm

      We're posting up notes from the Sohn London conference 2017.  Next up is Christian Vogel-Claussen of Alanda Capital Management who pitched long United Internet (ETR:UTDI).Christian Vogel-Claussen's Sohn London PresentationAt Alanda half of the investment team are traditional analysts and the other half are in-house programmers. The programmers write data scripts to track publicly available information on the companies. They scrape public data and measure performance indicators that companies do not report.Long: United Internet (ETR:UTDI)United Internet is a Mobile Virtual Network Operator; a broadband reseller for internet access; it is also involved in web hosting, selling webpages and web domains.It was founded by Ralph Dommermuth when he was 24. United went public in 1998. Dommermuth is still the CEO of the business, owning 40%.In the last six months, United has been involved in two interesting deals. They bought a 72% stake in Drillisch, another player in the mobile market, and they sold a minority stake in their web hosting business to Warburg Pincus.The Drillisch acquisition will disrupt the German telco landscape. The German market is divided between 3 mobile operators: Telefonica Deutschland (TD) which operates under the brand 02 is the largest player with 45m subscribers; T Mobile; Vodaphone.In 2014, O2 merged with EPlus to form the largest mobile operator. The merger was only given the go-ahead on the grounds that TD would sell 30% of its capacity. The auction was won by Drillisch. Now that United own 101 and Drillisch - the two most aggressive players – they no longer compete against each other. Instead they are both competing for TD’s market share. In addition, 101 can offer a bundle of mobile and broadband to the entire customer base of Drillisch.Alanda’s data scrapers have data showing that the churn rate of 101 and Drillisch is now 29% lower than the market average. Even though 101 is the smallest operator it is the most popular destination with churners. They are gaining twice as many new subscribers as TD. This means that the newly merged 101 is gaining market share rapidly - 39% of the churners are leaving TD to go to 101. Vogel-Claussen noted that in effect he was giving the audience a short idea: Telefonica Deutschland. TD have not been able to compete on price, 101 are 25% cheaper.In the web hosting business, United has sold a one-third stake to Warburg Pincus and they are working together in partnership. They now have the fire power to roll-up the fragmented web hosting business in Europe through acquisitions. United has recently announced the acquisition of Strato, the German N0.2 in web hosting.United has announced that in the next 18 months it will spin-off its web hosting unit. Web hosters in the US usually sell for 14x EBITDA.United trades at 10x forward EBITDA. Its revenue growth rate is double digit. Expect a FCF CAGR of 17% over the next few years. Investor’s interests are fully aligned with the 40% owner’s.Be sure to check out the rest of the presentations from Sohn London 2017. […]


    Meb Faber Research – Stock Market and Investing Blog Stock Market and Investing Blog of Meb Faber

    • Robo Allocator Update
      by Meb Faber on 11th December 2017 at 7:58 pm

      Year end summary of the whole robo and cyborg space….and much like everywhere else in the asset management industry, Vanguard is dominating and has likely passed $100B in their advisory product…if there are any errors please email me and I’ll update. Click on the table to enlarge…   The post Robo Allocator Update appeared first on Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog. […]

    • Tweets of the Week
      by Meb Faber on 7th December 2017 at 8:36 pm

      [View the story “Tweets of the Week” on Storify] The post Tweets of the Week appeared first on Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog. […]

    • Episode #84: Howard Lindzon, “I Think There’s So Many Ways the Markets are Rigged That I Think It’s Best to Just Follow Along the Trends”
      by Meb Faber on 6th December 2017 at 9:44 pm

      Episode #84: “I Think There’s So Many Ways the Markets are Rigged That I Think It’s Best to Just Follow Along the Trends”       Guest: Howard Lindzon. Howard focuses on the innovation in personal finance and do-it-yourself investing. He makes early stage investments through Social Leverage. His current start-up is called StockTwits and he is a … Continued The post Episode #84: Howard Lindzon, “I Think There’s So Many Ways the Markets are Rigged That I Think It’s Best to Just Follow Along the Trends” appeared first on Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog. […]

    • Episode #83: Randy Swan, “What Do You Do When Things Are Fundamentally Overvalued, But You Want to Remain Invested in the Market?”
      by Meb Faber on 29th November 2017 at 6:00 pm

      Episode #83: “What Do You Do When Things Are Fundamentally Overvalued, But You Want to Remain Invested in the Market?”      Guest: Randy Swan. Randy is the founder, CEO and Lead Portfolio Manager of Swan Global Investments and the creator of the proprietary Defined Risk Strategy (Swan DRS). In 1997, recognizing the limitations of Modern Portfolio Theory and … Continued The post Episode #83: Randy Swan, “What Do You Do When Things Are Fundamentally Overvalued, But You Want to Remain Invested in the Market?” appeared first on Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog. […]

