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US Blog Roll

This is a feed from major US Blogs on Finance & Investment. If you find any new site that you feel is worth listing out here, please ping me either in the comments column or in the contact us form.



Abnormal Returns Forecast-free since 2005


Comments on: I teach people to make money in financial markets.


    The Aleph Blog Helping Institutions and Ordinary People Invest Better by Focusing on Risk Control

    • What Caused the Financial Crisis?
      by David Merkel on 16th September 2018 at 4:52 am

      Photo Credit: Alane Golden || Sad but true — the crisis was all about bad monetary policy, a housing bubble, and poor bank risk management====================== There are a lot of opinions being trotted around ten years after the financial crisis.  A lot of them are self-serving, to deflect blame from areas that they want to […]

    • The Balance: Short Selling Stocks- Not for the Faint Hearted
      by David Merkel on 5th September 2018 at 5:46 pm

      =========================================== Here’s another article that I edited at The Balance: Short Selling Stocks- Not for the Faint Hearted.  The original author started out conservative on the topic, and I took it up another notch. For this article, I: added the information about changes to the uptick rule (which did not reflect anything post-2006), corrected a small […]

    • The Balance: Are You a Speculator or an Investor?
      by David Merkel on 2nd September 2018 at 12:41 am

      ========================== One thing to do at The Balance is fix old articles.  This article compares speculators and investors.  What I brought to this article was the following: Change the phrasing from trading to speculating to be more pointed. Add more and better criteria to what an investor does. Added the entire section “What To Do” […]

    • The Balance: Considering Event-Driven Investing
      by David Merkel on 1st September 2018 at 5:03 am

      =========================== I published another article at The Balance: Considering Event-Driven Investing.  This is one place where writing in the third person leaves a lot out.  I’ve done a lot with some types of event-driven investing. Speculating on hurricanes — I did that successfully at the hedge fund 2004, 2005 and 2006.  2006 because I thought the […]

    • The Best of the Aleph Blog, Part 42
      by David Merkel on 24th August 2018 at 6:05 am

      ========================= In my view, these were my best posts written between May 2017 and July 2017: The Biggest Problems For Investors Today The “two-minute question” with a half hour response. Perceived Versus Real Risk Tolerance Why questions about objective measures of risk tolerance need to be asked before querying someone about their subjective risk tolerance. […]


    All Star Charts Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets

    • Where Are U.S. Stocks Today?
      by JC on 22nd January 2019 at 8:01 pm

      There are many ways to gauge the strength or weakness of the U.S. Stock Market. For us, there isn’t a single “best way” to do it. The advantage we have is that we just analyze all of them. There are over 50 charts in my U.S. Stock Market Indexes workbook alone. But today I want to […] The post Where Are U.S. Stocks Today? appeared first on All Star Charts. […]

    • [Options Premium] An Inflection Point?
      by Sean McLaughlin on 21st January 2019 at 11:58 pm

      We’ve had quite a bounce in US equities since the beginning of the year. And the longer this bounce holds, the more appealing the long side gets. However, it still doesn’t alleviate the very real risk that we might be in what could best be described as a classic bear market bounce. And if that […] The post [Options Premium] An Inflection Point? appeared first on All Star Charts. […]

    • Mystery Chart 01-22-2019
      by Tom Bruni on 21st January 2019 at 9:39 pm

      From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting Last week was our first Mystery Chart and Reveal Post of 2019. This week we’re doing that same exercise with a new chart, x and y-axes and and all labels eliminated to minimize bias. As a reminder, this chart can be any security in any asset class on […] The post Mystery Chart 01-22-2019 appeared first on All Star Charts. […]

    • Mystery Chart 01-22-2019
      by Tom Bruni on 21st January 2019 at 8:59 pm

      Last week was our first Mystery Chart and Reveal Post of 2019. This week we’re doing that same exercise with a new chart, x and y-axes and and all labels eliminated to minimize bias. As a reminder, this chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or relative […] The post Mystery Chart 01-22-2019 appeared first on All Star Charts. […]

    • The Middles
      by JC on 21st January 2019 at 6:45 pm

      Picking tops and bottoms in the market is really hard. Some people claim they can do it and we’ll let them. It’s those types of people who help create the arbitrage between the aware and the unaware. Markets are rarely ever putting in a top or a bottom. Most of the time they’re just somewhere […] The post The Middles appeared first on All Star Charts. […]



      Andrew Thrasher – technical analysis

      • Markets Often Bottom on A Whimper Not A Bang
        by Andrew Thrasher, CMT on 3rd January 2019 at 2:08 pm

        There’s a saying that market tops are a process and bottoms are an event. This is meant to imply that tops are formed over drawn out periods of time, often several months, while the market will find a final low Continue reading Markets Often Bottom on A Whimper Not A Bang&rarr […]

      • Breadth Drops & Protection Buying Rises to Major Level
        by Andrew Thrasher, CMT on 21st December 2018 at 1:42 pm

        I don’t have a ton of time this morning but there’s one chart that really stuck out to me that I wanted to share, but couldn’t do it via 140 characters on Twitter. … Many have been noting the major Continue reading Breadth Drops & Protection Buying Rises to Major Level&rarr […]

      • The Importance of Being a Financial Fox and not a Hedgehog
        by Andrew Thrasher, CMT on 27th November 2018 at 11:32 am

        The market has stumbled. I think that’s something we can all agree on. With the rise in volatility, decline in stock prices, the financial news stories can become sexy again. Special Reports can be run in financial media and the Continue reading The Importance of Being a Financial Fox and not a Hedgehog&rarr […]

      • Yesterday’s Sell-Off And Where We Go From Here
        by Andrew Thrasher, CMT on 11th October 2018 at 12:14 pm

        Below is a note that I sent this morning to Thrasher Analytics subscribers. Because I think many traders and investors have questions about yesterday’s big move, I wanted to share this commentary on my blog as well. If you’re interested Continue reading Yesterday’s Sell-Off And Where We Go From Here&rarr […]

      • Weekly Volatility Dispersion Narrows to Historic Level
        by Andrew Thrasher, CMT on 17th September 2018 at 1:58 pm

        For Thrasher Analytics subscribers I share my Volatility Risk Trigger (VRT) model that I use to gain better insight into the potential for the Volatility Index to spike higher. A piece of my model is based on the topic I Continue reading Weekly Volatility Dispersion Narrows to Historic Level&rarr […]


      A Wealth of Common Sense Personal Finance, Investments & Markets

      • The Long-Term in International Stocks
        by Ben Carlson on 22nd January 2019 at 3:36 pm

        Last week I wrote about how diversification is (almost) undefeated by showing how your chances of seeing a positive return in both stocks and a simple 60/40 stock/bond portfolio have gone up historically as you extend your time horizon: Because this was a US-centric portfolio, the obvious follow-up question (which many of my astute readers asked)...... […]

      • How to Be Memorable
        by Ben Carlson on 20th January 2019 at 7:32 pm

        My wife and I attended a wine tasting party a few weeks ago at a friend’s house (21-year-old me can’t believe 37-year-old me just typed that but here we are). Every couple brought the wine of their choice to the party and all of the bottles were then placed in an individual bag with a number...... […]

      • Putting in the Reps
        by Ben Carlson on 18th January 2019 at 5:33 pm

        One of the best parts of the on-demand entertainment world we now live in is that you can consume content from people in different formats than you could in the past. When I was in high school and college Late Night with Conan O’Brien show was appointment viewing for me and my friends. His first...... […]

      • What I Learned From Jack Bogle
        by Ben Carlson on 17th January 2019 at 3:22 pm

        Jack Bogle, the legendary founder of Vanguard, passed away yesterday at age 89. He may not be the most well-known investor but he’s had by far the biggest impact on the investing public. Warren Buffett said it best in his 2016 annual report: If a statue is ever erected to honor the person who has...... […]

      • Animal Spirits Episode 64: The Richest 50%
        by Ben Carlson on 16th January 2019 at 1:49 pm

        This week’s Animal Spirits with Michael & Ben is sponsored by YCharts: Mention Animal Spirits and receive 20% off your subscription price when you initially sign up for the service. We discuss: Is WeWork in trouble? How dominant was Sears before their downfall? What’s the relationship between mortgage rates and home prices? Is demographics really destiny? How has...... […]




          Collaborative Fund Collaborative Fund is a leading source of capital for entrepreneurs pushing the world forward.

          • Healthcare - What We're Looking For
            on 22nd January 2019 at 1:10 pm

