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US Blog Roll
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This is a feed from major US Blogs on Finance & Investment. If you find any new site that you feel is worth listing out here, please ping me either in the comments column or in the contact us form.



Abnormal Returns Forecast-free since 2005


Comments on: - | Adam H Grimes Musings on markets, risk, and life


    The Aleph Blog Helping Institutions and Ordinary People Invest Better by Focusing on Risk Control

    • “Bank” Some of Your Gains
      by David Merkel on 17th October 2017 at 6:29 am

      ======================= Recently I read Jonathan Clements’ piece Enough Already.  The basic idea was to encourage older investors who have made gains in the risk assets, typically stocks, though it would apply to high yield bonds and other non-guaranteed investments that are highly correlated with stocks.  His pithy way of phrasing it is: If I have […]

    • The Many Virtues of Simplicity
      by David Merkel on 8th October 2017 at 4:33 am

      ============== There are at least eight reasons why taking a simple approach to investing is a wise thing to do. Understandable Explainable Reduced “Too smart for you own good risk” Clearer risk management Less trading Taxes are likely easier Not Trendy Cheap Understandable You have to understand your investments, even if it’s just at the […]

    • Book Review: The Best Investment Writing, Volume 1
      by David Merkel on 5th October 2017 at 8:51 am

      I was pleasantly surprised to be invited to contribute a chapter to this book.  I am going to encourage you to buy this book, but let me give some of the reasons not to buy this book: Don’t buy it to give me something.  I don’t get anything from sales of this book.  Neither does […]

    • Estimating Future Stock Returns, June 2017 Update
      by David Merkel on 22nd September 2017 at 7:18 am

      I’d say this is getting boring, but it’s pretty fascinating watching the rally run.  Now, this is the seventh time I have done this quarterly analysis.  The first one was for December 2015.  Over that time period, the expected annualized 10-year return went like this, quarter by quarter: 6.10%, 6.74%, 6.30%, 6.01%, 5.02%, 4.79%, and […]

    • How to Invest Carefully for Mom
      by David Merkel on 21st September 2017 at 6:32 am

      ======== Just a note before I begin. My piece called “Where Money Goes to Die” was an abnormal piece for me, and it received abnormal attention.  The responses came in many languages aside from English, including Spanish, Turkish and Russian.  It was interesting to note the level of distortion of my positions among those writing […]


    All Star Charts Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets

    • [Premium] Monthly Conference Call Video Recording October 2017
      by JC on 20th October 2017 at 12:52 am

      The post [Premium] Monthly Conference Call Video Recording October 2017 appeared first on All Star Charts. […]

    • Stocktoberfest Presentation Video and Slides
      by JC on 19th October 2017 at 5:32 pm

      Every Fall for the past 7 years I’ve gone to beautiful Coronado, CA for the annual Stocktoberfest conference put on by Stocktwits. Sometimes they even let me get up and show off some of my favorite charts. They know that I rip through thousands of charts a week and I could literally be up on […] The post Stocktoberfest Presentation Video and Slides appeared first on All Star Charts. […]

    • Podcast Season 1 – Ep 8 – Larry McDonald, Bear Traps Report & NY Times Best Selling Author
      by JC on 18th October 2017 at 6:17 pm

      Larry McDonald is not only one of my favorite authors and analysts, but also one of my favorite people. His perspective on markets, sentiment and investor behavior is like no other. Larry is the author of A Colossal Failure of Common Sense: The Inside Story of the Collapse of Lehman Brothers. It is a must read […] The post Podcast Season 1 – Ep 8 – Larry McDonald, Bear Traps Report & NY Times Best Selling Author appeared first on All Star Charts. […]

    • [Chart Of The Week] Silver Weakness Is Evidence Of Risk Aversion For Precious Metals
      by JC on 18th October 2017 at 2:21 pm

      We don’t have to complicate things. It’s very simple. If there is actual risk appetite for precious metals, then Silver would be outperforming Gold, not the other way around. The Gold Bugs have little to say at this point, so some of them irresponsibly cherry-pick year-to-date returns to pretend Gold is in an uptrend. Some […] The post [Chart Of The Week] Silver Weakness Is Evidence Of Risk Aversion For Precious Metals appeared first on All Star Charts. […]

    • About That Bull Flag in Small-caps
      by JC on 17th October 2017 at 4:57 am

      I’m not sure if you guys noticed what’s been going on in Small-caps over the past couple of weeks, but I think it’s worth pointing out. First of all, remember this has been a tremendous leading indicator for a long time. I was pounding the table in November about that historic breakout when the Russell2000 Futures […] The post About That Bull Flag in Small-caps appeared first on All Star Charts. […]


    Alpha Architect Empowering Investors Through Education

    • Trend-Following: A Deep Dive Into A Unique Risk Premium
      by Wesley R. Gray, Ph.D. on 18th October 2017 at 3:00 pm

      Trend-following strategies have historically been laughed at via the modern academic finance research community. Having first-hand knowledge of that community, we can verify that academic researchers are humans like the rest of us (we checked, academics aren't robots), and they suffer from group think and confirmation bias. Anything related to momentum and/or trend-following was written [...] The post Trend-Following: A Deep Dive Into A Unique Risk Premium appeared first on Alpha Architect. […]

    • A Fund Flows Theory for Value and Momentum Investing
      by Jack Vogel, Ph.D. on 17th October 2017 at 3:02 pm

      Value and Momentum Investing -- our two favorite factors. We talk about these phenomena on our blog all the time, and have given both rational and behavioral explanations as to why these may occur. However, very few in the finance community are direct investors into Value and Momentum securities -- the individual stocks (or bonds) themselves. Many use ETFs or mutual funds to gain access to these factors. Institutions generally do the same, either investing in hedge funds or managed accounts. This is delegated asset management, whereby one delegates the decision of the security selection onto a third-party manager. A by-product of delegation is that from time to time, the third-party manager must be assessed. While many may claim the process is most important, the performance is always taken into consideration. So what happens to a Value manager who is overweight the wrong industry? While the manager may be following the same process discussed ex-ante, the ex-post assessment may be that the manager needs to be fired due to underperformance. The post A Fund Flows Theory for Value and Momentum Investing appeared first on Alpha Architect. […]

    • Academic Research Insight: Sentiment Feedback Strength Trading Strategy
      by Elisabetta Basilico, PhD, CFA on 16th October 2017 at 3:17 pm

      Genetic programming optimization for a sentiment feedback strength based trading strategy Steve Y.Yang, Sheung Yin Kevin Mo, AnqiLiu, Andrei A.Kirilenko A version of this paper can be found here Want to read our summaries of academic finance papers? Check out our Academic Research Insight category. What are the research questions? Based on the evidence that tweets are faster [...] The post Academic Research Insight: Sentiment Feedback Strength Trading Strategy appeared first on Alpha Architect. […]

    • Podcast: Factor Replication with Lu Zhang (Wes)
      by Wesley R. Gray, Ph.D. on 16th October 2017 at 12:35 pm

      Here is a link to our podcast on Behind the Markets Wes and Jeremy speak with Lu Zhang, The John W. Galbreath Chair, Professor of Finance, at the Fisher College of Business at The Ohio State University, and co-author of the paper, "Replicating Anomalies." The team dig into the 3-year research project and dissect some of the [...] The post Podcast: Factor Replication with Lu Zhang (Wes) appeared first on Alpha Architect. […]

    • Replicating Anomalies
      by Wesley R. Gray, Ph.D. on 13th October 2017 at 3:22 pm

      Academic research is amazing and incredibly useful for helping us better understand the complex world in which we live. In fact, academic research has literally rewired my brain at times. However, research isn't perfect and the search for truth is messy. Data-mining. Overfitting. P-hacking. We've recently covered the subject here, here, and here. What's the [...] The post Replicating Anomalies appeared first on Alpha Architect. […]


    Andrew Thrasher – technical analysis

    • The Market Just Did Something We Don’t See Happen Very Often
      by Andrew Thrasher, CMT on 16th October 2017 at 1:46 pm

      2017 has been a year of setting records. We’ve seen a record level of low volatility, a record amount of time without a 5% decline in U.S. equities, and what has to be a record amount of natural disasters taking Continue reading The Market Just Did Something We Don’t See Happen Very Often→ The post The Market Just Did Something We Don’t See Happen Very Often appeared first on . […]

    • The Recent Breakout in Gold
      by Andrew Thrasher, CMT on 30th August 2017 at 1:51 pm

      There’s been a lot of discussion recently of the breakout in gold prices. The yellow metal had been trading in a range for the last several months, seeing resistance just under $1,300/oz and support at $1,220/oz. While I do believe Continue reading The Recent Breakout in Gold→ The post The Recent Breakout in Gold appeared first on . […]

    • Why August Could be One Bear of a Month
      by Andrew Thrasher, CMT on 1st August 2017 at 10:30 am

      Since my last blog post, titled “What I’m Seeing That Has Me Concerned About the Volatility Index” we saw a near 50% rise in the Volatility Index ($VIX) intraday nine days later on June 29th, which caught quite a few Continue reading Why August Could be One Bear of a Month→ The post Why August Could be One Bear of a Month appeared first on . […]

    • What I’m Seeing That Has Me Concerned About the Volatility Index
      by Andrew Thrasher, CMT on 20th June 2017 at 10:30 am

      I’ve had a great response to my Dow Award paper, Forecasting a Volatility Tsunami, with it being downloaded over 3,000 times since April. I really appreciate the support and the positive feedback I’ve received so far. Last week I had Continue reading What I’m Seeing That Has Me Concerned About the Volatility Index→ The post What I’m Seeing That Has Me Concerned About the Volatility Index appeared first on . […]

    • What’s In A Name?
      by Andrew Thrasher, CMT on 13th June 2017 at 10:30 am

      “What’s in a name? That which we call a rose By any other name would smell as sweet.” Romeo and Juliet One of my goals for 2017 was to read more. While I’m nowhere close to the Patrick O’Shaughnessy-level of Continue reading What’s In A Name?→ The post What’s In A Name? appeared first on . […]


    A Wealth of Common Sense Personal Finance, Investments & Markets

    • How to Invest At All-Time Highs
      by Ben Carlson on 18th October 2017 at 5:21 pm

      Stocks can’t continue to go up forever and rates can’t continue to go down forever so what am I supposed to do? I’ve been receiving similar questions about the markets for a number of years now. In some ways, investing in an ever-rising market is just as hard as staying the course during a bear...... […]

    • Risk Perception vs. Risk Profile
      by Ben Carlson on 17th October 2017 at 8:08 pm

      The unemployment rate sits at 4.3%. Inflation is subdued at just 2.2% over the previous 12 months. The 10-year treasury bond yield is still well below 3%. The S&P 500 passed through 2500 recently and has hit 45 (and counting) new all-time highs in 2017 alone. Stocks haven’t seen a 10% correction in almost 2...... […]

    • The Economics of Having Twins
      by Ben Carlson on 15th October 2017 at 6:16 pm

      “Wow, you really have your hands full, huh?” I get this comment roughly 3-4x a week when people see me out and about with my 5-month old twins and 3-year-old daughter in tow. If I’m in a good mood and carrying two car seats I’ll even throw in a dad joke and reply, “Literally!” Our...... […]

    • The Liberation of Limiting Yourself
      by Ben Carlson on 13th October 2017 at 1:01 am

      I remember when The White Stripes burst onto the scene from Detroit in the early-2000s. Their sound was unique. Their look was unique. And no one could figure out what the relationship was between Jack and Meg White. Are they brother and sister? Are they married? Maybe they’re cousins? This was the early days of...... […]

    • Bond Market Bubbles Are Not What You Think
      by Ben Carlson on 11th October 2017 at 7:25 pm