    • Tweets of the Week
      by Meb Faber on 29th November 2017 at 2:49 am

      [View the story “Tweets of the Week” on Storify] The post Tweets of the Week appeared first on Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog. […]



      Monevator Make more money, invest profitably, retire early


      Blog – PensionPartners.com The ATAC Rotation Manager

      • Stop Searching for the Holy Grail
        by Charlie Bilello on 4th December 2017 at 11:03 pm

        In a recent post, I came to the following conclusion: “the notion that simply ‘following the trend’ in Gold will lead to vast riches is a false one.” I made this statement after analyzing a simple trend following system (going back to 1975), using the 200-day moving average as a signal of when to get […]

      • Junk Bond Myths
        by Charlie Bilello on 4th December 2017 at 4:34 pm

        What are high yield bonds? I don’t mean the textbook definition (corporate bonds with a credit rating below BBB), but how they actually behave in terms of risk and return. In attempting to answer this question, let’s address some common myths surrounding the asset class affectionately known as “junk bonds.” Myth #1: High Yield Bonds […]

      • Are Trend Following and Gold a Perfect Match?
        by Charlie Bilello on 25th November 2017 at 3:35 pm

        Market participants are often heard saying things like “you can’t trade Gold on fundamentals.” With no cash flows to discount, Gold is a different animal than stocks or bonds. It is said to swing higher and lower due to changes in investor sentiment alone. Many a trader will advise you to simply follow the trend: […]

      • The Uncertainty Principle in Markets
        by Charlie Bilello on 22nd November 2017 at 1:37 pm

        As an investor, what do you prefer: certainty or uncertainty? Certainty, of course. We all do. When things seem certain, the future looks bright and we embrace risk taking. When things seem uncertain, it’s hard to imagine things ever getting better, and we shun risk at all costs. But is there really such a thing […]

      • Delivering Negative Alpha
        by Charlie Bilello on 18th November 2017 at 4:28 pm

        “No matter how you “slice-and-dice the data,” hedge funds are struggling to meet their promise to clients to consistently produce high returns with low correlation to markets. It’s kind of: ‘I promise you a Rolls Royce and I give you a Honda.'” – Matt Granade, Chief Market Intelligence Officer, Point72 Asset Management There are more Hedge […]


      Price Action Lab Blog Premium Market Analysis

      • All Premium Content 30% Off
        by Price Action Lab on 11th December 2017 at 4:52 pm

        Offer expires Friday, December 15, 2017 at 5:00 PM EST: All premium content 30% off. Price Action Lab Premium Content 30% off Use coupon DC30 for 30% off. Insert coupon in designated field of registration form and click Apply. Online … Continue reading →All Premium Content 30% Off was originally published on Price Action Lab Blog […]

      • This is How the Alpha is Extracted
        by Price Action Lab on 11th December 2017 at 11:23 am

        Engineering of features with economic value, also known as attributes, predictors or alpha factors, is the first step in the extraction of market alpha. The example in this article shows proper classification of DJIA stocks in the weekly timeframe has … Continue reading →This is How the Alpha is Extracted was originally published on Price Action Lab Blog […]

      • Weekly Market Analysis – December 11, 2017 [Premium Articles]
        by Price Action Lab on 10th December 2017 at 2:21 pm

        The weekly premium analysis includes a market recap with commentary, ETF analysis, breadth indicators and weekly mean-reversion signals and directional probabilities of Dow 30 stocks. New: The weekly premium reports now include BTC and ETH analysis based on our unique indicators. … Continue reading →Weekly Market Analysis – December 11, 2017 [Premium Articles] was originally published on Price Action Lab Blog […]

      • Bitcoin Exponential Chart Illusion [Premium Articles]
        by Price Action Lab on 9th December 2017 at 11:41 am

        The bitcoin chart shows an exponential rise and that may cause certain illusions. For access to premium content, you must be a subscriber. Please login if you are already a subscriber or subscribe to continue reading...Bitcoin Exponential Chart Illusion [Premium Articles] was originally published on Price Action Lab Blog […]

      • Looking For Sales Agents
        by Price Action Lab on 8th December 2017 at 3:26 pm

        We are looking for sales agents with contacts in quantitative hedge funds to market our DLPAL LS software and provide on-site demos. We offer 50% commission. The duties of the sale agent include arranging for meetings and providing demos of … Continue reading →Looking For Sales Agents was originally published on Price Action Lab Blog […]


      Quantifiable Edges » Blog Assessing Market Action With Indicators & History

      • The Most Wonderful Week Of The Year!!!!
        by Rob Hanna on 11th December 2017 at 1:54 pm