            There is a consensus that healthcare is broken – 70% of Americans believe that the US healthcare system is either in a state of crisis or has major problems. I understand why people feel this way. The system is more expensive than ever, but by some measures we have little to show for it – in recent years health inequities have grown, while life expectancies have declined. Despite all this, we’re hopeful. When you compare where we are today to where we were 100 years ago – life expectancies in the mid 50’s and pre-penicillin – it gets a bit easier to believe that problems plaguing the healthcare system can be fixed. Even in the relatively short time since Collaborative Fund started investing (2010), the healthcare system has undergone radical structural and technological shifts. The ACA expanded coverage to millions, payers and providers consolidated market share, and healthcare prices continued to climb. At the same time, enabling technologies have advanced: mobile computing, IoT, AI/machine learning, and gene sequencing all have the potential to change how healthcare solutions are discovered, delivered, and paid for. With our current fund, we are looking for companies that leverage these new technologies to address some of today’s most persistent challenges in healthcare delivery. Challenge #1: Lack of comprehensive and centralized health data, inhibiting potential for personalized care Healthcare data has come a long way. We’ve gone from 10% to 90+% adoption of electronic health records (EHR) in the last ten years alone, which means that there is now a digital record for most health information generated today. However, just because this data is now online doesn’t make it useful. Most EHR systems can’t exchange information between providers. And patients are less likely than ever to establish a consistent relationship with a primary care physician. With patients increasingly switching between providers and health insurers, critical health information is scattered across institutions that aren’t incentivized to share data with each other. Patients, on the other hand, stand to benefit immediately from a centralized health record, making them the ideal user to design for. With advancements in real-time biometric monitoring and genome sequencing, consumers are generating more health information than ever. Some projects, like Mindstrong Health, are creating entirely new measurement systems to detect cognitive changes from smartphone data. Others, like Nebula Genomics, are leveraging existing sequencing technologies to build a new marketplace for consumers to control how their genetic information is shared. We believe people should derive the most value from their data – especially when it comes to sensitive health information. That’s why we’re excited by patient-centric data platforms that mine new types of information to not only help people understand their health needs, but also to connect them to personalized, data-driven treatment options. Incumbents can’t be ignored in this shift to integrated data and delivery systems. The biggest players recognize the power of consolidation to drive efficiency and gain leverage in pricing negotiations: they spent $175B on M&A deals in 2017. Compared to the $5.8B invested into digital health startups that year, legacy players have a lot of money to buy market share, and are busy creating a consolidated health system. The entrance of tech-enabled, consumer-friendly challengers, as well as tech and consumer behemoths like Apple and Amazon, will force these incumbents to find ways to offer improved user experiences and cut costs. One way to do this is with personalized care, which can improve patient outcomes, while reducing time spent at inappropriate and expensive care settings. As personalization requires information on the health of patients, quality of providers, and cost of services, this could create opportunities for platforms that facilitate and incentivize data sharing between existing players. We admire how Human API has created a real-time health data network, which providers use to access patients’ data, insurers use to underwrite, and digital health companies use when engaging their users. We’re actively looking for data platforms that bring together information from disparate sources and leverage predictive analytics to help providers and payers offer personalized care at scale. Challenge #2: Low utilization of services to prevent and manage chronic conditions With the medical breakthroughs of the 20th century – penicillin (1928), the first organ transplant (1954) ,etc. – physicians could treat many conditions for the first time. These new technologies were incredibly effective in treating people once they became sick, and drove the development of a reactive healthcare system, optimized for delivering acute care. Insurance grew up alongside this system, and incentivized physicians to deliver more treatments with a fee-for-service model that reimbursed based on the quantity, rather than quality of care. In recent years, chronic conditions – the leading cause of death in America – have proved difficult for the US healthcare system to handle. Chronic conditions are often preventable, developing slowly over years, and are influenced by social factors (e.g., income, education, etc.) that providers currently don’t have the resources nor responsibility to address. We’ve seen a few models emerge to fill this gap in the healthcare system: 1) new providers that offer prevention-oriented primary care 2) virtual care technologies that guide patients to adopt preventative practices. With increasing consumer preference for convenient care options, we’re most interested in those virtual care technologies that leverage AI or asynchronous telemedicine to encourage the adoption of behaviors that prevent chronic illness. For patients with chronic conditions, frequent and consistent treatment is necessary. Today, in-person and pharmaceutical therapies are the primary treatment solutions, but inconvenience and high costs limit access. Digital therapeutics – software that reinforces or replaces clinical therapies altogether – limit the need for live interactions with providers, and lower the barriers to accessing treatment. Moreover, digital therapeutics can prioritize user experience and engagement, improving adherence and increasing the data available to inform personalized treatments. Some digital therapeutics have been met with hesitance from providers who don’t have the time to adopt a new treatment program or integrate new sources of information. We’re excited by digital therapeutics that both reduce the amount of time providers have to spend collecting and inputting data and optimize providers’ existing workflow with a superior software solution. Challenge #3: Lack of price transparency and increasing costs of healthcare As high-deductible health plans have expanded to cover more than 43% of the US, the amount people have to spend out of pocket, before healthcare expenses are covered, is climbing. An individual with employer-based insurance can now expect a $1491 deductible – up ~5x since 2006. Individuals who don’t have access to employer-based or public insurance have to assume even more risk before their health insurance will help with medical bills – the most popular plan on the individual exchange comes with a $4375 deductible. Increased cost-sharing via these high deductible health plans, plus a mismatch in the growth of healthcare costs and wages (out-of-pocket costs rose twice as fast as wages from 2006 to 2016), drove 25% of people to go without necessary medical care in 2017. Americans are increasingly responsible for paying for their healthcare, but just 3% compare costs before receiving care. Why do Americans treat healthcare purchases so differently from their other expenses? It’s not just that they make these decisions during emergencies when there’s little time to shop around. It’s a lack of available information. The most commonly used discovery tools – health information and provider review sites – don’t offer cost or outcomes data, leaving consumers with little evidence-based guidance on how to find healthcare solutions that meet their needs and ability to pay. Marketplaces and care navigation tools can enable consumers to make better healthcare decisions with upfront, transparent pricing. We’re inspired by employer-oriented companies like Amino, as well as progressive providers like Kindbody, who empower consumers with upfront cost estimates for health services. As the burden of paying for healthcare continues to shift to consumers, we’re eager to partner with companies that offer experiences on par with traditional retailers – intuitive discovery, convenience, and price transparency – to win and retain patients. We’re eager to support companies building a future where healthcare is personalized, prevention-oriented, and affordable. So if you’re working on a solution to any of these challenges, we’d love to talk to you! […]

          • What We're Reading
            on 18th January 2019 at 11:49 am

            A few good pieces the Collaborative team came across this week … Comedy What it teaches us about money: “Wealth is not about having a lot of money; it’s about having a lot of options.” Chris Rock. “The only thing money gives you, is the freedom of not worrying about money.” Johnny Carson. “Cocaine is God’s way of saying that you’re making too much money.” Robin Williams. Ambition Long-term thinking: An investment of $1000 will be put in a legal trust for 500 years. Assuming a modest 4% annual return, the investment will be approximately 328 billion dollars in the year 2515, at which point it will be spent on scientific research and the construction of a time machine. Held back Student loans: Homeownership among people ages 24 to 32 fell 9 percentage points, to 36% from 45%, between 2005 and 2014, the Fed said. While many factors affected the homeowner rate, the Fed said 2 percentage points, or about a fifth, of the decline was tied directly to student debt. That translated into 400,000 borrowers who could have owned a home by 2014 but didn’t because of student loans. Demand One way to do it: The northern Chinese province of Hebei is proposing giving workers Friday afternoon off, while Beijing urges shops and malls to stay open later at night, as officials seek creative ways of stimulating consumption and supporting economic growth. Clean meat The future: “If you had lied to me and told me this was store-bought ground beef, I would have believed you.” So says my friend John as we stand in his kitchen, experimenting with the newly revamped Impossible Burger, which will begin to show up in some restaurants this week. Later this year, the plant-based burger will also be available in grocery stores for the first time. Luck and chance Never forget your cat: Have a nice weekend. […]

          • When It's Time To Do Something
            on 15th January 2019 at 8:28 pm

            The Department of Homeland Security created terrorism warning codes after 9/11. The idea was to attach a label on the level of risk faced at a given moment. There was yellow (significant risk), orange (high risk) and red (severe risk). Comedian Ron White pointed out the problem. “Does anyone know what to do when the heightened state of awareness goes from yellow to orange?” he asked. “No, you do not. Nobody knows what to do different.” He proposed a more practical system. “I’d only have two heightened states of awareness: 1) Go find a helmet, and 2) Put the helmet on.” Labels that don’t guide action are confusing because everyone has a different perspective on risks and goals. So labels that don’t tell you what to do just give external support to whatever you wanted to in the first place. This happens in investing, too. Take the most basic label: short term vs. long term. There’s no definition of what they mean, or what you should do with them. Is one year short term? Is five years long term? It depends what you’re doing. I have seen traders call one week the long run and endowments call 10 years the short run. And even if you say you’re focused on the long run, the long run is a collection of short runs that must at least be dealt with. Take a long-term investor who rebalances after a quick 10% decline. That’s responding to short-term news. So are they still a long-term investor? I don’t know. Or investors with short-term strategies managing for long-term careers. What do we call them? They look like short-term investors, but they may not think of themselves that way if they’re managing money for a retirement that’s 30 years from now. The blurred lines between time-horizon labels can distort what you think is a competitive advantage. Investor Ben Hunt: What you and other investors “think about” is arbitrary and often a straw man. What actions you and other investors take is more concrete. So a better label to attach to yourself, and measure others by, is, “How sensitive are your investment actions to new information?” It’s closer to the Ron White system. Rather than short term on one end and long term on the other, it’s something like this:I consider myself a long-term investor. But a big enough news story could convince me to sell and do something else. It’d have to be a massive news story that changed my view on the economy. It’s a high bar. But it could happen. The biggest criticism against long-term buy-and-hold investing is that it’s oblivious to what’s happening in the world. I don’t think that’s right. Most investors see the same data. Some are just less sensitive to new information than others. Once you separate investors by their sensitivity to new information, the question becomes “How confident are you that the information you’re responding to is signal vs. noise?” That, I think, is the most important question any investor can ask. “Does this piece of information fall into the range of normal stuff I should expect from my strategy, or is it important enough to warrant doing something?” Most investors are focused on long periods of time. But you can’t build an investing approach based solely off time because, like Ron White, it doesn’t tell you what to do. Knowing your time horizon is important. But it’s more important to know how wide the range of normal variance is in your investing strategy, and only act when stuff falls outside of that range. This is true no matter how you invest – private equity, day trading, and everything in between. Everyone is just after the question, “Does what’s happening in the real world confirm or deny what I expect to happen?” Answering that question tells you when it’s time to do something. […]

          • What We're Reading
            on 13th January 2019 at 11:56 am

            A few good posts the Collaborative team came across this week … Outperformance Peter Lynch: Downswing Great news: Deaths from cancer dropped 27% over a quarter century, meaning an estimated 2.6 million fewer people died of the disease during that period, according to a new report from researchers at the American Cancer Society. For most of the 20th century, overall cancer deaths rose, driven mainly by men dying from lung cancer, researchers noted. But since the peak in 1991, the death rate has steadily dropped 1.5% a year through 2016, primarily because of long-running efforts to reduce smoking, as well as advances in detection and treatment of cancer at earlier stages, when prognosis for recovery is generally better. Bias Fascinating: What a cool paper at #ASSA2019. Typhoon forecasters in different cities systematically bias the predicted stormtrack toward their own city. Because the costs of mis-forecasting are greater for hits than for misses. pic.twitter.com/KKd3tc9VsI— Michael Clemens (@m_clem) January 6, 2019 \ Demographics Forecasting is hard: Because demographics are supposed to be destiny, Japan was long ago consigned to stagnation with its aging population and rock-bottom birthrate. But in recent years Japan has defied destiny. Since 2012, its working-age population has shrunk by 4.7 million, yet the number of people working has surged by 4.4. million, the critical ingredient in what is now Japan’s second-longest economic expansion since World War II. The proportion of the population in the labor force has risen sharply since 2012, by more than in any other major advanced economy. Brands How to get it done: Currently, most food companies focus on a logo or a symbol to represent their differentiation. Maybe it’s a cartoon animal or lifestyle they are known for. Increasingly though, consumers want food to be a solution to a need they have. Could be better vision, shiny skin, inflammation reduction or it could be a better mood.“Let food be thy medicine and medicine by thy food.”Most newer brands are spending time focused on their functional attributes and how they differentiate from others. The companies that can provide those specific attributes that solve the needs of consumers, cost effectively and authentically, will be where new customer loyalty resides. DNA, heart rate, glucose and other constant, realtime human monitoring will accelerate these verifiable claims. Good news 99 stories you may have missed from the year: India registered a 22% decline in maternal deaths since 2013. That means on average, 30 more new mothers are now being saved every day compared to five years ago. The Wire 23. Ghana became the first country in sub-Saharan Africa to eliminate trachoma. In 2000, it threatened 2.8 million people (15% of the population) with blindness. Devex Have a good weekend. […]