      Investors have been hearing about bond market bubbles since the financial crisis. Interest rates have refused to budge but even if/when they do rise most of the people proclaiming this is a “bond bubble” don’t really understand what that means. There’s a huge difference between how bonds and stocks are structured and many of those...... […]


    Behavior Gap Exploring human behavior with a Sharpie

    • Surfing Through Waves of Uncertainty
      by Carl Richards on 3rd October 2017 at 4:21 pm

      Dave has had some unexpected success over the past 12 months. Massive success. The only problem is that with that success comes a lot of fear, uncertainty, and anxiety. What do you do with that? My attempt to answer that question, today on BG Radio. Listen time: 7:12 The post Surfing Through Waves of Uncertainty appeared first on Behavior Gap. […]

    • Why Did I Wait So Long?
      by Carl Richards on 20th September 2017 at 6:46 pm

      Ryan's been working for other people for the last 15 years. He's been wanting to start his own company for almost as long. He finally started. Two months into the change, he can't imagine why he didn't do it sooner. So, listener, what do you think? Listen time: 4:07 The post Why Did I Wait So Long? appeared first on Behavior Gap. […]

    • Please Tell Me What You’re Up To
      by Carl Richards on 18th September 2017 at 4:20 pm

      People who are "up to something" are my favorite people. It doesn't even matter WHAT they are up to. Just so long as they have that special look in their eye. So what are YOU up to? Or better yet, what do you WANT to be up to? Listen time: 3:49 The post Please Tell Me What You’re Up To appeared first on Behavior Gap. […]

    • You Need to Play in Traffic – Trust Me
      by Carl Richards on 13th September 2017 at 2:05 pm

      Play in traffic. If you don't how are you ever going to get hit? If people don't know about your work, it's hard to get recognition for it. Whatever you do, do it in public. No more hiding - show your work. Today on BG Radio: Conditions for Success, 3 of 3. Listen time: 2:21 The post You Need to Play in Traffic – Trust Me appeared first on Behavior Gap. […]

    • Do Your Thing: A Success Condition
      by Carl Richards on 12th September 2017 at 3:36 pm

      My #1 condition for success? Do your thing. Not do your work, or do your art. Do your THING. Whatever your thing is. Because no matter how crazy your thing is, the internet makes it possible. Today on BG Radio, the Conditions for Success Series continues. Episode 2 of 3 - Do Your Thing. Listen time: 2:56 The post Do Your Thing: A Success Condition appeared first on Behavior Gap. […]


    Behavior Gap Exploring human behavior with a Sharpie

    • Surfing Through Waves of Uncertainty
      by Carl Richards on 3rd October 2017 at 4:21 pm

      Dave has had some unexpected success over the past 12 months. Massive success. The only problem is that with that success comes a lot of fear, uncertainty, and anxiety. What do you do with that? My attempt to answer that question, today on BG Radio. Listen time: 7:12 The post Surfing Through Waves of Uncertainty appeared first on Behavior Gap. […]

    • Why Did I Wait So Long?
      by Carl Richards on 20th September 2017 at 6:46 pm

      Ryan's been working for other people for the last 15 years. He's been wanting to start his own company for almost as long. He finally started. Two months into the change, he can't imagine why he didn't do it sooner. So, listener, what do you think? Listen time: 4:07 The post Why Did I Wait So Long? appeared first on Behavior Gap. […]

    • Please Tell Me What You’re Up To
      by Carl Richards on 18th September 2017 at 4:20 pm

      People who are "up to something" are my favorite people. It doesn't even matter WHAT they are up to. Just so long as they have that special look in their eye. So what are YOU up to? Or better yet, what do you WANT to be up to? Listen time: 3:49 The post Please Tell Me What You’re Up To appeared first on Behavior Gap. […]

    • You Need to Play in Traffic – Trust Me
      by Carl Richards on 13th September 2017 at 2:05 pm

      Play in traffic. If you don't how are you ever going to get hit? If people don't know about your work, it's hard to get recognition for it. Whatever you do, do it in public. No more hiding - show your work. Today on BG Radio: Conditions for Success, 3 of 3. Listen time: 2:21 The post You Need to Play in Traffic – Trust Me appeared first on Behavior Gap. […]

    • Do Your Thing: A Success Condition
      by Carl Richards on 12th September 2017 at 3:36 pm

      My #1 condition for success? Do your thing. Not do your work, or do your art. Do your THING. Whatever your thing is. Because no matter how crazy your thing is, the internet makes it possible. Today on BG Radio, the Conditions for Success Series continues. Episode 2 of 3 - Do Your Thing. Listen time: 2:56 The post Do Your Thing: A Success Condition appeared first on Behavior Gap. […]


    Collaborative Fund Collaborative Fund is a leading source of capital for entrepreneurs pushing the world forward.

    • The Theory of Maybes
      on 19th October 2017 at 3:44 pm

      Isaac Newton was a scientific genius at a time when scientists were often denounced as heretics. He had one antidote to this problem: He had to prove his theories beyond any doubt, which required obsessive precision. In his biography on Newton, Mitch Stokes writes: [Newton] could make make measurements with such precision that few philosophers accused him of fabricating his results … Using only a compass an his eye, Newton would painstakingly hunt down the source of minute measurement discrepancies of less than one one hundredth of an inch … no one else in the seventeenth century would have paused for an error twice that size. Newton’s work rests on the idea that the physical world works in ways that are measurable, and, therefore, as long as you measure carefully enough you could learn anything about everything. Newton was so good at this that we named the field after him: Newtonian physics. Scientists viewed the physical world through that single lens for another two-hundred years. Then we discovered quantum physics. It upended everything. Quantum physics showed us that parts of the physical world resisted the precision Newton obsessed over. We began to learn that physical things could behave in ways we never thought possible. Ways that defied logic. Subatomic particle movements were messy and unpredictable. Quantum theory taught us that precise measurements can’t exist because the act of measuring something changes its movement. Walter Isaacson writes about the famous Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle in his biography of Albert Einstein: It is impossible to know, Heisenberg declared, the precise position of a particle, such as a moving electron, and its precise momentum at the same instant. The more precisely the position of the particle is measured, the less precisely it is possible to measure its momentum. An electron does not have a definite position or path until we observe it. This is a feature of our universe, he said, not merely some defect in our observing or measuring abilities. The uncertainty principle, so simple and yet so startling, was a stake in the heart of [Newtonian] physics. It asserts that there is no objective reality—not even an objective position of a particle—outside of our observations. The emergence of two types of physics taught scientists to be humble. Neither version is better than the other. You just have to know which one to use in the right circumstance. Newtonian physics is deterministic. It gives you perfect answers. Quantum physics is probabilistic. It only offers hints that can roughly set you in the right direction. It’s a great way to think about investing, where the same distinction applies. Coca-Cola is fighting more than a decade of declining soda sales. Its stock is at an all-time high. Snap has built one of the most viral products of our time. Its stock is down almost 50% in the last six months. Good investing is about more than backing companies that perform well. It’s about backing companies that perform well within the context of the market’s current and future expectations. A company’s performance can be measured precisely. Accounting is exact. Books balance out down to the penny. Calculating and planning a company’s unit economics requires precision. Low-margin businesses require a precise grasp of the business’s cost structure. Bank of America knows exactly what will happen to earnings if 0.01% of borrowers default on their credit cards. Like Newtonian physics. Market expectations aren’t like that. Expectations are moods, and moods, almost by definition, are the gap between what’s happening and how people interpret what’s happening. They resist all attempts to figure them out in ways that make sense. They change constantly, without warning or reason. They can be different for two companies that look identical from the outside. At best, you can measure them with probabilities. Like quantum physics. Not distinguishing between the two in investing is dangerous. There are things we can know and measure perfectly, and things we have to think about probabilistically, if not philosophically. They are different skills that attract different people, many of whom don’t realize the need for an alternative set of thinking. Take future market returns. You only need to know three things to know exactly where stocks are going next: The dividend yield, earnings growth, and the change in valuation multiples. The dividend yield is easy. We can measure it today. Earnings growth is a little trickier, but we can make a decent estimate. What about the change in valuation multiples? God, who knows. If I’m trying to calculate how much stocks will return between now and 2027, I need to know what kind of mood people will be in in 2027. And no reasonable person can claim to do that. I don’t know what kind of mood I’ll be in tonight, let alone 200 million strangers ten years from now. The S&P 500 index earned $100 in profits in the year ended February 2014. The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 2.5% at the time. The index traded for 18.5 times earnings. It earned the same $100 in profits in the year ended March 2017, and the 10-year Treasury bond yielded the same 2.5%. Yet the index traded for 23.9 times earnings. The difference between the two earnings multiples reflects a change in investors’ moods. People felt better about their investments in 2017 than they did in 2014. Why? No one knows. No one can measure. Maybe it was because the pain of the 2008 financial crisis wears off over time. Maybe because more people had jobs. Maybe because the doom-and-gloom forecasts sounded plausible in 2014 but have grown old since then. Or maybe – probably – some unfathomably complex mix of what happens when tens of millions of people try to predict the future based on the unique lens of their own day-to-day experiences and adjust their investments accordingly. Whatever it was, it acts like quantum physics – not only unpredictable but unmeasurable, even if we know what we’re looking at. That’s how markets work. It’s how a lot of things work. Richard Feynman, the physicist, once said: “Nature isn’t [Newtonian] dammit. If you want to make a simulation of nature, you’d better make it quantum.” Albert Einstein spent a lot of his career arguing against quantum theory. It seemed contradictory to everything we thought about physics. “One cannot make a theory out of a lot of ‘maybes’” he once told a group of physicists. “Deep down it is wrong, even if it is empirically and logically right.” “Einstein, I’m ashamed of you,” said physicist Paul Ehrenfest, according to Isaacson’s biography. Fellow physicists said he was being as stubborn as others had been when disputing his theory of relativity. Einstein eventually came around. He nominated the two physicists who devised quantum theory for the Nobel Prize in 1933. He wrote in his nomination: “I am convinced that this theory undoubtedly contains a part of the ultimate truth.” You could, in fact, make a theory out of maybes. The development of quantum physics next to Newtonian physics shows how hard it is to grasp that some things can be measured and are in our control, and somethings can’t, and aren’t. It’s especially hard to grasp when those things are in the same field. The same dissonance affects investors. Accepting that investing is made up of both precise facts and theories of maybes is the hardest thing for investors to grasp. Theories of maybes can often be distilled into probabilities. But this doesn’t solve the problem, because we can’t calculate the probabilities of things we don’t know. The history of markets is, and will always be, the story of things that were unprecedented until they happened. That’s hard to accept if you have a Newtonian physics mind. And many investors do. Getting comfortable with maybe requires two things: Humility, and room for error. Humility that there’s a lot of stuff we can’t know, and room for error to offer the only protection against that uncertainty. It’s the only way to survive in an industry where some of the most important variables can’t be calculated, measured, or fully understood. Newton, interestingly, figured this out. After allegedly losing a fortune investing, he said he could “calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people.&rdquo […]