        Over several time horizons op-ex week in December has been the most bullish week of the year for the SPX. The positive seasonality actually has persisted for up to 3 weeks. I’ve shown the study below in the blog many times since 2008. It looks back to 1984, which was the first year that SPX […]

      • Why The SPX Reversal May Be A Positive For The Bulls
        by Rob Hanna on 5th December 2017 at 1:21 pm

        Before spending much Monday selling off, the SPX managed to make a new intraday all-time high. The new high followed by a poor and downward close triggered the study below, from the Quantifinder. Results are all updated. Results here seem to suggest an upside edge over the next 1-2 weeks. Though the reversal may have […]

      • When NDX Drops Big On A Day SPX Posts An Intraday High
        by Rob Hanna on 30th November 2017 at 1:14 pm

        It was interesting that the new intraday high Wednesday for SPX came on a day when NDX had its worst day since August. The study below looks at other instances of a 50-day high for SPX and the biggest drop in 50-days for NDX. Results are fairly impressive, and suggest a bullish edge based on […]

      • SPY’s 2-Day Pattern Suggesting A Bullish Tendency For Tuesday
        by Rob Hanna on 28th November 2017 at 1:13 pm

        SPY gapped up and closed lower Monday after leaving an unfilled up gap on Friday. This triggered the study below that examined similar price action in SPY with regards to how it gapped and finished. The numbers here all look solidly bullish. This suggests a possible upside edge for Tuesday based on SPY’s pattern of […]

      • October Opex Week Historically Bullish
        by Rob Hanna on 16th October 2017 at 4:24 am

        Option expiration week is often a pretty good week for the market. October is one of those months where it has been especially good over the years. This can be seen in the study below. I decided to exclude 2008 because action that week was such an incredible outlier that it greatly skewed all the […]


      • Prediction Time!
        by Roger Nusbaum on 6th December 2017 at 6:29 pm

        My latest post for Alpha Baskets is up and includes the following; The narrowing leadership and breadth indicators have been negative for quite a while as just a handful of stocks have done much of the lifting of the index this year. This is unquestionably a negative in my opinion but the predictive value for […]

      • Take the under on this time being different
        by Roger Nusbaum on 4th December 2017 at 5:55 pm

        The weekly Market Update is posted at Alpha Baskets and includes the following; The Chicago Mercantile Exchange will start trading bitcoin futures on December 18th. Aside from making a two way market more accessible, many believe it will pave the way for exchange traded funds to start trading, the idea being that ETFs would create […]

      • TheMaven Weekly Roundup
        by Roger Nusbaum on 30th November 2017 at 3:20 pm

        Earlier this week announced my new blogging gig with TheMaven.net. With one week under my belt I wanted to give a recap of what I wrote and invite you to check it out and hope you’ll consider registering as a user (it’s free!) My first post is a welcome letter that summarizes the topics I […]

      • Big News!
        by Roger Nusbaum on 29th November 2017 at 6:22 pm

        My latest post for Alpha Baskets is posted and includes the following; I’ve disclosed many times that the portfolio I manage for clients is mostly a mix of individual issues and narrower ETFs. If you do anything remotely similar, how have you done this year? How have each of your holdings done? How has the […]

      • Bitcoin, To Infinity & Beyond!
        by Roger Nusbaum on 27th November 2017 at 4:46 pm

        The weekly Market Update is posted and includes the following; A couple of days ago, Bespoke reported that the tech sector had grown to 24.7% of the S&P 500. Sector weightings can be very constructive for warning of trouble ahead. In 2000 of course tech grew to more than 30% of the index which preceded […]


      the research puzzle a blog by tom brakke

      • busy dying
        by tom brakke on 27th November 2017 at 11:47 pm

        Active management organizations face a new landscape. To meet the needs of clients going forward, they need to evaluate and redesign their organizations, perhaps in dramatic ways. […]

      • behind the numbers
        by tom brakke on 12th September 2017 at 5:01 pm

        Assessing the people in an investment firm is key to understanding its capabilities. But can we get more than a superficial look at the interpersonal dynamics that are critical to its success over time? […]

      • maps of the world
        by tom brakke on 16th August 2017 at 8:39 pm

        Investment organizations are facing a quickening pace of change, but using old constructs to analyze the environment and to make strategic decisions. New perspectives are needed. […]

      • into the workshop
        by tom brakke on 6th July 2017 at 5:09 pm

        Getting away from the normal routine is critical if you are to think about the challenges of the future. Four days with interesting investment people from around the world does the trick. […]

      • precision farming
        by tom brakke on 1st June 2017 at 6:03 pm

        There has been a restoration of faith in risk management and the modeling of market behavior since the financial crisis. Will those methods serve us well when the weather changes? […]