          • Things I'm Pretty Sure About
            on 9th January 2019 at 4:32 am

            A few things I’ve been thinking about lately … Market behaviors feed on themselves. Daniel Kahneman once said: There is one class of problems with groups and the wisdom of crowds where averaging really works: When the errors that people make are completely uncorrelated. So when different people are prone to make very different errors, then the errors will tend to cancel them out and the law of large numbers will work and so on, so you get an advantage there. But when you have problems where the biases are shared, then actually groups could be worse than individuals because people finding that others agree with them become even more overconfident. We all see the same market price and read the same commentary, the latter of which is like gasoline on the flames of herd behavior. So investing misbehaviors can snowball. The consequence is that markets rarely sit at “average” valuations; they spend far more time in areas that look historically cheap or historically crazy. We will probably look back at the record-low volatility during Trump’s first year in office as a remarkable event. Investors have talked about the risk of political uncertainty for years. Then as the lead-in to an era where constitutional rivets seem to be popping off, markets took a nap. This is less about politics and more about the lag between big events and coming to terms with big events. Same thing happened in 2007, when the financial crisis began sparking in the summer of 2007 and markets rolled on to new all-time highs. It is hard to be a good investor and a good investment salesman, because good investing is usually either accepting painful volatility, or avoiding it through dampening diversification. Neither appeals to the emotional part of the brain that marketing targets. What works in marketing – promising something above average and soon – are the two things market gods walk around with sledgehammers trying to destroy. Jason Zweig: “The advice that sounds the best in the short run is always the most dangerous in the long run.” What if we’re currently in a recession? I don’t know if we are. No one does. But recessions are often only known in hindsight, after economic data is revised to show that a period of slow growth was actually negative growth. This happened during the last recession, which started at the end of 2007, despite headlines like “Economy holding up” and “What economic slowdown?” I look around today – housing slowing, trade wars brewing, shutdowns stewing – and wonder if it’s the kind of stuff we’ll look back at a year from now and say, “Why wasn’t this more obvious?” What I’m sure of is that if recessions are best viewed in hindsight, recoveries are too. Warren Buffett on buying stocks in 2008: “If you wait for the robins, spring will be over.” The lag between what you see and what you should do about what you see is why actively navigating recessions is so hard. There’s more to learn from people who endured risk than those who seemingly conquered it, because the kind of skills you need to endure risk are more likely repeatable and relevant to tomorrow’s risks. I’m more impressed with someone who has outperformed by a little bit over multiple cycles than someone who has outperformed by a lot over one. This is true for managers, marriages, countries, products, and businesses – compounding favors endurance over sprints and tolerance over avoidance. Part of the reason pessimism is more seductive than optimism is because, despite an awareness of how powerfully things have changed in the past, it’s easy to underestimate our ability to change in the future. Psychologists call this the end of history illusion. In people it’s a tendency to underestimate how much your tastes and preferences will change in the future. When you combine this quirk with markets’ propensity to be in wild states of unsustainable highs and lows, pessimism reigns because it’s easy to underestimate how those crazy states will ever adapt or revert to the mean. If you extrapolate college tuition growing at 10% a year for another 20 years, it looks insane and you’ll be pessimistic. Extrapolate current government deficits as far as you can see and we’re in trouble. Extrapolate negative growth during a recession and you’ll want to build a bunker. But the whole history of economics is a story about things adapting and reverting. Newton’s third law applies to economics: For every reaction – rising price, falling price, higher margin, lower interest rate, whatever – there is an equal and opposite reaction. Somewhere. To someone, who will eventually have enough sway to move things in the other direction or figure out a more palatable option. Underestimating adaptation and reversion to the mean is the greatest cause of pessimism. If you can stick around long enough to stomach the adaptations, optimism should virtually always the default assumption. […]


          • Motley Fool on Fiserv/First Data
            by Eddy Elfenbein on 22nd January 2019 at 2:41 pm

            The Motley Fool takes a deep dive on the merger: The new Fiserv Management of the two companies expects the acquisition to lead to $900 […]

          • Morning News: January 22, 2019
            by Eddy Elfenbein on 22nd January 2019 at 12:17 pm

            Stocks Slide After the IMF Cut Its Forecast for Global Growth Amid Mounting Concerns About the US-China Trade War Chilling Davos: A Bleak Warning on […]

          • MLK: Street Sweeper Speech
            by Eddy Elfenbein on 21st January 2019 at 4:06 pm

            Here’s one of MLK’s lesser-known speeches but I think it deserves a greater hearing: […]

          • Morning News: January 21, 2019
            by Eddy Elfenbein on 21st January 2019 at 11:50 am

            Eve-of-Davos Survey Shows People Place Trust in Companies Over Governments Data Dependent? Five Questions for the ECB China’s Slowdown Looms Just as the World Looks […]

          • WSJ on Raytheon’s Thomas Phillips
            by Eddy Elfenbein on 19th January 2019 at 11:42 pm

            The Wall Street Journal on Raytheon’s CEO Thomas Phillips: He was born of Greek parents in Istanbul and originally named Athanasius Leonidas Philippides. His father […]


          CSSA new concepts in quantitative research

          • “2D Asset Allocation” using PCA (Part 2)
            by david varadi on 21st August 2018 at 7:12 pm

            In the last post we showed how to use PCA to create Offense and Defense portfolios by focusing on the first principal component or “PC1.” After rotation has been completed it is possible to derive weights or portfolios for each principal component. Another good primer on using PCA for asset allocation is written by a […]

          • “2D Asset Allocation” Using PCA (Part 1)
            by david varadi on 23rd July 2018 at 2:45 pm

            Asset allocation is a complex problem that can be solved using endless variations of different approaches that range from theoretical like Mean-Variance to heuristic like Minimum Correlation or even “tactical strategies.” Another challenge is defining an appropriate asset class universe which can lead to insidious biases that even experienced practitioners can fail to grasp or […]

          • Adaptive Volatility: A Robustness Test Using Global Risk Parity
            by david varadi on 29th November 2017 at 8:37 pm

            In the last post we introduced the concept of using adaptive volatility in order to have a flexible lookback as a function of market conditions. We used the R-squared of price as a proxy for the strength of the trend in the underlying market in order to vary the half-life in an exponential moving average […]

          • Adaptive Volatility
            by david varadi on 16th November 2017 at 2:42 am

            One of the inherent challenges in designing strategies is the need to specify certain parameters. Volatility parameters tend to work fairly well regardless of lookback, but there are inherent trade-offs to using short-term versus longer-term volatility. The former is more responsive to current market conditions while the latter is more stable. One approach is to […]

          • Risk Management and Dynamic Beta Podast
            by david varadi on 4th August 2017 at 3:52 pm

            I had the honor of speaking with Mebane Faber of Cambria Investment Management recently where I discussed the topic of risk management and also applying a dynamic beta approach on his widely popular podcast “The Mebane Faber Show”. The interview is almost an hour and covers a wide range of topics whether you are a quant geek like myself […]


          Derek Hernquist Just another WordPress site

          • Why Active OR Passive?
            by Derek on 6th September 2014 at 3:23 pm

            “Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others” Winston Churchill Not sure if it’s me, or the bull market, but the passive>active […] The post Why Active OR Passive? appeared first on Derek Hernquist. […]

          • A New “Trend” For Me
            by Derek on 20th July 2014 at 3:22 pm

            “I believe that understanding what is good is obtained by looking at the way the world works and operating in harmony with it to help […] The post A New “Trend” For Me appeared first on Derek Hernquist. […]

          • Play Ball!
            by Derek on 10th May 2014 at 1:31 pm

            “Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains.”  Crash Davis Fridays are my son’s baseball practices. We need the field time, with last weekend’s […] The post Play Ball! appeared first on Derek Hernquist. […]

          • The Only Truth in Markets is Surprise
            by Derek on 26th April 2014 at 12:58 pm

            “Blessed is he who expects nothing, for he shall never be disappointed.” Alexander Pope That phrase has stuck since I was a kid, written under […] The post The Only Truth in Markets is Surprise appeared first on Derek Hernquist. […]

          • I Have No Idea What Tesla is Worth, Do You?
            by Derek on 5th March 2014 at 4:24 pm

            “Where can I get into this trend at a low risk spot?” Brian Shannon This is a little late, but having made some notes from […] The post I Have No Idea What Tesla is Worth, Do You? appeared first on Derek Hernquist. […]


          Dragonfly Capital What the Charts are Saying about the Market


          The Evidence-Based Investor Buffett and Bogle are right — the best way to invest is to buy and hold a low-cost and highly diversified portfolio of assets for a very long time.

          • Something we can all do in memory of Jack Bogle
            by Robin Powell on 22nd January 2019 at 1:25 pm

              There have been several suggestions made for a fitting tribute to the late Jack Bogle. Of course, Warren Buffett once suggested that “if a statue is ever erected to honor the person who has done the most for American investors, the hands-down choice should be Jack Bogle.” My fellow blogger Meb Faber said the […] The post Something we can all do in memory of Jack Bogle appeared first on The Evidence-Based Investor. […]

          • Tributes to an investing legend
            by Robin Powell on 19th January 2019 at 10:35 am

              Tributes to the late, great Jack Bogle continue to pour in thick and fast. As Barry Ritholtz put it the other day, praise for the man compounds, just like his returns. I’ve put together a selection of tributes below, in no particular order. There’ve been so many heartfelt sentiments expressed that I couldn’t possibly […] The post Tributes to an investing legend appeared first on The Evidence-Based Investor. […]

          • My personal debt of gratitude to Jack Bogle
            by Robin Powell on 17th January 2019 at 7:02 pm

              So we’ve lost a legend. I’ve seen so many wonderful tributes* to Jack Bogle over the last few hours that there’s nothing I feel I can add about the man that hasn’t already been said. I had the privilege of meeting him twice. I didn’t know it at the time, but our first meeting, seven […] The post My personal debt of gratitude to Jack Bogle appeared first on The Evidence-Based Investor. […]

          • The surprisingly strong case for selling stocks at random
            by Robin Powell on 16th January 2019 at 11:15 am

              Imagine two fund managers, Manager A and Manager B. Manager A tells you he’s going to pick stocks he expects to outperform the market in the future, and sell stocks he expects to underperform. Manager B has the same approach as Manager A to buying stocks, but a rather unusual approach to selling. Instead […] The post The surprisingly strong case for selling stocks at random appeared first on The Evidence-Based Investor. […]

          • Charley Ellis, the man who unmasked the loser’s game
            by Robin Powell on 15th January 2019 at 2:48 pm

            Thanks to everyone for the positive feedback on the first in our #InvestingSuperheroes video series, featuring Jack Bogle. Now for the second video, which acknowledges the huge contribution that Charley Ellis has made to the investing industry. Charley was the man who famously called active money management a loser’s game in an article in the […] The post Charley Ellis, the man who unmasked the loser’s game appeared first on The Evidence-Based Investor. […]


          • The Rollercoaster December to Remember
            by sidoxia on 5th January 2019 at 12:16 am

            Last month turned out to be a memorable one for stock market investors, but unforgettable for many of the wrong reasons. Santa Claus left more dark coal than shiny gifts, judging by the -9.2% correction last month in the S&P 500 index, making it the worst December since 1931. Overall, the damage for the year […]

          • Will Santa Leave a Lump of Coal?
            by sidoxia on 4th December 2018 at 12:58 am

            As we enter the last month of the year, the holiday season is kicking into full gear, decorations are popping up everywhere, and the burning question arises, “Will Santa Claus bring gifts for stock market investors, or will he leave a lump of coal in their stockings?” It was a bumpy sleigh ride last month, […]

          • Will the Halloween Trick Turn into a Holiday Treat?
            by sidoxia on 1st November 2018 at 10:41 pm

            The interest rate boogeyman came out in October as fears of an overzealous Federal Reserve monetary policy paralyzed investors into thinking rising interest rates could murder the economy into recession. But other ghostly issues frightened the stock market last month as well, including mid-term elections, heightening trade war tensions, a weakening Chinese economy, a fragile European […]

          • The Dirty Little Stock Market Secret
            by sidoxia on 2nd October 2018 at 6:08 pm

            Shhhh…don’t tell anyone, I have a dirty little secret. Are you ready? Are you sure? The world is not going to end…really. Despite lingering trade concerns (see Trump Hits China with Tariffs on $200 Billion in Goods), Elon Musk being sued by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for tweeting his controversial intentions to take Tesla […]

          • Another Month, Another Record
            by sidoxia on 4th September 2018 at 11:31 pm

            The S&P 500 eclipsed the 2,900 level and the NASDAQ jumped over 8,000 this month – both all-new record highs. The Dow Jones Industrial average also temporarily catapulted above 26,000 in August, but remains 2% shy of the January 2018 record highs. For the year, here are what the gains look like thus far: S&P […]


          The Investor's Field Guide A Journey Through the Stock Market Jungle


          • Momentum Monday – Climbing A Wall of Worry
            by Ivanhoff on 21st January 2019 at 3:02 pm