    • What We're Reading
      on 13th October 2017 at 12:04 am

      A few good articles the Collab team came across this week … Lessons Fred Wilson offers guidance: Most VCs think that the investors in their limited partnership funds are their clients, the people they need to cater to. “That’s wrong. Our customers are the entrepreneurs and the companies they build. Our investors are our shareholders,” he says. “VCs are a service provider to entrepreneurs. We ride their coattails.” Don’t forget the pom-poms before getting on that ride. Demographics Important: The biggest single age cohort today in the U.S. is 26-year-olds, who number 4.8 million, according to Torsten Slok, chief international economist forDeutsche Bank.People 25, 27 and 24 follow close behind, in that order. Many are on the verge of life-defining moments such as choosing a career, buying a house and having children. Publishing On writing a book: Books should be written by missionaries not mercenaries…Given that financial returns for book authors reflects a power law as is the case on most creative endeavors, your motivation for writing a book should not be monetary. Said another way: The only book you should write is the book that is trapped inside of you, banging with both its fists on the inside of your rib cage, demanding to be let out. – Friends How to get people to hate you: Humblebragging The hallmark of someone who wants to boast, but doesn’t want to get caught doing it is the humblebrag. Yes, we get that your Tesla is hard to keep clean on your ranch’s dusty roads. A study by Harvard Business Reviewput it this way: “Despite the belief that combining bragging with complaining or humility confers the benefits of each strategy, we find that humblebragging confers the benefits of neither, instead backfiring because it is seen as insincere.” Issues Good piece on two pressing problems: I think it’s fair to say that capitalism is a petri dish for income inequality. On the other hand, capitalism has done incredible things for our society. How do we square these circles? I don’t know. But unfortunately, the less black and white issues are, the less reasonable people become. Tribalism immediately replaces reason. Future A 1998 interview with Steve Case: Have a good weekend. […]

    • A Decade Watching the Craziest Game
      on 12th October 2017 at 10:56 pm

      Investing is the craziest game I’ve ever seen. It mixes high stakes with strong emotions, intelligence with luck, and long-term innovation with short-term trading. I started writing about investing 10 years ago this week. A few things I’ve learned … I’ve learned that having your views confirmed is a powerful and addictive drug. I’ve learned that most investors have a hard time distinguishing between what happened and what they think should have happened. I’ve learned that not caring about temporary things, and obsessing over permanent things, is underrated. I’ve learned that most risks are overblown, except the ones no one’s talking about. I’ve learned there are two red flags: Beliefs that haven’t changed in 20 years, and beliefs that changed overnight. I’ve learned that good marketing wins in the short run, good products win in the long run. I’ve learned that telling the difference between patience and stubbornness is incredibly hard. I’ve learned that the numbers of words is negatively correlated with the amount of insight. I’ve learned that people can be led to believe and defend anything with the right incentives. I’ve learned that the ability to absorb manageable damage is the key to success for businesses, careers, and investments. I’ve learned that every investor should go to investment conferences, if only to meet 400 other people who look like you, think like you, speak like you, work like you, went to the same as school you, and look at the same data as you, all of whom claim to have an edge over everyone else in the room. I’ve learned great things happen slow, and bad things happen fast, so a narrative of pessimism often accompanies a backdrop of progress. I’ve learned that the need to earn a paycheck can override the desire for intellectual honesty. I’ve learned that cash earns the lowest return but offers the most options, and options can provide the highest long-term returns. I’ve learned that you can increase your reading productivity 100x by asking, “Will I still care about this a year from now?” I’ve learned that dealing with difficult people is an increasingly important skill, as digital communication means we miss nuance that body language used to convey. I’ve learned that doing what everyone else is doing feels like the safest thing to do, but it’s the most competitive, which makes it the riskiest. I’ve learned that student loans can’t be discharged in bankruptcy, gambling losses are tax deductible, and people seem mostly OK with that. I’ve learned there are popular things we will laugh at in a few years, including grocery stores, gas stations, and the expectation of privacy. […]

    • What We're Reading
      on 6th October 2017 at 12:23 pm

      A few good articles the Collab team came across this week … Relationships The loneliness health crisis: When you look at the data, what’s really interesting is loneliness has been found to be associated with a reduction of life span. The reduction in life span [for loneliness] is similar to that caused by smoking 15 cigarettes a day, and it’s greater than the impact on life span of obesity. So if you think about how much we put into curbing tobacco use and obesity, compared to how much effort and resources we put into addressing loneliness, there’s no comparison. Appreciation Real home prices in Sweden: Management This is great, and probably true sometimes: Warren Buffett may have said “when a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact,” but that was clearly before he met Elon Musk. Find a growth company run by a charismatic genius, buy it at any price, and profit. Ownership The value of legacy: People like to complain about their families. But when it comes to making money, it’s the family-owned businesses that seem to be doing it best. … Credit Suisse’s portfolio of family-owned companies have outperformed most other equity markets by an annual average of around 400 basis points per year. Longevity Why cities survive and companies die: The fact that companies scale sublinearly, rather than superlinearly like cities, suggests that they epitomize the triumph of economies of scale over innovation and idea creation. Companies typically operate as highly constrained top-down organizations that strive to increase efficiency of production and minimize operational costs so as to maximize profits. In contrast, cities embody the triumph of innovation over the hegemony of economies of scale. Diversification How Fred Wilson invests: I like a mix of cash (t-bills, money market funds, etc), blue chips stocks (Amazon, Google, etc), real estate (income producing with little to no leverage), and a risk bucket (venture capital, crypto, etc). I think 25% in each would be a good mix. We have more in the risk bucket but I am in the VC business professionally and have been for 30+ years. 25% in each is where I’d like to get to in time. Have a good weekend. […]

    • The Power Law At Work
      on 4th October 2017 at 6:04 pm

      One of Collaborative’s portfolio companies was acquired earlier this year, generating a fantastic return on our investment. For context, we originally invested in the company in its Series A round. In a relatively short timeframe the company was acquired for cash at about 16X the valuation we originally invested at. Our investment was diluted in subsequent financings, which brought our realized return to about 13X. I share this for a few reasons: I’m excited for the founders and team who built the business. They created tremendous value through hard work, and in the face of lots of doubters. As an investor, I’m grateful for the opportunity to be part of their journey. It was a tremendous learning experience. It’s rare for the Collaborative team to celebrate. We operate in a constant state of needing to push harder, trying to earn a better spot, learning how to get better as an investor, frustrated that we missed or passed on a great opportunity. So when an event like this happens, I want to take the opportunity to celebrate the hard work that our team puts in every day. In today’s market, realized returns are rare and deserve a legitimate moment. Normally, I prefer to shy away from touting great financial results. I find the venture industry to be too heavily skewed towards a lot of talking and not enough walking. So our default mode is simply to keep our head down and let our results speak for themselves. But today I am making an exception! This investment required a contrarian view. As a seed-focused firm, we took criticism for investing in the Series A. And for reasons outside of stage, two of the three people on our deal team at the time where against investing. So you can chalk this up as yet another example of when consensus is the enemy of alpha. Venture capital is a weird business. Our model assumes at least 50% of the companies we invest in will go out of business. The only way for a venture capital firm to generate great returns for its investors is to have outcomes that follow the power law curve. Which is what happened with this investment. A few of our investments will drive nearly all of our returns. It’s easy to forget that on a day-to-day, or even year-to-year basis. But occasionally we’re reminded what the hard work of our investment team, and the companies we back, can turn into. […]


    • 30 Years Ago Today
      by Eddy Elfenbein on 19th October 2017 at 5:33 pm

      Thirty years ago today, shares of $AAPL plunged from $1.72 to $1.30 (adjusting for splits). Today, they’re at $155. Berkshire Hathaway fell from $3,890 to […]

    • Q3 2017 Earnings Calendar
      by Eddy Elfenbein on 19th October 2017 at 4:18 pm

      Here’s a list of reporting dates, Wall Street’s consensus estimates and actual reported results: Company Ticker Date Estimate Result Alliance Data Systems ADS 19-Oct $5.04 […]

    • Morning News: October 19, 2017
      by Eddy Elfenbein on 19th October 2017 at 11:05 am

      Could the 1987 Stock Market Crash Happen Again? Zhou Warns China Should Defend Against Threat of ‘Minsky Moment’ Europe’s Fastest-Growing Economy Could Be Headed for […]

    • Finding an Undiscovered Factor
      by Eddy Elfenbein on 18th October 2017 at 5:24 pm

      Here’s the latest entry in Tadas Viskanta’s Blogger Wisdom: Question: Assume you have discovered an equity return factor that is both previously unknown and uncorrelated […]

    • Anthem Goes It Alone
      by Eddy Elfenbein on 18th October 2017 at 5:19 pm

      It’s finally happened, and I didn’t think it would. Anthem has broken with Express Scripts decided to start its own drug plan. Health insurer Anthem […]


    CSSA new concepts in quantitative research

    • Risk Management and Dynamic Beta Podast
      by david varadi on 4th August 2017 at 3:52 pm

      I had the honor of speaking with Mebane Faber of Cambria Investment Management recently where I discussed the topic of risk management and also applying a dynamic beta approach on his widely popular podcast “The Mebane Faber Show”. The interview is almost an hour and covers a wide range of topics whether you are a quant geek like myself […]

    • Welcome QuantX!
      by david varadi on 27th January 2017 at 7:23 pm

      I am very proud to announce that readers can finally have access to products based on many of the quantitative ideas used in the blogosphere and published in academic research. Yesterday we launched five new ETFs through the QuantX Brand (linked to Blue Sky Asset Management).  They provide the building blocks to design customized portfolios […]

    • Tracking the Performance of Tactical Strategies
      by david varadi on 8th September 2016 at 9:03 pm

      There is a cool new website that tracks the performance of well-known tactical strategies. AllocateSmartly  has collected an extensive list of strategies from well-known hedge fund managers like Ray Dalio along with several other portfolio managers and financial bloggers. The backtests for these strategies use a very detailed and comprehensive method that is both conservative […]

    • Book Review: Adaptive Asset Allocation
      by david varadi on 29th February 2016 at 5:34 pm

                                    I recently read “Adaptive Asset Allocation” ( link to the book) by Butler, Philbrick and Gordillo of ReSolve Asset Management.  The book is the culmination of research  developed over the years by the ReSolve team towards the next generation approach of dynamic […]

    • Volatility Futures and S&P500 Performance
      by david varadi on 23rd February 2016 at 5:12 pm

        We wrote a more quant-friendly  article on volatility futures and their impact on S&P500 performance recently on our blog for Blue Sky Asset Management. We will be dedicating a section of the blog specifically for more technical articles. This is the first of many that we have planned in the coming months so stay tuned for […]


    Derek Hernquist Just another WordPress site

    • Why Active OR Passive?
      by Derek on 6th September 2014 at 3:23 pm

      “Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others” Winston Churchill Not sure if it’s me, or the bull market, but the passive>active […] The post Why Active OR Passive? appeared first on Derek Hernquist. […]

    • A New “Trend” For Me
      by Derek on 20th July 2014 at 3:22 pm

      “I believe that understanding what is good is obtained by looking at the way the world works and operating in harmony with it to help […] The post A New “Trend” For Me appeared first on Derek Hernquist. […]

    • Play Ball!
      by Derek on 10th May 2014 at 1:31 pm

      “Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains.”  Crash Davis Fridays are my son’s baseball practices. We need the field time, with last weekend’s […] The post Play Ball! appeared first on Derek Hernquist. […]

    • The Only Truth in Markets is Surprise
      by Derek on 26th April 2014 at 12:58 pm

      “Blessed is he who expects nothing, for he shall never be disappointed.” Alexander Pope That phrase has stuck since I was a kid, written under […] The post The Only Truth in Markets is Surprise appeared first on Derek Hernquist. […]

    • I Have No Idea What Tesla is Worth, Do You?
      by Derek on 5th March 2014 at 4:24 pm

      “Where can I get into this trend at a low risk spot?” Brian Shannon This is a little late, but having made some notes from […] The post I Have No Idea What Tesla is Worth, Do You? appeared first on Derek Hernquist. […]


    Dragonfly Capital What the Charts are Saying about the Market


    The Evidence-Based Investor Buffett and Bogle are right — the best way to invest is to buy and hold a low-cost and highly diversified portfolio of assets for a very long time.