      RiskReversal RiskReversal with Dan Nathan

      • IBB: Kicked in the Ash
        by Dan on 11th December 2017 at 7:51 pm

        This week in Atlanta the American Society of Hematology is holding their annual conference on blood diseases where we are already seeing some massive moves in the stocks of companies reporting data from trials: Options activity in ... […]

      • CELG Update – Celgene Therapy
        by CC on 11th December 2017 at 7:40 pm

        Back on October 30th we took a look at beaten up biotech Celgene (CELG) and detailed a defined risk call calendar positioning for a small bounce into year end, followed by the potential breakout/gap fill ... […]

      • Costco (COST) Conscious
        by Dan on 8th December 2017 at 7:41 pm

        It has been a tale of two cities for retail stocks in 2017… you know the drill, Amazon.com (AMZN) was killing everyone but home improvement behemoth The Home Depot (HD) because of their perceived moat, and ... […]

      • Squaring the Bitcoin Circle (SQ)
        by Dan on 7th December 2017 at 5:08 pm

        Last night on CNBC’s Fast Money we discussed stocks that have been associated, and benefited from the rise of late in Bitcoin, click below: My take is simple, there are NO pure plays in the stock ... […]

      • Update – Cisco (CSCO) No Kidding
        by CC on 6th December 2017 at 8:21 pm

        Yesterday I took us through a roll scenario in Starbucks where a winning call spread was rolled out to become a calendar, extending the bullish view while booking profits and reducing deltas after the initial ... […]


      The Big Picture Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media

      • 100,000,000 Stars in 3 Minutes
        by Barry Ritholtz on 12th December 2017 at 3:00 am

        Your daily palate cleanser: In January 2015, NASA released the largest image ever of the Andromeda galaxy, taken by the Hubble telescope. Totaling 1.5 billion pixels and requiring 4.3 gigabytes of disk space, this photo provides a detailed glimpse at the sheer scale of our nearest galactic neighbor. By zooming into the incredible shot, filmmaker Dave… Read More The post 100,000,000 Stars in 3 Minutes appeared first on The Big Picture. […]

      • Circle of Competence
        by Barry Ritholtz on 11th December 2017 at 5:00 pm

        Source: Safal Niveshak   I love this graphic from Safal, explaining Tren Griffin’s version of the Circle of Competence: The idea behind the Circle of Competence filter is so simple it is embarrassing to say it out loud: when you do not know what you are doing, it is riskier than when you do know what… Read More The post Circle of Competence appeared first on The Big Picture. […]

      • Ray Dalio on The Fine Art of Failure
        by Barry Ritholtz on 11th December 2017 at 1:30 pm

        A Hedge Fund Giant Found Lots of Value in Failure The world’s biggest hedge fund springs from the wreckage of his monumental error. Bloomberg, December 11, 2017       By any conceivable measure, Ray Dalio, head of Bridgewater Associates LP, is a wild success. The founder of the world’s largest hedge fund with $160… Read More The post Ray Dalio on The Fine Art of Failure appeared first on The Big Picture. […]

      • 10 Monday AM Reads
        by Barry Ritholtz on 11th December 2017 at 12:59 pm

        My back to work after the first snowstorm of the season morning train reads: • A stunning new study shows that Fox News is more powerful than we ever imagined (Vox) • Index Funds Rule the World, But Should They Rule You? (MoneyBeat) • Benoit Mandelbrot’s Ideas about Investing and Markets (Made as Simple as Possible, but not Simpler). (25iq) • The Bad… Read More The post 10 Monday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture. […]

      • Trust As a Symbol of Brand Equity
        by Barry Ritholtz on 11th December 2017 at 11:15 am

        Trust is eroding as a symbol of brand equity. Who’s winning in today’s market? Brands that play to a sense of New.     The post Trust As a Symbol of Brand Equity appeared first on The Big Picture. […]


      Above the Market Perspectives on capital markets and personal finance

      • Meaning is Expensive
        by Bob Seawright on 19th October 2017 at 9:41 pm

        On the morning of January 20, 2015, Stephen Pasceri, a 55-year old accountant, called in sick to work and left his suburban home without saying goodbye to his wife. He left behind a thumb-drive filled with medical “research” and drove … Continue reading &rarr […]

      • “I’m Joining a Cult!” (said nobody, ever)
        by Bob Seawright on 13th October 2017 at 10:36 pm

        George Orwell famously defined the tribal mindset as extreme identification with one’s tribe, “placing it beyond good and evil and recognising no other duty than that of advancing its interests.” In today’s world, that sounds like what passes for normal. … Continue reading &rarr […]

      • Navigating Uncertain Rewards and Certain Risks
        by Bob Seawright on 2nd October 2017 at 8:42 pm