            All charts on Momentum Monday are powered by MarketSmith In the last quarter of 2018, the market priced in a potential recession at some point in 2019. Judging by the price action and earnings results we are seeing, the market is currently re-evaluating its thesis. Scars from violent corrections don’t heal fast. This is why … Continue reading "Momentum Monday – Climbing A Wall of Worry" […]

          • Top One Percent Stocks – January 20th
            by Ivanhoff on 20th January 2019 at 6:40 pm

            All charts in this post are powered by MarketSmith One of my favourite screens to run during rising markets is high relative strength. Every day, I go through the charts of strongest stocks and I look for three major setups: Breakouts – fresh breakouts from bases. Some of the breakout setups that I highlighted this … Continue reading "Top One Percent Stocks – January 20th" […]

          • Momentum Monday – Back To Resistance
            by Ivanhoff on 14th January 2019 at 4:49 pm

            All charts on Momentum Monday are powered by MarketSmith $260 is proving to be a tough nut to crack for SPY, which has been basing below it for the past few trading days. This is not unexpected. 260 was a major support in late 2018. It’s normal to act as short-term resistance after SPY broke … Continue reading "Momentum Monday – Back To Resistance" […]

          • The Strongest Stocks In the Current Market
            by Ivanhoff on 13th January 2019 at 6:35 pm

            All charts in this post are powered by MarketSmith I ran a screen for the strongest stocks currently in the market that belong to the strongest industries. They all have a relative strength rating of 99, which means they have outperformed 99% of all stocks and ETFs in the past year. An Industry rating of … Continue reading "The Strongest Stocks In the Current Market" […]

          • Momentum Monday – The Bulls Are Raging. What’s Next?
            by Ivanhoff on 7th January 2019 at 6:31 pm

            All charts on Momentum Monday are powered by MarketSmith The oversold bounce continues with full force led by two groups of stocks: The ones the held the best during the correction – enterprise software names like TWLO, TEAM, MDB, AYX, SPLK, etc. The ones the were hit the hardest during the correction – small-cap biotech. … Continue reading "Momentum Monday – The Bulls Are Raging. What’s Next?" […]


          Blog | Jason Zweig A safe haven for investors by Jason Zweig of The Wall Street Journal.


          Joe Fahmy The Next Big Move

          • Trends With Benefits Podcast – Episode 1
            by jfahmy on 19th January 2019 at 7:17 pm

            Welcome to the first episode of our new podcast called "Trends With Benefits." In this podcast, my awesome co-host Nicole Sherrod (former Managing Director of Trading at TD Ameritrade) and I will be sharing some of our trading experiences. We will also discuss trends we are seeing in the markets, the news of the week, [...] The post Trends With Benefits Podcast – Episode 1 appeared first on Joe Fahmy. […]

          • WEEKEND MARKET VIDEO: 1/12/19
            by jfahmy on 13th January 2019 at 12:34 am

            The purpose of this video is to share some of my experiences from 20 years of trading, provide education and market commentary. If you have any questions, you can email me directly at jfahmy@zorcapital.com. Thank you for watching and good luck trading! Charts are provided by MarketSmith. To learn more or for a trial, click [...] The post WEEKEND MARKET VIDEO: 1/12/19 appeared first on Joe Fahmy. […]

          • WEEKEND MARKET VIDEO: 1/5/19
            by jfahmy on 6th January 2019 at 12:15 am

            The purpose of this video is to share some of my experiences from 20 years of trading, provide education and market commentary. If you have any questions, you can email me directly at jfahmy@zorcapital.com. Thank you for watching and good luck trading! Charts are provided by MarketSmith. To learn more or for a trial, click [...] The post WEEKEND MARKET VIDEO: 1/5/19 appeared first on Joe Fahmy. […]

          • WEEKEND MARKET VIDEO: 12/22/18
            by jfahmy on 23rd December 2018 at 2:47 am

            The purpose of this video is to share some of my experiences from 20 years of trading, provide education and market commentary. If you have any questions, you can email me directly at jfahmy@zorcapital.com. Thank you for watching and good luck trading! Charts are provided by MarketSmith. To learn more or for a trial, click [...] The post WEEKEND MARKET VIDEO: 12/22/18 appeared first on Joe Fahmy. […]

          • The American Dream
            by jfahmy on 22nd December 2018 at 6:07 pm

            “In 1923, seven men who had made it to the top of the financial success pyramid met together at the Edgewater Hotel in Chicago. Collectively, they controlled more wealth than the entire United States Treasury, and for years the media had held them up as examples of success. Who were they? Charles M. Schwab, president [...] The post The American Dream appeared first on Joe Fahmy. […]


          QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH AND TRADING The latest theories, models and investment strategies in quantitative research and trading

          • Identifying Drivers of Trading Strategy Performance
            by Jonathan on 22nd January 2019 at 2:17 pm

            Building a winning strategy, like the one in the e-Mini S&P500 futures described here is only half the challenge:  it remains for the strategy architect to gain an understanding of the sources of strategy alpha, and risk.  This means identifying the factors that drive strategy performance and, ideally, building a model so that their relative... The post Identifying Drivers of Trading Strategy Performance appeared first on QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH AND TRADING. […]

          • Signal Processing and Sample Frequency
            by Jonathan on 15th January 2019 at 2:17 pm

            The Importance of Sample Frequency Too often we apply a default time horizon for our trading, whether it below (daily, weekly) or higher (hourly, 5 minute) frequency.  Sometimes the choice is dictated by practical considerations, such as a desire to avoid overnight risk, or the (lack of0 availability of low-latency execution platform. But there is... The post Signal Processing and Sample Frequency appeared first on QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH AND TRADING. […]

          • A Universal Stock Screening Application
            by Jonathan on 11th January 2019 at 1:17 pm

            Happy New Year to my readers. I recently pitched a consulting  project that entailed building a stock screener that would apply  both fundamental and technical criteria to identity a universe of candidate stocks across world-wide equity markets. Here is how I approached the task: The post A Universal Stock Screening Application appeared first on QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH AND TRADING. […]

          • Trading Strategy Design
            by Jonathan on 8th January 2019 at 2:17 pm

            In this post I want to share some thoughts on how to design great automated trading strategies – what to look for, and what to avoid. For illustrative purposes I am going to use a strategy I designed for the ever-popular S&P500 e-mini futures contract. The overall equity curve for the strategy is show below.... The post Trading Strategy Design appeared first on QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH AND TRADING. […]

          • My Big Fat Greek Vacation
            by Jonathan on 1st January 2019 at 2:17 pm

            LEARNING TO TRUST A TRADING SYSTEM One of the most difficult decisions to make when running a systematic trading program is knowing when to override the system.  During the early 2000’s when I was running the Caissa Capital fund, the models would regularly make predictions on volatility that I and our head Trader, Ron Henley,... The post My Big Fat Greek Vacation appeared first on QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH AND TRADING. […]


          Marginal REVOLUTION Small Steps Toward A Much Better World

          • The wisdom of Arnold Kling (a Kamala Harris parable)
            by Tyler Cowen on 22nd January 2019 at 6:54 pm

            Here is the opener of my Bloomberg column: One of the worst tendencies in American politics is to restrict supply and subsidize demand. (The phrase is from the economist Arnold Kling.) The likely result of such policies is high and rising prices, restricted access and often poor quality. If you limit the number of homes […] The post The wisdom of Arnold Kling (a Kamala Harris parable) appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. […]

          • Tuesday assorted links
            by Tyler Cowen on 22nd January 2019 at 5:29 pm

            1. ‘Music for people living with dementia is a necessity’, says new national campaign. 2. The Cultural Revolution as a signaling game. 3. Using deceased-donor kidneys to initiate chains of living donor kidney paired donations: algorithms and experimentation. 4. Retail arbitrage. 5. Ahem.  And more from David Brooks.  And the apology. 6. What experimental economics should do […] The post Tuesday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. […]

          • Those new service sector jobs
            by Tyler Cowen on 22nd January 2019 at 6:56 am

            Ms. Golden, 43, has developed these no-fly lists in her four years as a dating app ghostwriter. For $2,000 a month, she swipes, chats and charms, impersonating her clients. Once she has earned a client a date, she tags them in and becomes a more traditional dating coach, reviewing each encounter in detailed post-mortems, helping to […] The post Those new service sector jobs appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. […]

          • Facts that contradict the standard housing bubble story
            by Tyler Cowen on 22nd January 2019 at 5:36 am

            Here I am doing a mix of quoting and paraphrasing the excellent Kevin Erdmann: 1. “Housing construction has been constricted in our most prosperous cities.” 2. “Home prices in many developed countries rose at least as sharply as inthe US.” 3. “…rent inflation has been persistently high for 20 years.” 4. “Growth in real rent […] The post Facts that contradict the standard housing bubble story appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. […]

          • Privacy vs. control
            by Tyler Cowen on 21st January 2019 at 4:28 pm

            It is often suggested that Facebook, Google, and the other major tech companies violate the privacy of their users, and of course the companies are criticized on those grounds.  Yet I never see those critics go after other sources of privacy violations, such as say the friends and acquaintances who gossip behind our backs.  If […] The post Privacy vs. control appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. […]


          Behavioral Macro Mark Dow’s microblog, analyzing global macroeconomic and market issues, often through the prism of our cognitive shortcomings

          • Emerging Market Currencies: Size it Right, Sit Tight
            on 4th September 2017 at 3:58 pm

            We are probably still in the sweet spot for the emerging market cycle. This doesn’t exempt us from the risk of corrections. It doesn’t eliminate geopolitical flare ups, trade war rhetoric, or the macro scare du jour. And it doesn’t make September/October calendar effects any less scary. But it does mean if you are an investor the wise choice is to stay in, stay the course.(Pro memoria: the dominant error in professional investing is over-forecasting corrections and then chasing bull markets from a position of weakness.)I’ve given the reasoning for this view here, here, and here. And my broader views on central banks and currency markets are laid out here. Basically, it all boils down to:1.       At this point in the global risk cycle the US looks mature and investors go abroad2.       The Fed is closer to its terminal policy rate than expected; other CBs are at the front end of their normalization processes3.       Investors desperately need yield, and emerging market currencies have it4.       Country differentiation is less important than asset allocation  And demand is strong. I continue to hear of managers wanting to get into the space and/or increase their allocation, while, as PIMCO points out, local markets deepen.Technically, the picture is strong. USDTRY and USDCLP have already broken down. It is likely that currency pairs like USDMXN, USDBRL and USDINR are to follow. Here are the charts:Turkish LiraChilean PesoMexican PesoBrazilian RealIndian Ru […]

          • Sorry for Being the Bearer of Good News
            on 8th August 2017 at 3:27 pm

            I have a childhood friend who loves to rant and complain so much that I jokingly preface giving him good news with an apology. The market feels very much like this right now. The overwhelming sentiment is “cautious”, “we are due”, “valuations are unsustainably high”.But the truth is our collective memory of the GFC has made sentiment a countercyclical stabilizer, stretching out both the financial risk cycle and the economic cycle. Every time we get a little confident or frothy, the scolds come out and remind us of our ‘irresponsibility’ and we all slow our roll for a little while and digest gains. When you think the rest of the world is now going thru the same, drawn out, semi-deleveraging lower-for-longer recovery we experienced–which keeps a damper on our speed limit as well–begrudging good news could go on for a long, long tim […]