    • Anyone brave enough to bet against Buffett next time?
      by Robin Powell on 16th October 2017 at 4:54 pm

      It’s a pleasure to be invited once again to contribute to Tadas Viskanta’s Blogger Wisdom series. For those who aren’t aware of him, Tadas is, in my view, the best curator of intelligent content on investing and personal finance, bar none. If his site, Abnormal Returns, isn’t already on your bookmarks bar, it should be. […] The post Anyone brave enough to bet against Buffett next time? appeared first on The Evidence-Based Investor. […]

    • Paul Armson: Advisers have been brainwashed for 30 years
      by Robin Powell on 12th October 2017 at 6:13 pm

      Among the UK financial advice profession, Paul Armson falls into the Marmite category. (For the benefit of readers beyond these shores, Marmite is a sticky, dark brown spread with a  rather distinctive taste, and is best known for its manufacturer’s marketing slogan, “love it or hate it”). I happen to be in the “love” camp, at […] The post Paul Armson: Advisers have been brainwashed for 30 years appeared first on The Evidence-Based Investor. […]

    • Can you improve returns without increasing risk?
      by Robin Powell on 11th October 2017 at 8:40 am

      One of the most important concepts for investors to understand is the link between risk and return. Generally speaking, the greater the risk you’re willing to take, the higher you can expect your long-term returns to be, as long as you’re willing to accept more volatility along the way. But is it possible to increase […] The post Can you improve returns without increasing risk? appeared first on The Evidence-Based Investor. […]

    • Dave Nadig on the extraordinary growth of ETFs (Podcast)
      by Robin Powell on 10th October 2017 at 2:23 pm

      Even those with a only a passing interest in investing can’t have failed to notice the extraordinary rise in recent years of ETFs.  Exchange traded funds now account for around $4.3 trillion of global assets under management  — up $1 trillion on this time last year. And although the pace of new product launches has slowed, […] The post Dave Nadig on the extraordinary growth of ETFs (Podcast) appeared first on The Evidence-Based Investor. […]

    • EBI lets advisers focus on what really matters
      by Robin Powell on 6th October 2017 at 9:33 am

      It does amaze me that, even now, there are still so few financial advice firms using an evidence-based investment philosophy. I’ve written on this blog several times about why I think that is. One of the reasons — and I know this because they tell me — is that they’re worried that if they recommend using index […] The post EBI lets advisers focus on what really matters appeared first on The Evidence-Based Investor. […]


    • The September to Remember
      by sidoxia on 2nd October 2017 at 8:08 pm

      This article is an excerpt from a previously released Sidoxia Capital Management complimentary newsletter (October 2, 2017). Subscribe on the right side of the page for the complete text. Given the volume of recent memorable events, it appears September will become a month to remember. Not only did we witness horrific natural disasters in Texas, […]

    • Hurricane & Political Surprises as Dow Rises
      by sidoxia on 1st September 2017 at 8:59 pm

      This article is an excerpt from a previously released Sidoxia Capital Management complimentary newsletter (September 1, 2017). Subscribe on the right side of the page for the complete text. It was a tumultuous month politically, economically, and meteorologically. The devastating destruction left in the wake of Hurricane Harvey’s 130 mile per hour winds and 50+ […]

    • The Summer Heats Up
      by sidoxia on 1st August 2017 at 7:16 pm

      This article is an excerpt from a previously released Sidoxia Capital Management complimentary newsletter (August 1, 2017). Subscribe on the right side of the page for the complete text. The temperature in the stock market heated up again this month. Like a hot day at the beach, the Dow Jones Industrial Average stock index burned […]

    • Stirring the Sentiment Tea Leaves Redux
      by sidoxia on 24th July 2017 at 7:10 pm

      Despite the Volatility Index (VIX) currently operating at the low end of historical ranges (9.36), the equity markets operate on a perpetual volatility rollercoaster. This period of relative calm has not stopped participants from searching for the Holy Grail of indicators in hopes of determining whether the next large move in the markets is upwards or […]

    • A Recipe for Disaster
      by sidoxia on 15th July 2017 at 6:54 am

      Justice does not always get served in the stock market because financial markets are not always efficient in the short-run (see Black-Eyes to Classic Economists). However, over the long-run, financial markets usually get it right. And when the laws of economics and physics are functioning properly, I must admit it, I do find it especially […]


    The Investor's Field Guide A Journey Through the Stock Market Jungle

    • Grand Theft Life, With Tim Urban – [Invest Like the Best, EP.59]
      by Patrick O'Shaughnessy on 17th October 2017 at 12:06 pm

      This week’s conversation is about artificial intelligence and interplanetary travel. Its about content creation, thinking from first principles, and death progress units. Its about brain machine interfaces and why it is crucial that you be a chef and not a cook. My guest is Tim Urban, along with his business partner Andrew Finn. Tim is... […]

    • Hash Power – Ep. 3 – Funding, Forking, and Our Creative Future
      by Patrick O'Shaughnessy on 10th October 2017 at 10:00 am

      Welcome to the final episode of Hash Power, an audio documentary that explores the world of blockchain and cryptocurrencies.  This concluding episode is about how blockchains may shape our future, allowing unique methods of fundraising, and experimentation through forking. Episodes 1 and 2, on understanding blockchains and cryptocurrency investing, are also available now. PRESENTED BY Be sure to... […]

    • Hash Power – Ep.2 – Cryptocurrency Investing
      by Patrick O'Shaughnessy on 3rd October 2017 at 10:10 am

      In episode two of Hash Power, we spend time with the leading investors in the field. Like any frenzied asset class, there are countless cryptocurrency hedge funds popping up everywhere. But founders from three of the original firms—Polychain, Metastable, and BlockTower Capital—are our primary guides this week. Episode one, on understanding blockchain technology, is available... […]

    • Hash Power – A Documentary on Blockchains & Cryptocurrencies
      by Patrick O'Shaughnessy on 26th September 2017 at 10:30 am

      Welcome Hash Power, an audio documentary that explores the world of blockchain and cryptocurrencies with leaders in the field including Naval Ravikant, Olaf Carlson-Wee, Fred Ehrsam, Ari Paul, Juan Benet, Muneeb Ali, Peter Van Valkenburgh, Jeremiah Lowin, Jameson Lopp, Jordan Cooper, Josh Seims, & Charlie Noyes. PRESENTED BY Hash Power is meant to be an... […]

    • Tech Investing Outside of Silicon Valley, w/ David Tisch – [Invest Like the Best, EP.55]
      by Patrick O'Shaughnessy on 19th September 2017 at 10:00 am

      My guest this week is David Tisch, who was instrumental in building and fostering venture capital investing in New York City. If you liked my conversation with Jerry Neumann–who, incidentally, introduced me to David–you are going to love this one. David was a co-founder at tech stars, New York’s answer to Silicon Valley’s famous tech incubator Y Combinator.... […]


    • The Best Performing ETFs Year-To-Date
      by Ivanhoff on 6th October 2017 at 2:21 pm

      Contrary to the popular opinion, the best performing ETF year-to-date is not the inverse short-term VIX ETN, XIV. A brief glance at the best performing ETFs so far this year doesn’t only tell you what has been working – in this case, biotech, China, emerging markets, and semiconductors. It also gives you a hint of … Continue reading "The Best Performing ETFs Year-To-Date" […]

    • Online Travel Agency Stocks Are Waking Up
      by Ivanhoff on 4th October 2017 at 2:17 pm

      After spending the last five months going nowhere, CTRP, PCLN, and EXPE are trying to retake their 50-day moving averages. Relatively high short interest, strong earnings growth, a bull market, and a long technical base might be the recipe for a run in the fourth quarter. […]

    • Financial Markets Are Often Forward-Looking
      by Ivanhoff on 14th September 2017 at 6:48 pm

      The stock market often discounts events that haven’t happened yet. As a result, it sometimes discounts events that will never happen. Other times, it will predict and influence the future with uncanny accuracy. Prices change when expectations for future profits change. Expectations often change before fundamentals change. Take NVDA, for example. It went from $20 to … Continue reading "Financial Markets Are Often Forward-Looking" […]

    • Better To Be Lucky Than Good, Right?
      by Ivanhoff on 20th August 2017 at 1:44 am

      Extremely successful people like to play humble and say they have been very lucky in so many aspects of life. But how much of the so-called luck is actually self-made and how much is a random occurrence, a destiny, if you will? Yes, there are people who hit the lottery. There are people who are … Continue reading "Better To Be Lucky Than Good, Right?" […]

    • The Future of Tesla
      by Ivanhoff on 16th August 2017 at 5:40 pm

        Toyota averages about $2,700 earnings per car by making 10.2 million vehicles per year. Ford earns about $1000 per car by producing about 6.4 million vehicles per year. Porsche earns about 17,000 by making about 225k cars per year Tesla made 84k vehicles in 2016. The price tag of most of them is 80-120k. … Continue reading "The Future of Tesla" […]


    Blog | Jason Zweig A safe haven for investors by Jason Zweig of The Wall Street Journal.


    Joe Fahmy The Next Big Move

    • Weekend VIDEO: Index Review, Sector Review, and More 10/14/17
      by jfahmy on 15th October 2017 at 4:13 am

      The purpose of this video is to share some of my experiences from 20 years of trading, provide education and market commentary. If you have any questions, you can email me directly at jfahmy@zorcapital.com. Thank you for watching and good luck trading! Charts are provided by MarketSmith. To learn more or for a trial, click [...] The post Weekend VIDEO: Index Review, Sector Review, and More 10/14/17 appeared first on Joe Fahmy. […]

    • Three Reasons for the Strength in Biotech
      by jfahmy on 10th October 2017 at 12:22 pm

      I screen the market every night looking for strong fundamental and technical stocks. One thing I try to identify is themes and leading sectors. Over the past two months, I have noticed more and more Biotech stocks showing up on my screens. Not only are they setting up technically, but they are also breaking out [...] The post Three Reasons for the Strength in Biotech appeared first on Joe Fahmy. […]

    • Weekend VIDEO: More Sectors Participating 10/8/17
      by jfahmy on 9th October 2017 at 6:41 am

      The purpose of this video is to share some of my experiences from 20 years of trading, provide education and market commentary. If you have any questions, you can email me directly at jfahmy@zorcapital.com. Thank you for watching and good luck trading! Charts are provided by MarketSmith. To learn more or for a trial, click [...] The post Weekend VIDEO: More Sectors Participating 10/8/17 appeared first on Joe Fahmy. […]

    • Weekend VIDEO: Sentiment Running Hot 10/1/17
      by jfahmy on 1st October 2017 at 12:17 pm

      The purpose of this video is to share some of my experiences from 20 years of trading, provide education and market commentary. If you have any questions, you can email me directly at jfahmy@zorcapital.com. Thank you for watching and good luck trading! Charts are provided by MarketSmith. To learn more or for a trial, click [...] The post Weekend VIDEO: Sentiment Running Hot 10/1/17 appeared first on Joe Fahmy. […]

    • Educational VIDEO: Market Tops And Crashes
      by jfahmy on 1st October 2017 at 1:49 am

      The purpose of this video is to share some of my experiences from 20 years of trading, provide education and market commentary. If you have any questions, you can email me directly at jfahmy@zorcapital.com. Thank you for watching and good luck trading! Charts are provided by MarketSmith. To learn more or for a trial, click [...] The post Educational VIDEO: Market Tops And Crashes appeared first on Joe Fahmy. […]


    QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH AND TRADING The latest theories, models and investment strategies in quantitative research and trading

    • Systematic Futures Trading
      by Jonathan on 16th October 2017 at 3:34 pm

      In its proprietary trading, Systematic Strategies primary focus in on equity and volatility strategies, both low and high frequency. In futures, the emphasis is on high frequency trading, although we also run one or two lower frequency strategies that have higher capacity, such as the Futures WealthBuilder. The version of WealthBuilder running on the Collective... The post Systematic Futures Trading appeared first on QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH AND TRADING. […]

    • Protected: Systematic Strategies Fund – Sept 2017
      by Jonathan on 2nd October 2017 at 6:22 pm