        Photo source: Gary Elliot, San Diego Union Tribune My latest Research magazine column is now available online. Here’s a taste. September 1, 2011, was a beautiful day. Photographer Gary Elliot was taking pictures at Swami’s, a popular surfing beach in Encinitas, … Continue reading &rarr […]

      • Q3 2017 Market Monitor
        by Bob Seawright on 30th September 2017 at 8:59 pm

        […]

      • The Relentless Now
        by Bob Seawright on 21st September 2017 at 9:29 pm

        In philosophy, presentism is the idea only the present exists. More loosely, it refers to a narrow focus on the conditions of the moment. Philosophy aside, anyone with even a bit of experience in the financial world will recognize presentism … Continue reading &rarr […]


      Epsilon Theory – Salient Think beyond convention.

      • Mailbag: Life in Trumpland
        by Ben Hunt on 6th March 2017 at 5:17 pm

        The best part about this job, other than being recognized in random bars by 50-year old financial advisors who are always good to buy me a drink (hey, you take your celebrity where you can), is the correspondence with readers. I began writing Epsilon Theory 3+ years ago and from the outset I started getting emails from really smart people, truth-seekers all, making their way in this world of mendacity and inauthenticity without succumbing to it, and it’s given me — if not an optimism — then at least the occasional absence of despair about the world my daughters will inherit. I’m going to make a regular habit of what I always found to be the most enjoyable part of Bill Simmons’ Sports Guy blog — the reader Mailbag. I got more than the usual quota of great emails from my most recent note “The Evolution of Competition,” my take on the political and social polarization running rampant in Trumpworld. So without further ado... The post Mailbag: Life in Trumpland appeared first on Salient. […]

      • I’m Not Predicting, I’m Observing
        by Ben Hunt on 1st March 2017 at 11:33 pm

        George Soros has a great line, one that I’ve stolen many times: “I’m not predicting. I’m observing.” We really don’t have a crystal ball, and it really is a dumb idea to pretend that we do. But what’s not dumb is to keep your eyes and ears open, observing both what the world is telling you (playing the cards) and what other market participants are telling you (playing the players), and reacting accordingly. That’s the heart of tactical investing. The post I’m Not Predicting, I’m Observing appeared first on Salient. […]

      • The Evolution of Competition
        by Ben Hunt on 7th February 2017 at 1:38 am

        The Trump presidency is breaking us. Not because of the specifics of his policies or whether they’re right or wrong or anything like that. It’s breaking us because we now routinely talk past or yell at our friends, family, and fellow citizens, despite vast common ground on the really big ideas of what it means to be Americans or, more fundamentally still, a good human being. Game theory can’t solve this growing discordance or reverse the evolution of competition, but it can identify the issue and maybe, just maybe, show us ways to mitigate the damage. The post The Evolution of Competition appeared first on Salient. […]

      • Fiat Money, Fiat News
        by Ben Hunt on 4th January 2017 at 12:53 am

        The history of money provides instructive lessons for the dominant social issue of the past few months: fake news. There’s an important distinction to be made between politically slanted news, like when the Washington Post writes a silly article about Russians hacking the U.S. electric grid, and outright fakery. The former is fiat news, which is to “real news” what fiat currencies like dollars and euros and yen are to “real money” like a gold coin. Fake news is something different. Fake news is counterfeit news, which is to fiat news what counterfeit bank notes are to fiat currencies. The fiat news business is booming. As a result, the counterfeit news business is booming, too. And if the history of fiat money and counterfeit money is any guide, we ain’t seen nothing yet. The post Fiat Money, Fiat News appeared first on Salient. […]

      • The Art of the Probe
        by Ben Hunt on 8th December 2016 at 11:48 pm

        I’ve written a lot about The Common Knowledge Game – here, here, and here – because it’s the game of markets, i.e., it’s the central contribution of game theory to understanding how markets work. I’ve also written a lot about new technologies and new perspectives – here, here, and here – that help us see The Common Knowledge Game in action. But until today I’ve never written on a basic question: how can you be a better player in the game of markets? This is my first cut at an answer, and along the way I’ll pull examples from the game of poker and the game of nations. I think it’s a fun paper and hope you find it useful. The post The Art of the Probe appeared first on Salient. […]


      Slope of Hope Technical Analysis, SlopeCharts, and Bear Markets

      • Measuring the Mania
        by Tim Knight on 12th December 2017 at 2:56 am

        It seems everyone is talking about Bitcoin these days. On ZeroHedge, I’d say easily half the articles are crypto-related. And why not? The equity market has become a bore. How much can you say about a market which basically goes up about half a percent day after day until the end of time? I’ve anchored […]