          • Credit Spreads and Sticker Shock
            on 31st July 2017 at 3:48 pm

            Credit managers have been suffering for years now. Yeah, I know that sounds strange given the run credit markets have had. But the truth is they’ve been suffering from sticker shock since 2011. “But what can I buy at these levels?” has been their constant refrain. Many have been underperforming their benchmarks and bogeys for years.How did they fall into this trap? Start with the chart of the BBB spread over the last 15 years. Credit managers have anchored on spread levels and yields from the strong phase of the last risk cycle, 2004-2007. Spreads then were 110-130bps. Today they are 138bps. Five-year BBB yields then were 5-6%, whereas today they are 3-3.5%. Credit managers have been forced into chasing yields lower and lower for the last 5 years.What they’ve been overlooking is the risk free rate. The 5 year risk free rate averaged around 4% from 2004-2007, and now we are at 1.8%. If you look at how much risk-free yield (opportunity cost) you are giving up to collect extra spread, it becomes obvious that a spread of 138bps is far, far cheaper when the risk free rate is at 1.8% than when it is 4%. Spread-to-spread comparisons just don’t make sense. Yet that’s what we keep hearing. It’s kind of shocking, really, how many professional managers–especially those with a lot of experience, paradoxically–have been blinded to this simple but powerful consideration.The TL;DR: Credit markets aren’t as rich as you might have thought, and in any event, the credit cycle is likely to end around the time the economic cycle in the US turns, irrespective of valuations. […]

          • Mexican Peso, Brazilian Real, and the EM risk Cycle
            on 31st July 2017 at 12:24 pm

            The forward points on BRL and MXN show, approximately, a 6% breakeven depreciation over the next 12 months. Or, in other word, 6% carry. If you believe emerging markets are in the early phases of the same kind of slow, muddle-through recovery we have seen in the US and increasingly Europe, it is hard to imagine spot underperforming the forwards as a longer-term investment proposition. This is the phase of the global risk cycle where the desire for returns is very high but the forward-looking scope for returns in the US market appears limited.It also looks to me as though there is still tons of scope for further “normalization” from the unwind of the EM bear market. NB: This blog is currently unlocked. It will convert to locked, accessible to @BehavioralMacro subscribers through PremoSocial, in the near future. […]

          • Quick Thought on Oil Stocks
            on 31st July 2017 at 12:15 pm

            Up until recently oil stocks have been about playing/gaming some type of normalization from the 2014-15 crash. Mostly, repeated attempts at knife catching. Over this past month or two it seems investors are finally looking a little beyond this and starting to price in the secular challenges facing global oil supply & demand. 1.       Electric car dominance is no longer a question of “if”.2.       The fuel intensity of global growth continues to decline, as emerging economies catch up with the well-established trends in the advanced ones.3.       Extraction technologies have become vastly more productive and less expansive. From an investment standpoint, this is a headwind—whether the price of oil is rising or not. If the price of oil were to rise, no doubt oil stocks would also, just probably with a lower beta to it. It makes the sector a much less attractive risk-reward proposition, despite how beaten up it has been. NB: This blog is currently unlocked. It will convert to locked, accessible to @BehavioralMacro subscribers through PremoSocial, in the near future.&nbs […]


          market folly Tracking top hedge funds since 2008

          • Hedge Fund Links ~ 1/11/19
            by marketfolly@gmail.com (Market Folly) on 11th January 2019 at 6:50 pm

            The 20% a year stock picker who wishes his edge would disappear [Bloomberg]Deal-master Debbane - the secretive fund manager behind Oprah's WeightWatchers windfall [Forbes]Jeff Vinik plots third comeback [WSJ]Some 2018 performance figures of prominent hedge funds including RenTec [FT]Bridgewater ends 2018 up almost 15% [Reuters]Greenlight down 34% in 2018 [Bloomberg] The money managers to watch in 2019 [WSJ]Muddy Waters up 20% in 2018 [Institutional Investor]Harvard quietly amasses California vineyards [WSJ]Scott Bessent is preparing for the great divergence [AFR]Mega family offices strike Transatlantic partnership [Bloomberg […]

          • Notes From Sohn London Investment Conference
            by marketfolly@gmail.com (Market Folly) on 10th January 2019 at 7:41 pm

            Below are notes from the Sohn London investment conference late last month.  Apologies for the delayed posting.  Click each link to go to that speaker's presentation.Sohn London Investment Conference Notes 2018Vikram Kumar (Kuvari Partners): Short Kier GroupBenoit Colas (PrimeStone Capital): Long Spirent Communications Dureka Carrasquillo (Canada Pension Plan): Long Ferrari Andrew Dickson (Albert Bridge Capital): Long Micro FocusLuke Newman (Janus Henderson): Long Rolls RoyceRachel Reutter (J O Hambro Capital UK Opportunities Fund): Long Smiths Group Per Lekander (Lansdowne Partners): Long Carbon CreditsMaxime Franzetti (Mubadala Capital): Long KorianAndy Brough (Schroder Investment Management): 2 Long IdeasBernie Ahkong (UBS O'Connor): Long Paddy Power Betfair […]

          • Bernie Ahkong Long Paddy Power Betfair: Sohn London Conference
            by marketfolly@gmail.com (Market Folly) on 10th January 2019 at 6:59 pm

            We're posting up notes from the recent Sohn London investment conference.  Next up is Bernie Ahkong of UBS O'Connor who presented a long of Paddy Power Betfair (LON: PPB).Bernie Ahkong's Presentation at Sohn London ConferencePaddy Power Betfair is an international sports betting company. It has 4 divisions: Online; Australia; Retail; US.Ahkong’s buy case was largely based around Paddy’s ability to expand in the US. Today the US only accounts for 3% of profit. Spending on betting is far lower in the US than in the UK or Australia - largely because it has been banned. The Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act was struck down by the Supreme Court earlier this year. It could represent a huge opportunity to expand sports betting in the US.Paddy acquired Fanduel earlier this year. Fanduel runs fantasy league betting in the US with 7m registered customers. Only a fraction of these are active customers, though. Ahkong predicted that Paddy could take 10% market share in the US.On the business outside the US: retail betting shops only account for 12% of Paddy’s profit – there is not as much Brexit risk as some analysts think. Regulatory headwinds in the UK are well known and priced in. The Betfair part of the business faces increased competition. It had a bad H1 but concerns that they are losing share are over stated.Be sure to check out the rest of the presentations from the Sohn London investment conference. […]

          • Andy Brough Long Sports Direct: Sohn London Conference
            by marketfolly@gmail.com (Market Folly) on 10th January 2019 at 6:59 pm

            We're posting up notes from the recent Sohn London investment conference.  Next up is Andy Brough of Schroder Investment Management who presented 2 longs: Sports Direct (LON:SPD) and Restaurant Group (LON:RTN).Andy Brough's Presentation at Sohn London ConferenceLong: Sports DirectMike Ashley is the best retailer he has come across in his 30 years of fund management. Brough likes sports retailing because there are only two quoted companies in the sector – there isn’t the high level of competition you get in general retailing. It’s profitable with gross margins between 40-48%.Mike Ashley’s record of selling his own shares and buying back shares over the years proves he is a good capital allocator. Ashley has been a net buyer of shares recently and currently holds 65%.Why buy Sports Direct now? It’s below the floatation price. It’s buying up other retailers on the cheap: House of Fraser (paid £90m), Evens Cycles (paid £8m - bought from Private Equity that paid £83m three years ago), Debenhams.Brough believes that Sports Direct’s accounting is the most prudent in the FTSE 350. There are no exceptional items in the accounts. If they have a cost they take it on the chin through the P&L. As soon as stock comes into the business it’s automatically written down by 20% - it’s a way of smoothing profits.Innovation is the key to retailing. Sports Direct’s click and collect regime has been applied to House of Fraser and has lifted the average spend per shop to £40.Long: Restaurant Group (LON:RTN)Restaurant Group is the largest concession operator in airports and stations in the UK.CEO, Andy McCue, has an almost forensic-like attention to detail.  He makes good use of data to steer the business.Restaurant Group’s shares have gone from 230p to 140p since the acquisition of Wagamama. Brough believes that Wagamama will become an excellent addition. Some Frankie’s and Benny’s restaurants will be converted into Wagamama’s. Also, underused kitchens at Frankie’s and Benny’s are being put to better use by the Gourmet Burger brand to allow home delivery by Deliveroo.Be sure to check out the rest of the presentations from the Sohn London investment conference. […]

          • Maxime Franzetti Long Korian: Sohn London Conference
            by marketfolly@gmail.com (Market Folly) on 10th January 2019 at 6:58 pm

            We're posting up notes from the recent Sohn London investment conference.  Next up is Maxime Franzetti of Mubadala Capital, an Abu Dhabi Sovereign Wealth Fund with over $ 20 billion of invested capital who presented a long of Korian.Maxime Franzetti's Presentation at Sohn London ConferenceFranzetti runs a concentrated book of long (usually high-quality compounders) and short positions. Korian is their largest position. They made their initial investment over two years ago.Korian is the largest European operator of nursing homes. It has over 76,000 beds spread over 4 countries. They are No. 1 in France and Belgium and No. 2 in Italy.The business is growing organically and margins are increasing. It’s a secular growth story with the business being able to perform well regardless of geo-political events or cyclical trends. The aging population over 80 years in Europe is set to double in the next two decades. They are well positioned to gain from the shift from public sector to private sector provision. Governments are closing public sector homes and issuing licenses to private sector providers. Korian has occupancy rates of 95%. There are barriers to entry in the form of licenses and regulatory requirements. The business is resilient and grew organically during in the financial crisis.The business is at an inflection point. Management were replaced two years ago. The new CEO has been restructuring the business. Korian can grow the top line by 6% per year via volume, increasing prices and M&A. However, pricing is not exclusively in the hands of the business as rises are capped by law in France. The market is still fragmented with the top five players owning a small amount of the total market. There is a long runway for growth. There are economies of scale.Korian itself has attracted interest from private equity. KKR made an offer earlier this year. Franzetti suggested that further offers could follow in the future.Leverage is 3.2x but it is backed by real estate which is worth about half of the market cap. Be sure to check out the rest of the presentations from the Sohn London investment conference. […]


          Meb Faber Research – Stock Market and Investing Blog Stock Market and Investing Blog of Meb Faber

          • Episode #138: Yariv Haim, “You Should Never Try To Reassess Your Risk Appetite When Markets Crash”
            by Meb Faber on 16th January 2019 at 6:00 pm

            Episode #138: Yariv Haim, “You Should Never Try To Reassess Your Risk Appetite When Markets Crash” Guest: Yariv Haim has over ten years of experience in strategic investments, risk management and asset allocation. Yariv is the key executive and investment manager at Sparrows Capital. Date Recorded: 1/10/19 Run-Time: 59:43 To listen to Episode #138 on […] The post Episode #138: Yariv Haim, “You Should Never Try To Reassess Your Risk Appetite When Markets Crash” appeared first on Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog. […]

          • Tweets of the Month
            by Meb Faber on 9th January 2019 at 11:59 pm

            The post Tweets of the Month appeared first on Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog. […]

          • Episode #137: Emily and Morgan Paxhia, “The Growers Who Focused On Creating Efficient Operations Are The Ones That Are Still Around Today”
            by Meb Faber on 9th January 2019 at 6:00 pm

            Episode #137: Emily and Morgan Paxhia, “The Growers Who Focused On Creating Efficient Operations Are The Ones That Are Still Around Today” Guests: Emily and Morgan Paxhia are co-founders and managing partners of Poseidon Asset Management. Emily has reviewed thousands of companies in the cannabis industry and has worked with countless founders in many capacities. […] The post Episode #137: Emily and Morgan Paxhia, “The Growers Who Focused On Creating Efficient Operations Are The Ones That Are Still Around Today” appeared first on Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog. […]