      There is no excerpt because this is a protected post. The post Protected: Systematic Strategies Fund – Sept 2017 appeared first on QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH AND TRADING. […]

    • Analyzing the FDIC Dataset
      by Jonathan on 2nd October 2017 at 1:23 pm

      The post Analyzing the FDIC Dataset appeared first on QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH AND TRADING. […]

    • A Winer Process
      by Jonathan on 25th September 2017 at 7:47 am

      No doubt many of you sharp-eyed readers will have spotted a spelling error, thinking I intended to refer to one of these:   But, in fact, I really did have in mind something more like this:     We are following an example from the recently published Mathematica Beyond Mathematics by Jose Sanchez Leon, an up-to-date text that... The post A Winer Process appeared first on QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH AND TRADING. […]

    • The Story of a HFT Strategy
      by Jonathan on 11th September 2017 at 1:47 pm

      The post The Story of a HFT Strategy appeared first on QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH AND TRADING. […]


    Marginal REVOLUTION Small Steps Toward A Much Better World

    • The topology culture that is Slovenia (who’s complacent?)
      by Tyler Cowen on 19th October 2017 at 5:36 pm

      A Slovenian artist breastfed her dogs and fertilized one of her eggs with a dog cell as part of an award-winning three-month art project. She also produced a video documenting the creative process behind the bizarre venture. Maja Smrekar lived in seclusion with her dogs as part of the lengthy artistic experiment, which was titled […] The post The topology culture that is Slovenia (who’s complacent?) appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. […]

    • *The Fate of Rome*
      by Tyler Cowen on 19th October 2017 at 3:21 pm

      That is the new and very important book by Kyle Harper, with the subtitle Climate, Disease, & the End of an Empire.  I am just reading through this now, but it appears to be an significant revision of our views on the decline of Rome.  p.21 offers a capsule summary, which I will summarize in […] The post *The Fate of Rome* appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. […]

    • The polity that is New Zealand
      by Tyler Cowen on 19th October 2017 at 11:54 am

      Sometimes proportional representation systems throw up surprising results, as they just did in New Zealand.  National won the biggest share of the vote at 44%, but the new government is a coalition between Winston Peters and Jacinda Ardern: Ardern’s stunning popularity was dismissed as “stardust” by English, but she went on to experience huge support […] The post The polity that is New Zealand appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. […]

    • Thursday assorted links
      by Tyler Cowen on 19th October 2017 at 9:07 am

      1. “The fast food chain has recently introduced mobile phone lockers in one of its branches in Singapore, encouraging diners to take a break from the virtual world and have real conversations over meals.” 2. DEDCC[octave lower]G. 3. The bestselling musical artists of all time? 4. Panasonic moving fridge, comes to you when called. 5. […] The post Thursday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. […]

    • Email exchange on bank leverage, regulation, and economic growth
      by Tyler Cowen on 19th October 2017 at 4:43 am

      Emailed to me: What do you think would happen if we returned to a world where commercial bank leverage was much reduced? (E.g. 2X max.) Or, maybe equivalently, if central banks didn’t act as a lender of last resort? Is that “necessary” for a modern economy? Asset prices would fall a lot (presumably). What else? […] The post Email exchange on bank leverage, regulation, and economic growth appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. […]


    Behavioral Macro Mark Dow’s microblog, analyzing global macroeconomic and market issues, often through the prism of our cognitive shortcomings

    • Emerging Market Currencies: Size it Right, Sit Tight
      on 4th September 2017 at 3:58 pm

      We are probably still in the sweet spot for the emerging market cycle. This doesn’t exempt us from the risk of corrections. It doesn’t eliminate geopolitical flare ups, trade war rhetoric, or the macro scare du jour. And it doesn’t make September/October calendar effects any less scary. But it does mean if you are an investor the wise choice is to stay in, stay the course.(Pro memoria: the dominant error in professional investing is over-forecasting corrections and then chasing bull markets from a position of weakness.)I’ve given the reasoning for this view here, here, and here. And my broader views on central banks and currency markets are laid out here. Basically, it all boils down to:1.       At this point in the global risk cycle the US looks mature and investors go abroad2.       The Fed is closer to its terminal policy rate than expected; other CBs are at the front end of their normalization processes3.       Investors desperately need yield, and emerging market currencies have it4.       Country differentiation is less important than asset allocation  And demand is strong. I continue to hear of managers wanting to get into the space and/or increase their allocation, while, as PIMCO points out, local markets deepen.Technically, the picture is strong. USDTRY and USDCLP have already broken down. It is likely that currency pairs like USDMXN, USDBRL and USDINR are to follow. Here are the charts:Turkish LiraChilean PesoMexican PesoBrazilian RealIndian Ru […]

    • Sorry for Being the Bearer of Good News
      on 8th August 2017 at 3:27 pm

      I have a childhood friend who loves to rant and complain so much that I jokingly preface giving him good news with an apology. The market feels very much like this right now. The overwhelming sentiment is “cautious”, “we are due”, “valuations are unsustainably high”.But the truth is our collective memory of the GFC has made sentiment a countercyclical stabilizer, stretching out both the financial risk cycle and the economic cycle. Every time we get a little confident or frothy, the scolds come out and remind us of our ‘irresponsibility’ and we all slow our roll for a little while and digest gains. When you think the rest of the world is now going thru the same, drawn out, semi-deleveraging lower-for-longer recovery we experienced–which keeps a damper on our speed limit as well–begrudging good news could go on for a long, long tim […]

    • Credit Spreads and Sticker Shock
      on 31st July 2017 at 3:48 pm

      Credit managers have been suffering for years now. Yeah, I know that sounds strange given the run credit markets have had. But the truth is they’ve been suffering from sticker shock since 2011. “But what can I buy at these levels?” has been their constant refrain. Many have been underperforming their benchmarks and bogeys for years.How did they fall into this trap? Start with the chart of the BBB spread over the last 15 years. Credit managers have anchored on spread levels and yields from the strong phase of the last risk cycle, 2004-2007. Spreads then were 110-130bps. Today they are 138bps. Five-year BBB yields then were 5-6%, whereas today they are 3-3.5%. Credit managers have been forced into chasing yields lower and lower for the last 5 years.What they’ve been overlooking is the risk free rate. The 5 year risk free rate averaged around 4% from 2004-2007, and now we are at 1.8%. If you look at how much risk-free yield (opportunity cost) you are giving up to collect extra spread, it becomes obvious that a spread of 138bps is far, far cheaper when the risk free rate is at 1.8% than when it is 4%. Spread-to-spread comparisons just don’t make sense. Yet that’s what we keep hearing. It’s kind of shocking, really, how many professional managers–especially those with a lot of experience, paradoxically–have been blinded to this simple but powerful consideration.The TL;DR: Credit markets aren’t as rich as you might have thought, and in any event, the credit cycle is likely to end around the time the economic cycle in the US turns, irrespective of valuations. […]

    • Mexican Peso, Brazilian Real, and the EM risk Cycle
      on 31st July 2017 at 12:24 pm

      The forward points on BRL and MXN show, approximately, a 6% breakeven depreciation over the next 12 months. Or, in other word, 6% carry. If you believe emerging markets are in the early phases of the same kind of slow, muddle-through recovery we have seen in the US and increasingly Europe, it is hard to imagine spot underperforming the forwards as a longer-term investment proposition. This is the phase of the global risk cycle where the desire for returns is very high but the forward-looking scope for returns in the US market appears limited.It also looks to me as though there is still tons of scope for further “normalization” from the unwind of the EM bear market. NB: This blog is currently unlocked. It will convert to locked, accessible to @BehavioralMacro subscribers through PremoSocial, in the near future. […]

    • Quick Thought on Oil Stocks
      on 31st July 2017 at 12:15 pm

      Up until recently oil stocks have been about playing/gaming some type of normalization from the 2014-15 crash. Mostly, repeated attempts at knife catching. Over this past month or two it seems investors are finally looking a little beyond this and starting to price in the secular challenges facing global oil supply & demand. 1.       Electric car dominance is no longer a question of “if”.2.       The fuel intensity of global growth continues to decline, as emerging economies catch up with the well-established trends in the advanced ones.3.       Extraction technologies have become vastly more productive and less expansive. From an investment standpoint, this is a headwind—whether the price of oil is rising or not. If the price of oil were to rise, no doubt oil stocks would also, just probably with a lower beta to it. It makes the sector a much less attractive risk-reward proposition, despite how beaten up it has been. NB: This blog is currently unlocked. It will convert to locked, accessible to @BehavioralMacro subscribers through PremoSocial, in the near future.&nbs […]


    market folly Tracking top hedge funds since 2008

    • Hedge Fund Links ~ 10/13/17
      by marketfolly@gmail.com (Market Folly) on 13th October 2017 at 5:05 pm

      Hedge funds ain't dead yet [WSJ]Hedge funds dabbling in more obscure markets [WSJ]Mark Yusko wanted to do round 2 of Buffett vs hedge funds bet [CNBC]Warren Buffett decides not to do second wager against hedge funds [CNBC]Nope, hedge funds are still in the dumper [Bloomberg]Baupost one of the larger holders of Puerto Rican debt [The Intercept]Man Group letting computers trade all on their own [CNBC]Down $240 million on his 7-year short, a China bear gives in [Bloomberg]Sun co-founder gets secretive hedge fund to make huge chip bet [Bloomberg]Man starting world's biggest crypto fund calls bitcoin a bubble [Bloomberg […]

    • Carl Icahn's Herbalife Ownership Increases Due To Company Buyback
      by marketfolly@gmail.com (Market Folly) on 12th October 2017 at 5:18 pm

      Activist investor Carl Icahn has filed an amended 13D regarding his position in Herbalife (HLF).  Per the filing, Icahn now owns 26.22% of the company.  This is up from his previous ownership stake of 24%, but it's not due to him buying more shares.  He still retains the same amount as he previously did: 22.87 million shares.Herbalife recently announced results from its self-tender offer to buy around $600 million of its own stock.  It accepted over 6.73 million shares at $68 per share.Sellers of stock received a contingent value right (CVR) for each share tendered that provides a right to payment should the company be taken private in the next two years.  After the tender completes, HLF will have around 87 million shares outstanding.As a result, Icahn's ownership percentage increased without him doing anything. And as we've highlighted previously,  Bill Ackman continues to be short Herbalife as well.Per Google Finance, Herbalife Ltd. is "a global nutrition company. The Company develops and sells weight management, healthy meals and snacks, sports and fitness, energy and targeted nutritional products, as well as personal care products. Its operating segments are based on geographical operations in six regions: North America; Mexico; South and Central America; Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA); Asia Pacific, and China. The Company categorizes its products into five groups: weight management, targeted nutrition, energy, sports and fitness, outer nutrition, and literature, promotional and other. As of December 31, 2016, it marketed and sold approximately 140 products encompassing over 4,700 stock keeping units (SKUs) globally. Its product categories include meal replacement; protein shakes; drink mixes; dietary and nutritional supplements containing herbs, vitamins, minerals and other natural ingredients; facial skin care; body care; hair care products; sales tools, and educational materials." […]

    • Viking Global Shows Deciphera Pharmaceuticals Stake
      by marketfolly@gmail.com (Market Folly) on 12th October 2017 at 5:09 pm