      • Chirp Chirp, Chirp Chirp… Silence?
        by NFTRH on 11th December 2017 at 11:27 pm

        The canary chirped in 2013 as its equipment sector ramped up its bookings and we kept up with the bullish data every step of the way after that with updates like this one. Semi Sector & Stock Market (2014) The canary chirped again, as we noted amid much resistance if not outright contempt (this is […]

      • Swing Trade SPLK SVU APC
        by Ryan Mallory on 11th December 2017 at 8:10 pm

        Long Splunk (SPLK) Long Supervalu (SVU) Short Anadarko Petroleum (APC) […]

      • Gold Fingered
        by Tim Knight on 11th December 2017 at 6:32 pm

        You could have put money into anything – – anything at all – – over the past six years and done better than gold. Real estate………stocks……….kitty litter. Gold has been a total piece of garbage, and I’ve got a sneaking suspicion that gold bugs have finally up to “here” with the so-called precious metal and […]

      • A Few Lesser-Knowns
        by Tim Knight on 11th December 2017 at 4:03 pm

        Hey, where IS everyone this morning? Are you all off trading crypto futures? Well, maybe so. On that these, here are a trio of lesser-known ones with interesting charts. […]


      SMB Training Blog Lessons from the trading desk

      • Technical Analysis Benefiting Market Neutral Options Traders
        by smbcapital on 8th December 2017 at 1:08 pm

        What if you could adjust your market neutral trades before they are under pressure? This is exactly what many of the pro options traders on our desk are doing. Getting inside the market internals, watching price action, identifying levels… this isn’t just for day trading stocks. These skills can help you seriously improve your market neutral options spreads. We have two on-demand webinars available ... Read Mor […]

      • This trader is “killing it” as a scalper
        by Bella on 4th December 2017 at 5:04 pm

        One scalper on our desk proudly wrote to Dr. Steenbarger and me about his progress recently: Had 3 personal best this week: 1) Best day: 167K net 2) Best month: 601K net 3) Best year: 1.5M net Cheers! $601,000 in net profits is a sensational trading month! A scalper is a trader who makes very short-term trades.  He is active.  ... Read Mor […]

      • Why this trader is “crushing it”
        by Bella on 1st December 2017 at 10:16 pm

        It is important to study the traders who are succeeding and learn from them. In his Daily Report Card, that this top trader shares with Dr. Steenbarger and myself, you can see he is “crushing it”: entry quality 9/10 + 75k Great finish to a great month – think I netted around 775k for the month.  Pretty staggering considering my ... Read Mor […]

      • Should I quit as a trader?
        by Bella on 22nd November 2017 at 4:46 pm

        It is not uncommon for developing traders to stare at this decision: should I quit?  This is true for even traders who go on to become successful, even 7-figure traders. I share this because I know that there are readers facing this question.  And many wonder whether they can make it, if they start poorly.  You can. Let me share ... Read Mor […]

      • Are there less opportunities in this market into the close for traders?
        by Bella on 21st November 2017 at 8:59 pm

        A reader asked: Hello Mike. I have been involved in trading for a number of years and follow your youtube channel with interest. A quick query when you have some time. Going back a few years, the main ‘focus’ for trading (mainly using the tape) was on the open and the first hour of trading. Then also the last hour ... Read Mor […]



      The Irrelevant Investor Just another WordPress site

      • These Are the Goods
        by Michael Batnick on 10th December 2017 at 1:01 pm

                Articles We have a full-blown mania on our hands and Wall Street is still at the drawing board. By Josh Brown  For a time last week, Coinbase was among the 10 most downloaded iPhone apps, ahead of Uber and Twitter. By Nathaniel Popper Markets are supposed to match the needs of buyers...... […]

      • Two Sides of the Same Coin
        by Michael Batnick on 7th December 2017 at 2:38 pm

        It’s impossible to escape the mania. By this point, literally everybody is talking about it. Friends, family members, customs agents, cats, and obviously, Uber drivers. If you own bitcoin or any of the other cryptos that are making those of us who don’t feel foolish, good for you. For the rest of us, we’ve got...... […]

      • Animal Spirits: A Random Walk Down Nowhere
        by Michael Batnick on 6th December 2017 at 12:02 pm

        Here are links to topics we discussed on the show. People aren’t having babies Automation may wipe out 1/3 of America’s workforce by 2030 Solar prices are crashing Animal Spirits is a collective state of mind.  Goldman’s Primer on Blockchain is very good.  The implosion in early stage VC Fred Wilson’s take Goldman warns on...... […]

      • Information Without Meaning
        by Michael Batnick on 5th December 2017 at 9:10 pm

        December has historically been a good time to own stocks. Over the last 91 years, the S&P 500 has averaged a 1.7% return, compared to a 0.9% gain for all other months, not an insignificant spread. So what do we do with this information? 2017 is the twenty-seventh time that the S&P 500 has been...... […]

      • This Could Be the Top
        by Michael Batnick on 4th December 2017 at 10:38 pm

        Could today have been a more obvious “sell the news event?” Of course it wasn’t obvious to me in the morning, and if we closed at the highs I wouldn’t be writing this, but come on. Could this have been any more obvious? The S&P 500 fell 1% from its highs, and closed down a...... […]


      The Reformed Broker I help people invest and manage portfolios for them.