          • You Would Have Missed 961% In Gains Using The CAPE Ratio, And That’s A Good Thing
            by Meb Faber on 7th January 2019 at 4:43 am

            (This is an update to a post from 2016.) 961%. That’s the amount of gains you would have missed had you followed the market timing strategy I’m going to describe in the following article that utilizes the CAPE ratio. Yes, that’s significant. But there’s far more to this story, and I suspect that had you acted […] The post You Would Have Missed 961% In Gains Using The CAPE Ratio, And That’s A Good Thing appeared first on Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog. […]

          • Episode #136: Steve Romick, “Value Investing Is, To Us, Simply Investing With A Margin Of Safety, Believing That You’ve Made An Investment Where It’s Hard To Lose Money Over Time”
            by Meb Faber on 2nd January 2019 at 6:00 pm

            Episode #136: Steve Romick, “Value Investing Is, To Us, Simply Investing With A Margin Of Safety, Believing That You’ve Made An Investment Where It’s Hard To Lose Money Over Time”   Guest: Steve Romick serves as Portfolio Manager for the FPA Crescent Fund, Source Capital, Inc. and the FPA Multi-Advisor Strategy. He was named Morningstar’s […] The post Episode #136: Steve Romick, “Value Investing Is, To Us, Simply Investing With A Margin Of Safety, Believing That You’ve Made An Investment Where It’s Hard To Lose Money Over Time” appeared first on Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog. […]


          Mercenary Trader a community of master traders

          • MACRO LINKS DELAYED POST TEMPLATE
            by Jack Litle on 14th January 2018 at 9:12 am

            Why is it showing the title twice? The Mercenary Macro Links were created by Justice “Jack” Litle, aka Justice Litle / Jack Litle — the founder of Mercenary Trader — to provide a compact summary of daily information flows. To find out more about the... […]


          Monevator Make more money, invest profitably, retire early


          Blog – PensionPartners.com The ATAC Rotation Manager

          • Are We in the Shortest Recession Ever?
            by Michael Gayed on 20th January 2019 at 7:27 pm

            “I’m not afraid of storms, for I’m learning how to sail my ship.” – Louisa May Alcott We’re in a recession!  Things are about to get ugly!  Hold on! No seriously.  Hold on.  For all of the rhetoric around a recession that is either coming or already happening, it’s worth taking a step back, taking […]

          • Government Shutdown: Melt-Up Or Sucker’s Rally?
            by Michael Gayed on 18th January 2019 at 7:50 pm

            “Start every day off with a smile and get it over with.” – W. C. Fields It’s good to know markets can actually move in more than one direction, isn’t it? Last year, for lack of a better way of saying it, simply sucked. The three major declines of February, October, and December were incredibly […]

          • Lions and Tigers and Yield Curve Inversions
            by Charlie Bilello on 14th January 2019 at 7:27 pm

            There are few things investors fear more than an inverted yield curve. Why? 2 reasons… The last 9 recessions in the U.S. were all preceded by an inverted curve (1-yr yield higher than 10-yr yield). Data Sources for all charts/tables herein: FRED, Bloomberg. 2. Weaker stock market returns tend to follow flat/inverted curves. Note: yield curve range is […]

          • The Great Paradox in Markets
            by Charlie Bilello on 11th January 2019 at 10:09 pm

            Over the past few weeks, the stock market has moved from an oversold extreme to an overbought extreme, a function of the violent December sell-off followed by the near-vertical rally. On December 24, the S&P 500 closed at 2,351, down 14.8% on the month and 20% from its all-time high. Notably, the NYSE McCllellan Oscillator […]

          • 2018: The Year in Charts
            by Charlie Bilello on 3rd January 2019 at 6:57 pm

            These are the charts and themes that tell the story of 2018… I. All Good Things… …must come to an end. After 9 straight years of gains, the S&P 500 finished down 4.4% in 2018, its first down year since 2008. The record run from 2009-2017 thus ends in a tie with 1991-1999 for the […]


          Price Action Lab Blog Premium Market Analysis

          • GS Largest Weekly Gain Since 2009 Bottom
            by Price Action Lab Blog on 22nd January 2019 at 8:59 am

            From open to close of last week, GS gained 16.06%, which is the largest such gain since the week ending on March 3, 2009, near the bottom of the financial crisis. Below is the weekly chart of the stock with some return statistics. On a weekly basis and from close to close the stock gained […]GS Largest Weekly Gain Since 2009 Bottom was originally published on Price Action Lab Blog […]

          • Stocks to Watch – January 21, 2019 [Premium Articles]
            by Price Action Lab Blog on 21st January 2019 at 3:41 pm

            Stocks to Watch report is part of Premium Articles and focuses on 84 large cap components of the S&P 100. This report is for week of January 21, 2019.Stocks to Watch – January 21, 2019 [Premium Articles] was originally published on Price Action Lab Blog […]

          • Stock Market Technicals For Week of January 21, 2019 [Premium Articles]
            by Price Action Lab Blog on 20th January 2019 at 8:13 pm

            Weekly analysis of major stock indexes, large cap stocks and popular ETFs. The report includes quantitative results and charts. If you are not a subscriber click here for more information. For access to premium content, you must be a subscriber. Please login if you are already a subscriber or subscribe to continue reading...Stock Market Technicals For Week of January 21, 2019 [Premium Articles] was originally published on Price Action Lab Blog […]

          • Weekly Signals Update – January 21, 2019 [Premium Signals]
            by Price Action Lab Blog on 19th January 2019 at 9:26 am

            Weekly Signals update of six trading strategies with year-to-date performance, open positions and new signals for week of January 21, 2019. For more details click here. For access to premium content, you must be a subscriber. Please login if you are already a subscriber or subscribe to continue reading...Weekly Signals Update – January 21, 2019 [Premium Signals] was originally published on Price Action Lab Blog […]

          • Dual Momentum GEM Failure in 2018
            by Michael Harris on 18th January 2019 at 10:32 am

            As reported recently in a highly acclaimed blog, Dual Momentum GEM with a lookback period of 12 months lost more than the benchmark last year and forced in some cases overriding the systematic model. We show in this article that these failures should be expected since this and related simple momentum models lack intelligence to […]Dual Momentum GEM Failure in 2018 was originally published on Price Action Lab Blog […]


          Blog – Quantifiable Edges Assessing Market Action With Indicators & History

          • An $SPX Sector Breakdown & Visual Of The Rubber-Band Effect
            by Rob Hanna on 16th January 2019 at 6:48 pm

            Below are the nine S&P 500 sector ETFs and their performance for the 14 days heading into the December 24th market bottom, and then their performance for the 14 days since. As you can see, the sectors that were stretched the farthest to the downside have bounced the highest to the upside. The sectors that […]

          • Historical View Of Extreme Short-Term Gains In $OEX Components
            by Rob Hanna on 15th January 2019 at 4:22 pm

            As I write this around 11am EST both NFLX and CELG are threatening to close up > 50% from their December 24th closing price, just 14 trading days ago. While that sometimes happens with speculative smallcap stocks, it is very unusual to see a largecap S&P 100 stock accomplish such strong gains in such a […]

          • January Opex Weak
            by Rob Hanna on 11th January 2019 at 9:00 pm

            Opex week overall has typically been a bullish part of the month for the market. But over the last 20 years, January has been a major exception to this rule. The table below shows results of buying the Friday before options expiration week in January and then selling at the close of option expiration Friday, […]

          • Rare Zweig Breadth Thrust Signal Suggests Bullish Implications
            by Rob Hanna on 8th January 2019 at 1:10 pm

            The strong breadth we have seen recently has caused the 10-day exponential moving average of the NYSE Up Issues % to rise up to 62%. A move through 61.5% after being below 40% within the last 2 weeks is considered a Zweig Breadth Thrust trigger. This is a signal created by Martin Zweig. Over the […]

          • After A New Year Starts On A Good Note
            by Rob Hanna on 3rd January 2019 at 1:36 pm

            Last night’s subscriber letter featured (an expanded version of) the following study, which looks at performance in the 1st couple of days following a positive 1st day of a new year. The stats and curve all suggest some immediate follow-through has been typical. There have now been 10 winners in a row, with the last […]


          • Has The Bear Arrived?
            by Roger Nusbaum on 7th May 2018 at 10:31 pm

            I initiated defensive action in client accounts today with a small purchase. You can read about the trade and my reasoning as to why I believe the odds that a bear market has started have increased. A few pictures from Kauai last week. […]

          • Latest posts at TheMaven
            by Roger Nusbaum on 1st May 2018 at 5:57 pm

            I’ve had a lot going on lately. I have resigned from AdvisorShares (I will have more on that soon) but have still been doing a lot of writing at TheMaven. Some of my recent posts include; A humorous take on hedge funds. A new look at the permanent portfolio. Whether UBI is insane or brilliant. […]

          • Final Random Thoughts
            by Roger Nusbaum on 25th April 2018 at 6:10 pm

            I have resigned from AdvisorShares effective April 30th. This is my last regular blog post at Alpha Baskets, although I will be writing one more weekly Market Update next Monday. I will of course still be posting at TheMaven, Seeking Alpha and of course here at randomroger.com. From the post; This will be my final […]

          • Markets Don’t Close 4/20 On A High
            by Roger Nusbaum on 23rd April 2018 at 4:19 pm

            The weekly Market Update is posted at Alpha Baskets and includes the following; Barron’s devoted a lot of pixels to the latest goings on with the slope of the yield curve. Earlier in the week the 2-10 treasury spread got close to 40 basis points before widening out to 49 basis points at the end […]

          • When Knowing What Will Happen Isn’t Enough
            by Roger Nusbaum on 11th April 2018 at 10:34 pm

            My latest post at Alpha Baskets is up and includes the following; As I write this post on Monday afternoon Bitcoin is just under $6800. At that figure Yahoo Finance has it down 60% from its early January high. Obviously, people were buying at/near the highs. How many of those folks are looking back at […]


          the research puzzle a blog by tom brakke

          • dear prudence
            by tom brakke on 21st January 2019 at 8:59 pm

            An amorphous concept is meant to guide investment decision makers. Some thoughts about its day-to-day application. […]

          • the dangers of maximization
            by tom brakke on 19th November 2018 at 1:27 am

            Searching for the very best manager, model, strategy, or asset class is the classic investment game. But is it the one that we should be playing? […]

          • best and brightest
            by tom brakke on 22nd October 2018 at 9:15 pm

            A look back at a critical failure in American political and military history provides some lessons for those leading and analyzing investment organizations. […]

          • quant questions
            by tom brakke on 29th August 2018 at 11:49 am

            The explosion of interest in quantitative investment management presents a variety of issues for asset owners and those who investigate strategies on their behalf. […]

          • through the glass door
            by tom brakke on 24th July 2018 at 6:39 pm

            With new tools available to dig up information on people and organizations, how should they be used in your analytical process to get a sense of the culture at work? […]


          RiskReversal RiskReversal with Dan Nathan

          • United Technologies (UTX) Q4 Preview
            by Dan on 22nd January 2019 at 6:00 pm

            United Technologies (UTX) will report their Q4 results tomorrow morning before the open, the options market is implying about a 4.5% move this week, which is rich to the average one-day post-earnings move of about ... […]

          • UPS – Fade Q4 Earnings, Buy China Tariff Deadline
            by Dan on 18th January 2019 at 7:37 pm

            Yesterday and today, two reports, one from the U.S. and one from China have raised the potential for a near term deal on trade, from yesterday’s WSJ: U.S. Debates Lifting China Tariffs to Hasten Trade ... […]

          • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q4 Preview
            by Dan on 18th January 2019 at 4:23 pm

            Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) will report their Q4 results Tuesday before the open. The options market is implying about a $4, or about a 3% move in either direction between now and next Friday’s close. ... […]

          • Update – Netflix (NFLX) Q4 Earnings Preview
            by Dan on 17th January 2019 at 7:15 pm

            Netflix (NFLX) will report their Q4 results tonight after the close. The implied one day move is about $29, or about 8%. That can be determined by taking the at the money straddle in the ... […]

          • CSX Corp (CSX) Q4 Earnings Preview
            by Dan on 16th January 2019 at 6:11 pm

            CSX Corp (CSX) will report after the close tonight. The options market is implying about a $3.30 move in either direction or about 5%, which is slightly rich to the 4.5% average one day move ... […]


          The Big Picture Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media

          • MIB Jack Bogle Changed Finance
            by Barry Ritholtz on 22nd January 2019 at 6:00 pm

            Perhaps more than any person in the modern era of finance, Jack Bogle changed the course of investing history. He did it with a relentless focus on saving costs and putting his investors returns ahead of his own. In this week’s Masters in Business podcast, we revisit our 2016 conversation with the creator of the… Read More The post MIB Jack Bogle Changed Finance appeared first on The Big Picture. […]

          • Jack Bogle’s Three Great Insights
            by Barry Ritholtz on 22nd January 2019 at 2:00 pm

            Praise for John Bogle Compounds, Just Like His Returns He showed that average returns were fine, keeping costs low was crucial, and putting investors first was paramount. Bloomberg, January 17, 2019       In a sea of superlatives, one number stands above all others: $1 trillion dollars. That is an estimate of how much… Read More The post Jack Bogle’s Three Great Insights appeared first on The Big Picture. […]

          • 10 Tuesday AM Reads
            by Barry Ritholtz on 22nd January 2019 at 1:17 pm

            My Two-for-Tuesday morning train reads: • What Google Trends can tell us About Stock Picking (Market Brothers Media) • Is the U.S. Stock Market Bubble Bursting? A New Model Suggests “Yes (GMO) • Dallas Cowboys’ Ezekiel Elliott Runs 21 Miles an Hour, But Who Owns That Data? (Bloomberg) • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Crusher of Sacred Cows (Rolling Stone) • The Art of Decision-Making: Life… Read More The post 10 Tuesday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture. […]

          • “Woke” as 2019’s Business Strategy
            by Barry Ritholtz on 22nd January 2019 at 11:00 am

            This is fascinating, via Kara Swisher and Scott Galloway: “70% of our elected officials in the Senate at least represent 30% of the population. Most Red States don’t have a big population — politically conservative values are over represented. Economically, progressives are capturing the majority of the income, so just do the math, there’s a… Read More The post “Woke” as 2019’s Business Strategy appeared first on The Big Picture. […]

          • We Come Not To Praise Indexing, But To…
            by Guest Author on 21st January 2019 at 8:00 pm

                Nicholas Colas is co-founder of DataTrek Research, an independent firm covering global finance and economics.  Colas is a 30+ year veteran of Wall Street, whose experience includes First Boston (now Credit Suisse), SAC Capital (reporting directly to Steve Cohen), and Convergex Group.  His views on indexing are diametrically opposed to mine, but they… Read More The post We Come Not To Praise Indexing, But To… appeared first on The Big Picture. […]


          Above the Market Perspectives on capital markets and personal finance

          • Fear Not
            by Bob Seawright on 16th December 2018 at 10:52 am

            When I was a ninth-grader, my high school showed Alfred Hitchcock’s classic horror film, Psycho, in the school auditorium on a snowy Friday night. I desperately wanted to be and look cool, but when Martin Balsam’s Detective Arbogast climbed the … Continue reading &rarr […]

          • Flirting with the Disinterested
            by Bob Seawright on 28th September 2018 at 4:50 am

            Critics of the financial services industry frequently remind consumers that financial products are typically “sold” rather than “bought,” and implore them not to fall into that trap. The idea is that there is no enormous outcry on the part of consumers demanding to buy … Continue reading &rarr […]

          • In a New York Minute
            by Bob Seawright on 25th September 2018 at 10:32 pm

            On Saturday I went to a terrific concert at Petco Park here in San Diego. It featured a 90 minute set from the latest iteration of the Doobie Brothers (who played their many hits), a 90 minute set from the … Continue reading &rarr […]

          • Dear Future Me
            by Bob Seawright on 22nd September 2018 at 2:04 am

            Bob Dylan hit on a universal truth when he sang about his son and the attraction of remaining young. May your hands always be busy May your feet always be swift May you have a strong foundation When the winds … Continue reading &rarr […]

          • Horrid Facts, Stubborn Facts
            by Bob Seawright on 12th September 2018 at 7:03 am

            Note: This post is a much re-worked and expanded version of prior posts; here, for example. September 11. Two words. Powerful emotions. Searing memories. Evocative stories. Exactly seventeen years ago, on Tuesday, September 11, 2001 and a little before 6:00 a.m., … Continue reading &rarr […]


          Epsilon Theory – Salient Think beyond convention.

          • Mailbag: Life in Trumpland
            by Ben Hunt on 6th March 2017 at 5:17 pm

            The best part about this job, other than being recognized in random bars by 50-year old financial advisors who are always good to buy me a drink (hey, you take your celebrity where you can), is the correspondence with readers. I began writing Epsilon Theory 3+ years ago and from the outset I started getting emails from really smart people, truth-seekers all, making their way in this world of mendacity and inauthenticity without succumbing to it, and it’s given me — if not an optimism — then at least the occasional absence of despair about the world my daughters will inherit. I’m going to make a regular habit of what I always found to be the most enjoyable part of Bill Simmons’ Sports Guy blog — the reader Mailbag. I got more than the usual quota of great emails from my most recent note “The Evolution of Competition,” my take on the political and social polarization running rampant in Trumpworld. So without further ado... The post Mailbag: Life in Trumpland appeared first on Salient. […]

          • I’m Not Predicting, I’m Observing
            by Ben Hunt on 1st March 2017 at 11:33 pm

            George Soros has a great line, one that I’ve stolen many times: “I’m not predicting. I’m observing.” We really don’t have a crystal ball, and it really is a dumb idea to pretend that we do. But what’s not dumb is to keep your eyes and ears open, observing both what the world is telling you (playing the cards) and what other market participants are telling you (playing the players), and reacting accordingly. That’s the heart of tactical investing. The post I’m Not Predicting, I’m Observing appeared first on Salient. […]

          • The Evolution of Competition
            by Ben Hunt on 7th February 2017 at 1:38 am

            The Trump presidency is breaking us. Not because of the specifics of his policies or whether they’re right or wrong or anything like that. It’s breaking us because we now routinely talk past or yell at our friends, family, and fellow citizens, despite vast common ground on the really big ideas of what it means to be Americans or, more fundamentally still, a good human being. Game theory can’t solve this growing discordance or reverse the evolution of competition, but it can identify the issue and maybe, just maybe, show us ways to mitigate the damage. The post The Evolution of Competition appeared first on Salient. […]

          • Fiat Money, Fiat News
            by Ben Hunt on 4th January 2017 at 12:53 am

            The history of money provides instructive lessons for the dominant social issue of the past few months: fake news. There’s an important distinction to be made between politically slanted news, like when the Washington Post writes a silly article about Russians hacking the U.S. electric grid, and outright fakery. The former is fiat news, which is to “real news” what fiat currencies like dollars and euros and yen are to “real money” like a gold coin. Fake news is something different. Fake news is counterfeit news, which is to fiat news what counterfeit bank notes are to fiat currencies. The fiat news business is booming. As a result, the counterfeit news business is booming, too. And if the history of fiat money and counterfeit money is any guide, we ain’t seen nothing yet. The post Fiat Money, Fiat News appeared first on Salient. […]

          • The Art of the Probe
            by Ben Hunt on 8th December 2016 at 11:48 pm

            I’ve written a lot about The Common Knowledge Game – here, here, and here – because it’s the game of markets, i.e., it’s the central contribution of game theory to understanding how markets work. I’ve also written a lot about new technologies and new perspectives – here, here, and here – that help us see The Common Knowledge Game in action. But until today I’ve never written on a basic question: how can you be a better player in the game of markets? This is my first cut at an answer, and along the way I’ll pull examples from the game of poker and the game of nations. I think it’s a fun paper and hope you find it useful. The post The Art of the Probe appeared first on Salient. […]



            SMB Training Blog Lessons from the trading desk

            • Ten trading lessons from observing an Australian (ASX) Equities trader
              by Bella on 21st January 2019 at 10:55 pm

              I am in Sydney on business, meeting with trading firms and traders.  Yesterday, I had the opportunity to stand (literally) with Austin Mitchum, @AustinMitchyblu, and observe/participate in his trading of ASX equities.  I thought I would share a few observations. 1. One Good Trade Somebody coined this phrase somewhere or wrote a book about it.  Strikes me as genius, so ... Read More The post Ten trading lessons from observing an Australian (ASX) Equities trader appeared first on SMB Training Blog. […]

            • 9 ideas to improve your trading from yearly reviews on the desk
              by Bella on 18th January 2019 at 6:09 pm

                At the start of year, our firm meets with our traders to review their goals for 2019.  We trade in teams so we meet in teams.  Each trader goes over their goals before their Team Leader and other teammates.  Our Floor Manager, Dr. Steenbarger and I participate and offer feedback.  Let’s give you an inside look into what we ... Read More The post 9 ideas to improve your trading from yearly reviews on the desk appeared first on SMB Training Blog. […]

            • Options Tribe Webinar: SMB Options Desk Trader Andrew Falde: Trend Following Plus Income
              by smbcapital on 17th January 2019 at 5:30 pm

              SMB Options Desk Trader Andrew Falde returns to the Options Tribe to discuss an options trading approach which improves upon the performance of trend following and momentum systems by adding positive theta and defined risk. The post Options Tribe Webinar: SMB Options Desk Trader Andrew Falde: Trend Following Plus Income appeared first on SMB Training Blog. […]

            • How to short a stock that has run up too much: a trade example with MBOT
              by smbcapital on 17th January 2019 at 4:06 pm

              In this video, Mike Bellafiore goes into detail and teaches how to make a short trade in MBOT without getting your "head ripped off". The post How to short a stock that has run up too much: a trade example with MBOT appeared first on SMB Training Blog. […]

            • Weekend learnings lessons from our trading desk
              by Bella on 12th January 2019 at 11:33 am

              The weekend is an opportunity to improve as a trader, so let’s get to that with some ideas for you, The quote stuck in my head, repeated often on the desk to our traders, and that can help you is: “Effective best practices turned into habit will drive your trading progress in 2019!”- Mike Bellafiore, SMB Capital Here is a ... Read More The post Weekend learnings lessons from our trading desk appeared first on SMB Training Blog. […]


            • Volatility and Lower Prices
              by JD Gardner on 25th October 2018 at 4:43 pm

              According to Investopedia, the term risk asset generally refers to assets that have a significant degree of price volatility, such as... […]

            • Impact and Behavior Gap
              by JD Gardner on 22nd October 2018 at 5:57 pm

              A relentless pursuit for impact – that’s the most encompassing explanation of how we spend our time at Aptus. What does... […]

            • The Perfect Portfolio
              by JD Gardner on 7th September 2018 at 4:38 pm

              We’ve figured out what the perfect portfolio looks like… First let me say this – the perfect portfolio on paper is... […]