      Andreas Halvorsen's hedge fund firm Viking Global has filed a 13G with the SEC regarding shares of Deciphera Pharmaceuticals (DCPH).  Per the filing, Viking now owns 8.1% of the company with over 2.47 million shares.This is a newly disclosed public equity stake for the hedge fund, however Viking had previously invested privately in the company via Series C financing.  The filing was made due to portfolio activity on October 2nd as the company just completed its initial public offering (IPO).For more from this hedge fund, we've posted up some other recent portfolio activity from Viking Global here.Per Google Finance, Deciphera Pharmaceuticals is "a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. The Company is developing drugs to improve the lives of cancer patients. Its drug candidate includes DCC-2618, DCC-3014 and Rebastinib. Its proprietary kinase switch control inhibitor platform, inhibit the activation of kinases. DCC-2618, an orally administered kinase switch control inhibitor, for the treatment of gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST), advanced systemic mastocytosis (ASM), gliomas, including glioblastoma multiforme (GBM), and other solid tumors driven by pan-KIT or PDGFR alpha. DCC-3014 is an orally administered, potent and highly selective inhibitor of colony stimulating factor receptor 1 (CSF1R). Rebastinib is an orally administered, potent and selective inhibitor of the TIE2 immunokinase. Rebastinib binds potently into the switch pocket of TIE2, stabilizing the inhibitory switch and displacing the activation switch to block TIE2 signaling." […]

    • What We're Reading ~ 10/11/17
      by marketfolly@gmail.com (Market Folly) on 11th October 2017 at 5:22 pm

      Richard Thaler wins Nobel Prize for work on behavioral economics [NYTimes]Thaler's book: Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics [Richard Thaler]His other book, Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness [Richard Thaler]Warren Buffett bets on the fossil fuel highway [WSJ]Victoria's Secret is on the right runway [Bloomberg]Decoding the Chinese internet market [Slideshare]A new round in the battle of the brands [Harding Loevner]As goes the middle class, so goes TGI Fridays [Eater] The thrill of losing money investing in a Manhattan restaurant [New Yorker […]

    • ValueAct Capital Pares Down Willis Towers Watson Stake Again
      by marketfolly@gmail.com (Market Folly) on 11th October 2017 at 5:18 pm

      Jeff Ubben's activist investment firm ValueAct Capital has filed a Form 4 with the SEC regarding its position in Willis Towers Watson (WLTW). We've highlighted previously how ValueAct has been trimming its WLTW stake and that trend continues.This time around, the hedge fund sold 8,118 WLTW shares on October 6th at a price of $156.06.  After this sale, they're left owning 2.97 million shares.This firm has been quite busy as of late and we also posted about another stock ValueAct has been trimming. Per Google Finance, Willis Towers Watson "operates as a global advisory, broking and solutions company. It is engaged in offering risk management, insurance broking, consulting, technology and solutions, and private exchanges. The Company operates through eight segments: Willis International; Willis North America; Willis Capital, Wholesale & Reinsurance (CWR); Willis GB; Towers Watson Benefits; Towers Watson Exchange Solutions; Towers Watson Risk and Financial Services; and Towers Watson Talent and Rewards. The Willis GB segment comprises four business units: Property and Casualty, Transport, Financial Lines and Retail Networks. The Willis Capital Wholesale and Reinsurance segment includes Willis Re; Willis Capital Markets & Advisory; Willis' wholesale business, and Willis Portfolio Underwriting Services. The Willis North America segment provides risk management, insurance brokerage and related risk services." […]


    Meb Faber Research – Stock Market and Investing Blog Stock Market and Investing Blog of Meb Faber

    • Episode #76: Phil DeMuth, “Nothing in My Global Outlook is Telling Me It’s Time to Pull Up the Anchor and Set Sail”
      by Meb Faber on 18th October 2017 at 5:01 pm

      Episode #76: “Nothing in My Global Outlook is Telling Me It’s Time to Pull Up the Anchor and Set Sail”     Guest: Phil DeMuth. Phil is Managing Director at Conservative Wealth Management. A psychologist and investment advisor, Phil has written for the Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, Forbes, the Journal of Financial Planning, Human Behavior and Psychology Today, and … Continued The post Episode #76: Phil DeMuth, “Nothing in My Global Outlook is Telling Me It’s Time to Pull Up the Anchor and Set Sail” appeared first on Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog. […]

    • Episode #75: Michael McDaniel, “One of the Biggest Conditions that Will Lead to Success is Simply Being Invested” 
      by Meb Faber on 11th October 2017 at 5:11 pm

      Episode #75: “One of the Biggest Conditions that Will Lead to Success is Simply Being Invested”      Guest: Michael McDaniel. Mike is the CIO and co-founder of Riskalyze. In 2005, he founded McDaniel Wealth Management, an investment advisory firm with a unique perspective on risk management. More recently, the firm has completed a transition … Continued The post Episode #75: Michael McDaniel, “One of the Biggest Conditions that Will Lead to Success is Simply Being Invested”  appeared first on Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog. […]

    • Tweets of the Week
      by Meb Faber on 8th October 2017 at 7:00 pm

      [View the story “Tweets of the Week” on Storify] The post Tweets of the Week appeared first on Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog. […]

    • Episode #74: Jeff Sherman, “There’s This ‘Buy-the-Dip’ Mentality… Do You Play in It, or Just Shake Your Head?”
      by Meb Faber on 4th October 2017 at 5:06 pm

      Episode #74: “There’s This ‘Buy-the-Dip’ Mentality… Do You Play in It, or Just Shake Your Head?”      Guest: Jeffrey Sherman. Jeff is the Deputy Chief Investment Officer at DoubleLine and is a member of DoubleLine’s Executive Management and Fixed Income Asset Allocation Committees. He additionally, serves as a portfolio manager for derivative-based and multi-asset … Continued The post Episode #74: Jeff Sherman, “There’s This ‘Buy-the-Dip’ Mentality… Do You Play in It, or Just Shake Your Head?” appeared first on Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog. […]

    • Tweets of the Week
      by Meb Faber on 28th September 2017 at 10:43 pm

      [View the story “Tweets of the Week” on Storify] The post Tweets of the Week appeared first on Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog. […]



      Monevator Make more money, invest profitably, retire early


      Blog – PensionPartners.com The ATAC Rotation Manager

      • The Year Volatility Died
        by Charlie Bilello on 14th October 2017 at 3:54 am

        When it comes to market volatility, how low is low? Before 2017, a close below 10 in the Volatility Index (VIX) was an extremely a rare event. It had only happened 9 times since 1990 out of 6,804 trading days. This is equivalent to 1 day every 3 years, or 0.13% of the time. A […]

      • Bull Market Aphorisms
        by Charlie Bilello on 10th October 2017 at 4:51 pm

        Aphorisms in the Year of the Bull (2017)… Buy in May and Stay Leveraged Long Buy the Rumor, Buy the News Buy the Dip, Buy the Rip Be Greedy When Others Are Greedy Bulls Make Money, Bullish Pigs Make More Money Rule No. 1: Never Go Short. Rule No. 2: Never Forget Rule No. 1 […]

      • When Mean Reversion Fails
        by Charlie Bilello on 9th October 2017 at 10:58 pm

        Are equities overvalued? Is the economic expansion long in the tooth? — In attempting to answer these questions, we often look to averages: -What is the average valuation? -What is the average length of an expansion? We then take the present environment and compare that to the average past to make definitive statements about the […]

      • Is the S&P the New Money Market?
        by Charlie Bilello on 2nd October 2017 at 5:36 pm

        “October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate on stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February.” – Mark Twain The words “dangerous” and “stocks” used to be synonymous. That equities were a risky investment was a given. All that seems to have changed. […]

      • September 2017 Markets Webinar – Replay and Slides
        by Charlie Bilello on 28th September 2017 at 9:32 pm

        Click link below for slides: Pension Partners – Myths Markets Webinar – September 2017 Webinar Replay: This webinar is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation regarding any securities transaction, or as an offer to provide advisory or other services by Pension Partners, […]


      Price Action Lab Blog Premium Market Analysis

      • Lessons From The October 1987 Stock Market Crash
        by Michael Harris on 17th October 2017 at 8:39 am

        A few charts and lessons from the most dramatic crash in the history of the stock market, actually a 25-sigma event as shown below. I was a graduate student at Columbia university when the stock market crashed on October 19, … Continue reading →Lessons From The October 1987 Stock Market Crash was originally published on Price Action Lab Blog […]

      • Weekly Market Analysis – October 16, 2017 [Premium Articles]
        by Price Action Lab on 15th October 2017 at 12:27 pm

        The new format of weekly premium market analysis gives more emphasis to quantitative analysis and includes a market recap with commentary, ETF analysis, breadth indicators, weekly mean-reversion signals and directional probabilities based on machine learning for large cap stocks. For … Continue reading →Weekly Market Analysis – October 16, 2017 [Premium Articles] was originally published on Price Action Lab Blog […]

      • Expected Stock Market Correction Levels [Premium Articles]
        by Price Action Lab on 14th October 2017 at 2:24 pm

        This indicator measures the expected correction level of the S&P 500 assuming that it will not turn into a bear market but the uptrend will resume. For access to premium content, you must be a subscriber. Please login if you … Continue reading →Expected Stock Market Correction Levels [Premium Articles] was originally published on Price Action Lab Blog […]

      • “Dow is Overbought” Is More Bullish Than Bearish
        by Michael Harris on 14th October 2017 at 12:41 pm

        The Dow Jones Industrial Average has been in overbought territory since the first trading day of this month and for a total of 10 days, according to a popular technical analysis indicator. But usually overbought conditions occur along uptrends. Below … Continue reading →“Dow is Overbought” Is More Bullish Than Bearish was originally published on Price Action Lab Blog […]

      • Evaluation Of New DLPAL Clusters For Feature Generation
        by Price Action Lab on 13th October 2017 at 1:49 pm

        We evaluate the performance of two new clusters implemented in DLPAL LS for feature generation. We find that the new clusters can lead to increased performance. Especially one of these new clusters appears quite promising. DLPAL LS is a software … Continue reading →Evaluation Of New DLPAL Clusters For Feature Generation was originally published on Price Action Lab Blog […]


      Quantifiable Edges » Blog Assessing Market Action With Indicators & History

      • October Opex Week Historically Bullish
        by Rob Hanna on 16th October 2017 at 4:24 am

        Option expiration week is often a pretty good week for the market. October is one of those months where it has been especially good over the years. This can be seen in the study below. I decided to exclude 2008 because action that week was such an incredible outlier that it greatly skewed all the […]

      • The Persistent Move Higher In The Russell 2000
        by Rob Hanna on 11th October 2017 at 11:13 am

        The persistency of the move higher is very impressive. For instance, the Russell 2000 has now finished in the top 20% of its moving 10-day range for 22 trading days in a row. That is over a month. I looked back at other times this has happened. Below is a list of all prior instances […]

      • When Months Finish At A High
        by Rob Hanna on 2nd October 2017 at 1:25 pm

        Turn of the month will often trigger some seasonal studies. The study below looks at performance after times that SPY has closed a month at the highest closing price of the month. The numbers across the board are fairly compelling. Trades may want to keep this in mind as we enter October.   Want research […]

      • The Weakest Week (Updated)
        by Rob Hanna on 17th September 2017 at 8:02 pm

        From a seasonality standpoint, there isn’t a more reliable time of the year to have a selloff than this upcoming week. In the past I have referred to is as “The Weakest Week”. Since 1961 the week following the 3rd Friday in September has produced the most bearish results of any week. Below is a […]

      • Two Unfilled Gaps Up & A 50-Day High
        by Rob Hanna on 13th September 2017 at 12:15 pm

        It is notable that Wednesday was the 2nd day in a row with an unfilled up gap. The study below appeared in the Quantifinder last night, and has been updated with current stats. It examined other times SPY left 2 unfilled up gaps and closed at a 50-day high. The size of the follow-through isn’t […]


      • Indexing; Valid But Flawed
        by Roger Nusbaum on 18th October 2017 at 8:14 pm

        My latest post for Alpha Baskets is published and is a two-fer that includes the following; And speaking of behaviors, by now you know that Richard Thaler, a very well regarded behavioral economist won the Nobel Prize in economics. I got to e-meet Dr. Thaler on an AdvisorShares AlphaCall a couple of years ago. Most […]