      Newfound Research Investing at the intersection of quantitative and behavioral finance


      A Teachable Moment Just another WordPress site

      • Small Gains + Large Risks = Terrible Results
        by Anthony Isola on 11th December 2017 at 5:41 pm

        Investors constantly try to grab nickels in front of steamrollers. Trading dollars for nickels will never make you rich. Poor risk management goes for other parts of our lives. A trainer at CrossFit helped prove this hypothesis. Yes, I go there. I don’t mention it much for two reasons: #1 –  I suck at it....... […]

      • It’s Monday Again…..When Is My Retirement?
        by Anthony Isola on 11th December 2017 at 12:25 pm

        Good Morning! Here are this week’s retirement links. Have a great day! Tax Bill Passed By Senate Backs Off 457(b), 403(b) Plan Changes – planadviser What To Buy Recent Retirees To Transform Their Quality Of Life – MarketWatch Divorce After 50: What I Wish I Had Known Beforehand – MarketWatch Ready to Retire? Here’ a...... […]

      • We Are All at Record Highs
        by Anthony Isola on 7th December 2017 at 1:18 pm

        Why do people freak out when the stock market hits and roars past previous highs? In other aspects of our lives, we are constantly surpassing old peaks. Think of our age, each second we continue to breathe we smash through our previous records of longevity. The same goes for the planet we inhabit. Life did...... […]

      • The Biggest Market Failure of All
        by Anthony Isola on 4th December 2017 at 4:29 pm

            Picking the wrong parents is our nation’s biggest market failure. This “rigged” market could lead our country down a path filled with unprecedented turmoil and social chaos. The top 20% of our population has a vise-like grip on our economy (and the wealth it generates) at an unprecedented level. This group is defined...... […]

      • It’s Monday Again…..When Is My Retirement?
        by Anthony Isola on 4th December 2017 at 12:25 pm

        Good Morning! Here are this week’s retirement links. Have a great day!   401(k) Managed Account Push Rife With Conflicts Of Interest – InvestmentNews Bill Sweet’s Year End Checklist – The Big Picture Three Keys To Happiness – HumbleDollar Even A $1 Million Retirement Nest Egg Isn’t Enough Anymore – CNBC Unions Could Be ‘Next...... […]


      Turing Finance Computer Science meets Quantitative Finance

      • Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis with R, Part One
        by StuartReid on 20th November 2016 at 12:00 pm

        Whilst working on some code for my Masters I kept thinking, "it would be really awesome if there was an R package which just consumed a price series and produced a data.frame of results from multiple randomness tests at multiple frequencies". ... Read More The post Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis with R, Part One appeared first on Turing Finance. […]

      • The Promise of Computing
        by StuartReid on 19th September 2016 at 9:00 pm

        You would be forgiven for thinking that Moore's law is a law like Newton's laws. It really does seem that as surely as an apple will fall to the ground, so too shall our computers, phones, tablets, and (now) watches capacity increase year-after-year ... Read More The post The Promise of Computing appeared first on Turing Finance. […]

      • Lossless Compression Algorithms and Market Efficiency?
        by StuartReid on 18th April 2016 at 3:00 pm

        In Hacking The Random Walk Hypothesis we applied the NIST suite of cryptographic tests for randomness to binarized daily market returns. Overall the NIST suite failed on the data. This result was taken to mean that markets are not quite the ... Read More The post Lossless Compression Algorithms and Market Efficiency? appeared first on Turing Finance. […]

      • Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks
        by StuartReid on 8th February 2016 at 8:00 am

        Because volatility seems to cluster in real life as well as the markets, it has been a while since my last article. Sorry about that. Today we will be taking our first giant leap along A Non-Random Walk down Wall Street. Read More The post Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks appeared first on Turing Finance. […]

      • How to be a Quant
        by StuartReid on 6th October 2015 at 10:00 pm

        Since writing about my experience writing the CFA Level I exam in June, I have received many emails from people interested in finding out how to become a quant. To some extent this post will answer that question. That said, this post is actually not ... Read More The post How to be a Quant appeared first on Turing Finance. […]