            • Defining Uncertainty
              by JD Gardner on 9th July 2018 at 1:59 am

              We use derivatives to turn uncertainty into known quantities.  Yes, we used a financial dirty word, but derivatives used correctly can... […]

            • Preparing for Success
              by JD Gardner on 30th March 2018 at 7:20 pm

              I can’t take credit for the post/thoughts below.  The credit goes to our Ghost Writer.  I’m kidding – he’s actually the... […]


            The Irrelevant Investor Just another WordPress site

            • In or Out
              by Michael Batnick on 22nd January 2019 at 3:28 pm

              “Should I get out of the market?” This is a question that ought to be eliminated from the investor lexicon. Healthy investing, like everything else, is all about moderation. Take Obi Wan’s advice, “Only a Sith deals in absolutes.” In a perfect world  you would determine what you want from your life and how much...... The post In or Out appeared first on The Irrelevant Investor. […]

            • Tumultuous Times
              by Michael Batnick on 21st January 2019 at 3:14 pm

              Take a look at the table below of the worst days for the stock market over the last ~50 years. You’ll see the usual suspects, Black Monday, the Asian currency crisis in 1997, the Russian crisis in 1998, and 5 days from the second half of 2008. Then there’s one that looks like it doesn’t...... The post Tumultuous Times appeared first on The Irrelevant Investor. […]

            • These Are the Goods
              by Michael Batnick on 20th January 2019 at 1:00 pm

              Articles Research has shown that female investors are more likely than men to focus on a family’s financial goals over their own absolute investment performance By Blair duQuesnay Consider saving to be a bill you have to pay. Your spending is the negotiable part. By Daniel Egan If you had a plan in place, stick to it; if...... The post These Are the Goods appeared first on The Irrelevant Investor. […]

            • Bogle’s Big Mistake
              by Michael Batnick on 19th January 2019 at 2:28 pm

              The world lost a legend this week. Jack Bogle had a greater impact on the average investor than anyone who ever lived. Bogle, however, was not an overnight sensation. The index fund, which he is best known for, wasn’t created until his fifth decade on the planet. I wanted to share the challenges he overcame...... The post Bogle’s Big Mistake appeared first on The Irrelevant Investor. […]

            • Now Show Japan
              by Michael Batnick on 18th January 2019 at 4:00 pm

              I did a post a couple of weeks ago about the potential benefits of dollar cost averaging. To recap: It’s automated It’s a great way to force you to save money It gives you the ability to systematically buy low, with the cherry being that you’re buying more the lower stocks go. I explained that...... The post Now Show Japan appeared first on The Irrelevant Investor. […]


            The Reformed Broker I help people invest and manage portfolios for them.


            Newfound Research While other asset managers focus on alpha, our first focus is on managing risk.


            A Teachable Moment Just another WordPress site

            • Relentless Optimism
              by Dina Isola on 22nd January 2019 at 12:22 pm

              Dina here… Like most people, I have a real soft spot for the underdog. Yanely Espinal has a unique story to tell, but the theme of trying to make a better life is at the core, and that story never grows old for me. Her parents immigrated to the U.S. from the Dominican Republic and had...... […]

            • It’s Monday Again…..When Is My Retirement?
              by Anthony Isola on 21st January 2019 at 12:11 pm

              A huge part of a happy retirement is helping others less fortunate than yourself. Use the examples of Martin Luther King Jr. and the recently deceased Jack Bogle to help guide you in your journey. Part of the joy from a retirement nest egg is the ability to give some of it away. Don’t let...... […]

            • Do We Need To Know This For The Test?
              by Anthony Isola on 17th January 2019 at 9:02 pm

              Students and Investors often miss the point of what’s really important. Short term thinking regarding test grades or annual portfolio performance leads to future disappointment. A few weeks ago, I  spent the day teaching five middle school classes about investing. Being away from this for a bit, I needed some oxygen when I got home....... […]

            • Invest Like a Jomo-Sapien
              by Anthony Isola on 14th January 2019 at 1:09 pm

              Reacting to someone else’s cues won’t make you rich; resisting them just might. Get ready for Jomo – the joy of missing out. When joy replaces fear, good things start to happen. Danish psychology professor, Svend Brinkmann, published a paper outlining the benefits of a Jomo lifestyle.  Miranda Green of the Financial Times wrote about his findings:...... […]

            • It’s Monday Again…..When Is My Retirement?
              by Anthony Isola on 14th January 2019 at 12:19 pm

              If you think to accumulate retirement savings is difficult, what are you going to do when you need to decumulate? Determining how much money you can spend in retirement is a difficult puzzle. Start solving it by reading this week’s terrific links. How nudges can help with retirement spending. UCLA Anderson Do you have enough international exposure...... […]


            Turing Finance Computer Science meets Quantitative Finance

            • Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis with R, Part One
              by StuartReid on 20th November 2016 at 12:00 pm

              Whilst working on some code for my Masters I kept thinking, "it would be really awesome if there was an R package which just consumed a price series and produced a data.frame of results from multiple randomness tests at multiple frequencies". ... Read More The post Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis with R, Part One appeared first on Turing Finance. […]

            • The Promise of Computing
              by StuartReid on 19th September 2016 at 9:00 pm

              You would be forgiven for thinking that Moore's law is a law like Newton's laws. It really does seem that as surely as an apple will fall to the ground, so too shall our computers, phones, tablets, and (now) watches capacity increase year-after-year ... Read More The post The Promise of Computing appeared first on Turing Finance. […]

            • Lossless Compression Algorithms and Market Efficiency?
              by StuartReid on 18th April 2016 at 3:00 pm

              In Hacking The Random Walk Hypothesis we applied the NIST suite of cryptographic tests for randomness to binarized daily market returns. Overall the NIST suite failed on the data. This result was taken to mean that markets are not quite the ... Read More The post Lossless Compression Algorithms and Market Efficiency? appeared first on Turing Finance. […]

            • Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks
              by StuartReid on 8th February 2016 at 8:00 am

              Because volatility seems to cluster in real life as well as the markets, it has been a while since my last article. Sorry about that. Today we will be taking our first giant leap along A Non-Random Walk down Wall Street. Read More The post Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks appeared first on Turing Finance. […]

            • How to be a Quant
              by StuartReid on 6th October 2015 at 10:00 pm

              Since writing about my experience writing the CFA Level I exam in June, I have received many emails from people interested in finding out how to become a quant. To some extent this post will answer that question. That said, this post is actually not ... Read More The post How to be a Quant appeared first on Turing Finance. […]


            UpsideTrader My Macro Visions, technicals, and The Long and Short Of It

            • Stocks Up and Bezos Is Single
              by Joe Donohue on 10th January 2019 at 11:02 pm

              Dow: +122.80... Nasdaq: +28.99... S&P: +11.68... The S&P 500 recouped an early loss, putting the broad index on track to close higher for a fifth straight day after Fed Chairman Powell reiterated the Fed's willingness to adjust its pace of interest-rate increases if economic conditions weaken. Powell’s comments also added to optimism that the Fed is looking to avoid... The post Stocks Up and Bezos Is Single appeared first on UpsideTrader. […]

            • Still Hard To Trust
              by Joe Donohue on 3rd January 2019 at 12:17 am

              Dow: +18.78... Nasdaq: +30.66... S&P: +3.18... The market caught a very weak opening, then some buyers stepped up, but it still wasn't confidence inspiring. The China kerfuffle, (contraction in their economy) was one of the reasons we saw a weak open, so I still think the market is as good as its last headline. I still think we see... The post Still Hard To Trust appeared first on UpsideTrader. […]

            • Yield Curves, Recessions, and 200 Day Moving Averages
              by Joe Donohue on 5th December 2018 at 2:21 am

              Dow: -799.36... Nasdaq: -283.09... S&P: -90.31... The worm turns fast on Wall Street, doesn't it?  Almost to the point of it being kind of unbelievable.  The Dow and SPX broke their 200-day-moving averages today like a hot knife through butter. The Dow lost 3.1%, SPX lost 3.2%, the Nasdaq lost 3.8%, and the Russell 2000 lost 4.4%. Here's why... The post Yield Curves, Recessions, and 200 Day Moving Averages appeared first on UpsideTrader. […]

            • Consolidation Day-the V Is Still Fine
              by Joe Donohue on 9th November 2018 at 2:17 am

              Dow: +10.92... Nasdaq: -39.87... S&P: -7.06... It was a down day, for the most part, today as the market shook off the recent up move.  I told you to expect some down to sideways action short term as we shake off the rally move.  It's normal.  It's consolidation.  The McClellan Oscillator also got overbought. Some will say that the lack of... The post Consolidation Day-the V Is Still Fine appeared first on UpsideTrader. […]

            • The Beatings Will Stop as Soon As Your Morale Improves
              by Joe Donohue on 18th October 2018 at 9:35 pm

              Sammy the speculator sold all his blockchain stocks and Bitcoin at the bottom and is now hoping for the best with a massive overweight in pot stocks near all-time highs. Dow: -327.23... Nasdaq: -157.56... S&P: -40.13... SPX closed right on its 200-day moving average.  The Dow and Nazzy are just above theirs.  The bear flag on SPX also broke... The post The Beatings Will Stop as Soon As Your Morale Improves appeared first on UpsideTrader. […]


            • Choose the right custom made business sign to enjoy the benefits
              by jeff pierce on 18th January 2019 at 7:34 pm

              By Charlie Brown The correct business signage is perfect 24/7 advertisement your venture campaign needs. And the buck doesn’t stop rolling only there. The growing trend of impulse shopping is something businesses do cash in on. How to get customers to indulge in the impulse buys at your store or invest in the additional services on offer? The […]

            • How does diversifying your investment portfolio protect your capital?
              by jeff pierce on 13th January 2019 at 9:31 am

              By Charlie Brown Investment is a smart way to secure your future. There are a few tenets of investing you should know before you invest your money you should find out about the different financial instruments. The share market can be a risky place for newbie investors. Without enough diversification, you will be putting all your eggs in […]

            • Cashing out on the property – why companies that buy houses are the best bet for home sellers
              by jeff pierce on 14th December 2018 at 7:44 am

              By Charlie Brown For realizing the maximum value from the property, homeowners must be ready to handle the selling project by themselves without taking help from real estate agents. Property selling is special because it must go through complicated procedures that take time and locating buyers need some good marketing skills. Moreover, you must be aware of the […]

            • 4 Tips for Balancing Your Remittance Payments with Other Expenses and Investments
              by jeff pierce on 11th December 2018 at 6:47 am

              By Susan Melody No matter how you slice it, managing your investments can be tough. This is especially true when you’re juggling major financial commitments to support your family. And it’s immigrants and expats supporting their families back home that know this all too well. Just because you’re tasked with providing remittance does not necessarily […]

            • A Handy Guide to Hiring the Right Type of Model by Knowing Your Purpose
              by jeff pierce on 4th December 2018 at 3:21 am

              By Charlie Brown Brands, not only fashion but into any product or services under the sun, now require the service of models to be present at their trade shows or promotional campaigns. These attractive and intelligent professionals help you to get more traffic, answer their queries, and interact with your potential customers to generate more leads and even sales. […]



            Above list excludes a few well known blogs but hosted on Blogspot that seems to not gel with the plugin I am using to extract the blog posts. Listing them in Alphabetical Order below

            Musings on Markets – Aswath Damodaran

            The Brooklyn Investor

            Econompic Data

            Jesse’s Cafe Americain

            Jonathan Clements

            Severian Asset Management

            StockBee

            The Chart Pattern Trader

            The Art of Trading

            VIX and more