      • FOMC Divergence
        by Roger Nusbaum on 16th October 2017 at 10:50 pm

        The weekly Market Update is posted at Alpha Baskets and includes the following; The cryptocurrency sphere was buzzing last week as Bitcoin took the $5000. Bespoke Investment Group posted a table showing 12 different cryptocurrencies with more than $1 billion totalling $145 billion with Bitcoin far and away the leader with $89 billion. It is […]

      • Why Does FINRA Have An Investment Portfolio?
        by Roger Nusbaum on 11th October 2017 at 4:02 pm

        My latest post for Alpha Baskets is posted and includes the following; So here’s a weird one involving FINRA that you might have picked up in the last few days. Apparently it has a large, $1.6 billion, investment portfolio and the returns have been weak, according to the Wall Street Journal, under performing a 50/50 […]

      • Jobs Weak, Market Doesn’t Care
        by Roger Nusbaum on 9th October 2017 at 3:43 pm

        The weekly Market Update is posted and includes the following; Perhaps most interesting is that wages moved up out of its multi-month rut of 0.2/2.5 to show a gain in September of 0.5% with the year over year number at 2.9% which would appear to provide some cover for a December rate hike. Barron’s offered […]

      • Why Does Larry Swedroe Hate Dividends?
        by Roger Nusbaum on 4th October 2017 at 7:12 pm

        My latest post for Alpha Baskets is published and includes the following; Here’s the problem; back in 2003, 2004 and so one when the first dividend centric funds came out, most of them were grossly overweight to financials. I wrote about practically all of them for The Street.com and made that same point in every […]


      the research puzzle a blog by tom brakke

      • behind the numbers
        by tom brakke on 12th September 2017 at 5:01 pm

        Assessing the people in an investment firm is key to understanding its capabilities. But can we get more than a superficial look at the interpersonal dynamics that are critical to its success over time? […]

      • maps of the world
        by tom brakke on 16th August 2017 at 8:39 pm

        Investment organizations are facing a quickening pace of change, but using old constructs to analyze the environment and to make strategic decisions. New perspectives are needed. […]

      • into the workshop
        by tom brakke on 6th July 2017 at 5:09 pm

        Getting away from the normal routine is critical if you are to think about the challenges of the future. Four days with interesting investment people from around the world does the trick. […]

      • precision farming
        by tom brakke on 1st June 2017 at 6:03 pm

        There has been a restoration of faith in risk management and the modeling of market behavior since the financial crisis. Will those methods serve us well when the weather changes? […]

      • surprisingly popular
        by tom brakke on 2nd May 2017 at 9:21 pm

        For the first four years of this century, I taught at the University of Minnesota’s Carlson School of Management.  The classes were made up of MBA students who managed real-money equity and fixed income funds that had been established by the school (now totaling around $35 millionCarlson School of Management | The students working on [... […]


      RiskReversal RiskReversal with Dan Nathan

      • Chips and Dip? – SMH
        by Dan on 19th October 2017 at 3:18 pm

        Shares of Apple (AAPL) are down 2.5% today on concerns out of Asia that the company has cut orders by half for the next two months for its recently released iPhone 8. This is has ... […]

      • Update – (TGT) Target Practice
        by CC on 18th October 2017 at 7:03 pm

        I’ve written a bit lately about how to manage a losing trade. With that in mind I want to revisit a trade that was intiially a loser, that we wrote about hwo to adjust and ... […]

      • Bank Shot (XLF)
        by Dan on 17th October 2017 at 7:19 pm

        After a fairly long period of under-performance to the broad market in 2017, bank stocks ,as measured by the S&P Financial Select XLF, made a new 52 week and multi-year high. This follows a 10% ... […]

      • Adobe (ADBE) – Flash Sale
        by Dan on 16th October 2017 at 3:44 pm

        Shares of Adobe (ADBE) are down about 2.5% as I write this morning on a downgrade from Deutsche Bank, per Bloomberg: Adobe Systems faces lengthening sales cycles in its cloud marketing segment, writes Deutsche Bank ... […]

      • Procter & Gamble (PG) – Crest Fallen
        by CC on 13th October 2017 at 6:50 pm

        Procter & Gamble (PG) is up 11% on the year, that’s impressive. But on the other hand it is underperforming the SPX (up 14%) and the Dow which is up nearly 16%. PG is down ... […]


      The Big Picture Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media

      • EBI East Conference is Only 2 Weeks Away!
        by Barry Ritholtz on 19th October 2017 at 3:30 pm

            Its only 2 weeks away! The 2nd annual Evidence-Based Investing Conference in New York City is coming ! Note: Continuing Education Credits are available for members of professional associations. CFAs can earn up to 7.5 hours of CE credit; CFPs qualify for up to 4 1/2 hours. The line up of speakers is incredible —… Read More The post EBI East Conference is Only 2 Weeks Away! appeared first on The Big Picture. […]

      • Art Cashin Remembers Black Monday, 1987
        by Barry Ritholtz on 19th October 2017 at 1:00 pm

        Art Cashin remembers his experiences on Black Monday:   On this day (+1) in 1987 (that’s 30 years ago, if you are burdened with a graduate degree), the NYSE had one of its most dramatic trading days in its 220 year history. It suffered its largest single day percentage loss (22%) and its largest one… Read More The post Art Cashin Remembers Black Monday, 1987 appeared first on The Big Picture. […]

      • 10 Thursday AM Reads
        by Barry Ritholtz on 19th October 2017 at 11:10 am

        My 1987 Crash 30th anniversary morning train reads: • Bankrolling the Big Short (Institutional Investor) • Shiller: A Stock Market Panic Like 1987 Could Happen Again (New York Times) but see What Didn’t Happen on Black Monday 1987 (Elm) • These Americans Were Tricked Into Working For Russia. They Say They Had No Idea. (Buzzfeed) • ‘It’s able to create knowledge itself’: Google… Read More The post 10 Thursday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture. […]

      • October 19th, 1987 Crash 30th Anniversary
        by Barry Ritholtz on 19th October 2017 at 10:30 am

          25th Anniversary Black Monday 1987 Crash       Source: FT   Source: Daily News           Source: NYT       The post October 19th, 1987 Crash 30th Anniversary appeared first on The Big Picture. […]

      • CNN: Live Coverage of 1987 Stock Market Crash
        by Barry Ritholtz on 19th October 2017 at 10:00 am

        30 years ago today: CNN coverage of the Stock Market crash of October 19,1987. The post CNN: Live Coverage of 1987 Stock Market Crash appeared first on The Big Picture. […]


      Above the Market Perspectives on capital markets and personal finance

      • “I’m Joining a Cult!” (said nobody, ever)
        by Bob Seawright on 13th October 2017 at 10:36 pm

        George Orwell famously defined the tribal mindset as extreme identification with one’s tribe, “placing it beyond good and evil and recognising no other duty than that of advancing its interests.” In today’s world, that sounds like what passes for normal. … Continue reading &rarr […]

      • Navigating Uncertain Rewards and Certain Risks
        by Bob Seawright on 2nd October 2017 at 8:42 pm

        Photo source: Gary Elliot, San Diego Union Tribune My latest Research magazine column is now available online. Here’s a taste. September 1, 2011, was a beautiful day. Photographer Gary Elliot was taking pictures at Swami’s, a popular surfing beach in Encinitas, … Continue reading &rarr […]

      • Q3 2017 Market Monitor
        by Bob Seawright on 30th September 2017 at 8:59 pm

        […]

      • The Relentless Now
        by Bob Seawright on 21st September 2017 at 9:29 pm

        In philosophy, presentism is the idea only the present exists. More loosely, it refers to a narrow focus on the conditions of the moment. Philosophy aside, anyone with even a bit of experience in the financial world will recognize presentism … Continue reading &rarr […]

      • Horrid Facts, Stubborn Facts
        by Bob Seawright on 10th September 2017 at 11:00 am

        September 11. Two words. Sixteen years. Powerful emotions. Searing memories. Evocative stories. Sixteen years ago, on Tuesday, September 11, 2001, I was sitting in front of a Bloomberg terminal when the first, cryptic hints about trouble at the World Trade … Continue reading &rarr […]


      Epsilon Theory – Salient Think beyond convention.

      • Mailbag: Life in Trumpland
        by Ben Hunt on 6th March 2017 at 5:17 pm

        The best part about this job, other than being recognized in random bars by 50-year old financial advisors who are always good to buy me a drink (hey, you take your celebrity where you can), is the correspondence with readers. I began writing Epsilon Theory 3+ years ago and from the outset I started getting emails from really smart people, truth-seekers all, making their way in this world of mendacity and inauthenticity without succumbing to it, and it’s given me — if not an optimism — then at least the occasional absence of despair about the world my daughters will inherit. I’m going to make a regular habit of what I always found to be the most enjoyable part of Bill Simmons’ Sports Guy blog — the reader Mailbag. I got more than the usual quota of great emails from my most recent note “The Evolution of Competition,” my take on the political and social polarization running rampant in Trumpworld. So without further ado... The post Mailbag: Life in Trumpland appeared first on Salient. […]

      • I’m Not Predicting, I’m Observing
        by Ben Hunt on 1st March 2017 at 11:33 pm

        George Soros has a great line, one that I’ve stolen many times: “I’m not predicting. I’m observing.” We really don’t have a crystal ball, and it really is a dumb idea to pretend that we do. But what’s not dumb is to keep your eyes and ears open, observing both what the world is telling you (playing the cards) and what other market participants are telling you (playing the players), and reacting accordingly. That’s the heart of tactical investing. The post I’m Not Predicting, I’m Observing appeared first on Salient. […]

      • The Evolution of Competition
        by Ben Hunt on 7th February 2017 at 1:38 am

        The Trump presidency is breaking us. Not because of the specifics of his policies or whether they’re right or wrong or anything like that. It’s breaking us because we now routinely talk past or yell at our friends, family, and fellow citizens, despite vast common ground on the really big ideas of what it means to be Americans or, more fundamentally still, a good human being. Game theory can’t solve this growing discordance or reverse the evolution of competition, but it can identify the issue and maybe, just maybe, show us ways to mitigate the damage. The post The Evolution of Competition appeared first on Salient. […]

      • Fiat Money, Fiat News
        by Ben Hunt on 4th January 2017 at 12:53 am

        The history of money provides instructive lessons for the dominant social issue of the past few months: fake news. There’s an important distinction to be made between politically slanted news, like when the Washington Post writes a silly article about Russians hacking the U.S. electric grid, and outright fakery. The former is fiat news, which is to “real news” what fiat currencies like dollars and euros and yen are to “real money” like a gold coin. Fake news is something different. Fake news is counterfeit news, which is to fiat news what counterfeit bank notes are to fiat currencies. The fiat news business is booming. As a result, the counterfeit news business is booming, too. And if the history of fiat money and counterfeit money is any guide, we ain’t seen nothing yet. The post Fiat Money, Fiat News appeared first on Salient. […]

      • The Art of the Probe
        by Ben Hunt on 8th December 2016 at 11:48 pm

        I’ve written a lot about The Common Knowledge Game – here, here, and here – because it’s the game of markets, i.e., it’s the central contribution of game theory to understanding how markets work. I’ve also written a lot about new technologies and new perspectives – here, here, and here – that help us see The Common Knowledge Game in action. But until today I’ve never written on a basic question: how can you be a better player in the game of markets? This is my first cut at an answer, and along the way I’ll pull examples from the game of poker and the game of nations. I think it’s a fun paper and hope you find it useful. The post The Art of the Probe appeared first on Salient. […]


      Slope of Hope Technical Analysis, SlopeCharts, and Bear Markets

      • Swing Trade TSLA EXPE W
        by Ryan Mallory on 19th October 2017 at 6:38 pm