      UpsideTrader My Macro Visions, technicals, and The Long and Short Of It

      • IBB or XBI- Pick Your Poison
        by Joe Donohue on 3rd November 2017 at 12:49 am

        The market came down hard at the open but then put in a V recovery at about 10 am and ended up closing at or near the highs of the day, so another dip got bought. 10-minute chart Biotech continues to exhibit odd behaviour as IBB goes down and XBI goes up. I've told you the reason... The post IBB or XBI- Pick Your Poison appeared first on UpsideTrader. […]

      • The Week That Was
        by Joe Donohue on 30th October 2017 at 2:04 am

        Last week the SPX, Dow and the Nazzy made more all tie highs.  The Russell 2000 didn't, but the chart remains very bullish and it looks like it wants to join the party, maybe as soon as this week. The Nasdaq had a phenomenal breakout on Friday (+2.9%) thanks to GOOG, AMZN and AAPL. Retail looks pathetic and... The post The Week That Was appeared first on UpsideTrader. […]

      • Amazon “Is” Retail
        by Joe Donohue on 26th October 2017 at 10:50 pm

        AMZN aftermarket quote The market was mixed to slightly green today. The big news came after the market closed, as AMZN reported an awesome number. It is currently up almost 75 points in aftermarket trading.  As a result, the QQQ has had a nice pop after hours. Jeff Bezos is literally taking over the world and honestly,... The post Amazon “Is” Retail appeared first on UpsideTrader. […]

      • We Dipped, Then Got Bought…a Little
        by Joe Donohue on 25th October 2017 at 11:49 pm

        10-minute chart It was a soft open, down about 23 handles, then some buyers stepped in around lunchtime and started nibbling some of the dip. The S&P closed down 12 but 13 handles off the day's lows. There weren't any one-day wonders like IBM, CAT or MMM to save the day today, but a selloff... The post We Dipped, Then Got Bought…a Little appeared first on UpsideTrader. […]

      • Ok, Today It Was MMM & CAT
        by Joe Donohue on 25th October 2017 at 12:28 am

        Hotter than a two dollar pistol When I speak of bad breadth in the market, as I  briefly addressed last night, I really mean lack of participation where everyone jumps in the pool at once and has really good time. That means all sectors and indexes are hitting on all cylinders at once. A couple of weeks ago the Dow... The post Ok, Today It Was MMM & CAT appeared first on UpsideTrader. […]


      • Why Focusing on Pre Workout Food Habits is a Core Necessity in the Fitness Industry
        by jeff pierce on 11th December 2017 at 10:30 pm

        By Steve Joseph Pre-workout nutrition is an essential fuel your body requires to become the shredded beast that you always craved to be. But, then, what kind of pre-workout nutrition needs to be followed? What kind of food to eat before the workout? And, more importantly, when should you be consuming the food? Is it immediately before the […]

      • Hiring Movers for your Long Distance Move
        by jeff pierce on 11th December 2017 at 10:22 pm

        By Charlie Brown Hiring the right mover for a long distance move can feel overwhelming. Considering the large number of moving companies that you can choose from, the process can be intimidating when you do not know what to expect. After gathering the information you need through research and consultations you will be able to proceed confidently with […]

      • 6 Important Qualities That Every Office for Rent Should Have
        by jeff pierce on 11th December 2017 at 10:16 pm

        By Charlie Brown A productive and secure business premises does not have to be situated in a heavily guarded corporate compound or the topmost floor of a skyscraper. Whichever place you lease for your business should allow you to do your work without any problem. If you are looking for an office to rent, here are a few […]

      • Drive Your Mind Towards Positivity Through Compassion By Practicing Metta Meditation
        by jeff pierce on 9th December 2017 at 7:26 pm

        By Charlie Brown Before you love others, it is more important to love yourself and that too unconditionally, without any expectations. The love should emanate from the feeling of goodness only that does not care about making judgments. Think about how you feel when you look upon a newborn. You just look at it as a bundle of […]

      • Some Common Apprehensions of SEO Beginners
        by jeff pierce on 5th December 2017 at 8:47 am

        By Christopher Adams People who have been practicing Search Engine Optimization for years have a typical set of apprehensions and concerns but those who are just starting SEO, their concerns are completely different. Individuals and businesses learning SEO and trying to implement the strategies would certainly encounter a few issues but they would soon realize the effectiveness of SEO for […]



      Above list excludes a few well known blogs but hosted on Blogspot that seems to not gel with the plugin I am using to extract the blog posts. Listing them in Alphabetical Order below

      Musings on Markets – Aswath Damodaran

      The Brooklyn Investor

      Econompic Data

      Jesse’s Cafe Americain

      Jonathan Clements

      Severian Asset Management

      StockBee

      The Chart Pattern Trader

      The Art of Trading

      VIX and more