        Long Tesla (TSLA) Long Expedia (EXPE) Short Wayfair (W) Check out my Free Patterns to Profits Training Cours […]

      • Sally Beauty Continues Descent
        by Tim Knight on 19th October 2017 at 4:41 pm

        […]

      • Hedgers Lose Hope
        by Tim Knight on 19th October 2017 at 3:24 pm

        I’ve been reading ZeroHedge regularly since it launched in early 2009 (ironic timing, wouldn’t you say?), and although the comments section there tends to be rougher than a skid row neighborhood, it’s interesting to glance at it to see how the ZH zeitgeist is holding up. It seems that even the world-is-going-to-end crowd at ZH […]

      • He’s Got a Bomb
        by Tim Knight on 19th October 2017 at 12:37 pm

        This is going to be a weird post. But, come on, it’s totally dark outside, I’m standing here in my bare feet with my dogs looking at me, and you’re just……..sitting there. So who are you to judge? I will set this up by recalling an X-Files episode from 1999 called Monday.The show is about […]

      • He’s at It Again
        by Tim Knight on 19th October 2017 at 12:16 am

        From today………… I’ve written about hubris earlier this month. The sad part is that if we actually enter a bear market (I know that sounds impossible, but go with me on this), it’s not like the man would suddenly take blame or wonder out loud what’s going on. He would either be completely mute or, […]


      SMB Training Blog Lessons from the trading desk



      The Irrelevant Investor Just another WordPress site

      • They’re All Going to Leave
        by Michael Batnick on 18th October 2017 at 11:40 pm

        Stocks have been near all-time highs for a while now. The S&P 500 has gone 322 days without experiencing a 5% drawdown, colloquially known as a “pullback.” Stocks haven’t just been hanging out near all-time highs, they’ve been printing new ones daily. In 2017, 47 out of 201 sessions have closed at an all-time high....... […]

      • But Not Too Much
        by Michael Batnick on 17th October 2017 at 9:01 pm

        There is a fine line between admiration and jealousy. We love watching people succeed, but not too much. It was easy to root for Tom Brady when he won his first Super Bowl. But outside of Patriots fans, was there a person in America that was rooting for him to win his fifth? We love...... […]

      • Advice For Aspiring Traders
        by Michael Batnick on 16th October 2017 at 3:56 pm

        A frequent question asked of podcast guests is, “What do you know now that you wish you knew twenty years ago?” Twenty years ago I was twelve, but five years ago I was buying stocks that were going down and shorting stocks that were going up. I wish I knew how foolish this was. I...... […]

      • These Are the Goods
        by Michael Batnick on 15th October 2017 at 12:25 pm

        Articles In years when Finra’s fee revenue exceeds forecasts and investment gains are strong, the regulator can rebate fees paid by firms it regulates. It hasn’t done that since 2014. By Dave Michaels Telling the difference between patience and stubbornness is incredibly hard. By Morgan Housel This is why we do what we do. By Tony...... […]

      • The Price of Progress
        by Michael Batnick on 10th October 2017 at 12:01 pm

        We have two crises brewing. One will come to a head in my lifetime, the other in my child’s lifetime. According to a Washington Post article, The New Reality of Old Age in America, one in five Americans have no savings, and nearly 30 percent of households headed by someone 55 or older have neither a...... […]


      The Reformed Broker I help people invest and manage portfolios for them.


      Newfound Research Investing at the intersection of quantitative and behavioral finance


      A Teachable Moment Just another WordPress site

      • Keep Your Investment Factors out of the Zoo
        by Anthony Isola on 19th October 2017 at 1:00 am

        What do Nashville, Donald Trump and the Bible have in common, besides having the potential for a bad joke? They should not be included as components of your investment portfolio.  Unfortunately, this is the new reality. Sponsored by our good friends on Wall Street, there are now several “theme-based ETFs” specifically designed to separate you from...... […]

      • It’s Monday Again…..When Is My Retirement?
        by Anthony Isola on 16th October 2017 at 11:02 am

        Good Morning! Here are this week’s retirement links. Have a great day. What Is An Annuity Contract? – PlanSponsor The Price Of Progress – The Irrelevant Investor Finra Cracks Down On Faulty Variable Annuity Exchanges – InvestmentNews Bad News: Your 401(k) Won’t Give You A Decent Retirement – L.A. Times How To Pay For Long-Term...... […]

      • Generation Kill
        by Anthony Isola on 16th October 2017 at 1:14 am

          Young people are killing their chances of building wealth.  Their ignorance of how credit cards work is mind-blowing.  According to a recent survey: 6% believe that missing a card payment would “improve” their credit rating. WTF!!!! 17% said missing a card payment would have no effect on their score. 48% carry card balances on...... […]

      • Transferring Risk Won’t Make It Disappear
        by Anthony Isola on 15th October 2017 at 2:23 am

        Sometimes “safe” investments are anything but. This week, I wrote an article on Stable Value Funds for the InvestmentNews. Many people own these funds in their retirement accounts. They are sometimes looked upon as a higher yielding money market fund. This is not entirely true. If Investors use these products inappropriately, they might not get...... […]

      • Investors Need To Come Out Of The Closet
        by Anthony Isola on 11th October 2017 at 12:07 pm

        “[With] closet indexing….you’re paying a manager a fortune and he has 85% of his assets invested parallel to the indexes. If you have such a system, you’re being played for a sucker.”  – Charlie Munger Investing is hard even if you know what you are doing. Week number two of my investment class was devoted to...... […]


      Turing Finance Computer Science meets Quantitative Finance

      • Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis with R, Part One
        by StuartReid on 20th November 2016 at 12:00 pm

        Whilst working on some code for my Masters I kept thinking, "it would be really awesome if there was an R package which just consumed a price series and produced a data.frame of results from multiple randomness tests at multiple frequencies". ... Read More The post Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis with R, Part One appeared first on Turing Finance. […]

      • The Promise of Computing
        by StuartReid on 19th September 2016 at 9:00 pm

        You would be forgiven for thinking that Moore's law is a law like Newton's laws. It really does seem that as surely as an apple will fall to the ground, so too shall our computers, phones, tablets, and (now) watches capacity increase year-after-year ... Read More The post The Promise of Computing appeared first on Turing Finance. […]

      • Lossless Compression Algorithms and Market Efficiency?
        by StuartReid on 18th April 2016 at 3:00 pm

        In Hacking The Random Walk Hypothesis we applied the NIST suite of cryptographic tests for randomness to binarized daily market returns. Overall the NIST suite failed on the data. This result was taken to mean that markets are not quite the ... Read More The post Lossless Compression Algorithms and Market Efficiency? appeared first on Turing Finance. […]

      • Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks
        by StuartReid on 8th February 2016 at 8:00 am

        Because volatility seems to cluster in real life as well as the markets, it has been a while since my last article. Sorry about that. Today we will be taking our first giant leap along A Non-Random Walk down Wall Street. Read More The post Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks appeared first on Turing Finance. […]

      • How to be a Quant
        by StuartReid on 6th October 2015 at 10:00 pm

        Since writing about my experience writing the CFA Level I exam in June, I have received many emails from people interested in finding out how to become a quant. To some extent this post will answer that question. That said, this post is actually not ... Read More The post How to be a Quant appeared first on Turing Finance. […]


      UpsideTrader My Macro Visions, technicals, and The Long and Short Of It

      • Biotech Squishy -IBM Was Most Of The Dow Move
        by Joe Donohue on 19th October 2017 at 12:17 am

        The Dow acted the best of the four major indices today, mainly because IBM, one of the Dow 30 components, popped about 9%, so this accounted for about 85 points of the Dow's move. Biotech (XBI) was off about a half percent, but there was some bad action in individual names that eclipsed that decline. ... The post Biotech Squishy -IBM Was Most Of The Dow Move appeared first on UpsideTrader. […]

      • New Highs Except For The Russell 2000
        by Joe Donohue on 18th October 2017 at 12:24 am

        -Bill Ackman More new highs today and only the Russell didn't make more new highs. The Dow tagged 2300 (intraday) today and backed off slightly to close at 22,997. 2300 is a big fat round number, so there will some that say sellers come out of the woodwork at these numbers, but don't believe that until you see... The post New Highs Except For The Russell 2000 appeared first on UpsideTrader. […]

      • My Crash Day Seems Like Yesterday
        by Joe Donohue on 17th October 2017 at 1:42 am

        I believe today was the 30th anniversary of the infamous 1987 Black Monday stock market crash and it got me to thinking.  Where the hell was I?  Some of you rugrats were riding a big wheel when this amazing day occurred. I was a mere pup sitting at my desk at Lehman Brothers and I learned a lot... The post My Crash Day Seems Like Yesterday appeared first on UpsideTrader. […]

      • Market Consolidating
        by Joe Donohue on 13th October 2017 at 1:27 am

        The major indexes hit intraday records before closing lower as earnings season kicked into full gear, with JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup reporting results. It's been almost a year without a 3% drawdown in the S&P 500, 2nd longest run in history. 10 more days for the record.  Some would take the other side of that trade and... The post Market Consolidating appeared first on UpsideTrader. […]

      • More New Highs, But Don’ Get Complacent
        by Joe Donohue on 11th October 2017 at 11:15 pm

        So the Dow, SPX and Nazzy all made more new nominal highs today. Yawn.  The Russell 2000 is bull flagging too, and I don't think that's done going up. Tax cuts are still getting talked about in a positive way, but you know how I feel about how the clown people in Congress might figure out a  way... The post More New Highs, But Don’ Get Complacent appeared first on UpsideTrader. […]


      • When Should You Hire a Tax Attorney and What Can They Do for You?
        by jeff pierce on 19th October 2017 at 8:17 am

        By Charlie Brown There are attorneys as well as accountants who help you in the hour of need. The term attorney is gloomier as it implies not just fighting numbers but it is fighting the law. It is accurate up to some extent. A tax attorney is capable of handling certain things that accountants are not able to […]

      • Money Advice- Basics of Inheritance Tax
        by jeff pierce on 19th October 2017 at 8:13 am

        By Charlie Brown Inheritance tax refers to the taxes that people are required to pay on property or money that they inherited after a loved one’s death. This form of state tax is paid upon receipt of property or money from a deceased person’s estate. The beneficiary is financially responsible for the tax rather than the estate. Inheritance […]

      • Do You Want to Earn Money for Your Opinion? Read This!
        by jeff pierce on 10th October 2017 at 6:06 pm

        By Charlie Brown There are many ways to make money on the internet. One of these is by completing surveys. There are research companies which readily pay people to give their opinions on a variety of products or services. They provide surveys towards this effect. Surveys are simple questionnaires that are designed to collect information about various topics, […]

      • What Should You Expect from Your Bankruptcy Lawyer?
        by jeff pierce on 10th October 2017 at 6:00 pm

        By Charlie Brown It is the work of your bankruptcy attorney to handle your case from start to finish as well as offer legal advice during the process. In general, the expected services from your bankruptcy lawyer will be outlined in the retainer agreement that you signed with them, but that is not all. You should expect […]

      • The Easy Way to Find the Best Customs Broker
        by jeff pierce on 10th October 2017 at 5:56 pm

        By Charlie Brown Customs brokers play an important role in helping you import goods and clear customs. It is only licensed brokers who can perform this crucial role of helping you account for imported goods and pay duties. With the details of taxes, trade deal and tariffs changing on a regular basis, it can be hard for an […]



      Above list excludes a few well known blogs but hosted on Blogspot that seems to not gel with the plugin I am using to extract the blog posts. Listing them in Alphabetical Order below

      Musings on Markets – Aswath Damodaran

      The Brooklyn Investor

      Econompic Data

      Jesse’s Cafe Americain

      Jonathan Clements

      Severian Asset Management

      StockBee

      The Chart Pattern Trader

      The Art of Trading

      VIX and more